Euro: Wales host Croatia in a big decider

Turkey clinch a spot in Euro 24 if they  beat Latvia tonight. That would also mean that Luxembourg clinch at least a spot in the playoff.

Spain clinch a spot in Euro 24 if they beat Norway.

Scotland clinch a spot in Euro 24 if Norway fail to beat Spain. That would also mean that Finland secure a spot in the playoff.

There are four important matches as detailed below. Croatia can practically clinch the finals with an away win in Wales. Poland need to beat Moldova to have a good chance.

Group D

Wales vs Croatia (16.2%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (41%)
Croatia	82%	99.6%	>99.99%
Wales	66%	39%	37%
Turkey	94%	96.3%	98.9%

Group D

Turkey vs Latvia (10.3%)	Home Win (82%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (6%)
Turkey	100%	86%	72%
Croatia	93%	97.9%	98.9%

Group A

Norway vs Spain (4.5%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Scotland	92%	100%	100%
Norway	32%	21%	21%
Spain	99.2%	99.99%	100%

Group E

Poland vs Moldova (3.9%)	Home Win (93%)	Draw (5%)	Away Win (2%)
Czechia	68%	94%	96%
Poland	72%	45%	41%
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	5%

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	99.61%	80%	12	18	19.4	21	21	21.4
Scotland	100%	97.6%	20%	15	16	18.1	19	21	9.5
Norway	77%	2.8%	< 1%	10	10	11.8	13	16	1.5
Georgia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	4	7	8.2	10	13	-8.3
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.5	1	6	-24.1

Spain clinch Euro 24 if they win against Norway (60%)
Scotland clinch Euro 24 if Spain draw (or win) against Norway (81%)

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	100%	100%	>99.99%	18	22	23	24	24	18.5
Netherlands	100%	90%	< 1%	9	16	16.7	18	18	10.1
Greece	100%	10%	< 1%	12	12	13.5	15	18	4.8
Ireland	16%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	6	6	9	-3.6
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-29.8

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	99.89%	88%	13	19	19.6	22	22	20.4
Italy	100%	78%	12%	10	14	15.6	17	19	8.9
Ukraine	98.1%	21%	< 1%	7	12	13.2	14	16	1.8
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8.3	10	16	-10.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	6	-20.3

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	86%	61%	10	16	16.9	19	19	12.4
Turkey	100%	95.5%	27%	13	16	16.4	17	19	4.3
Wales	99.92%	18%	12%	7	11	12.4	14	16	1
Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	7.9	8	13	-5
Latvia	69%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.6	4	9	-12.6

Turkey clinch Euro 24 if they win against Latvia (82%)

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Albania	99.96%	99.19%	88%	13	16	17.4	19	19	10.7
Czechia	>99.99%	51%	8%	8	14	14.6	15	17	8.6
Poland	>99.99%	49%	3.4%	9	12	13.6	15	15	3
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8	9	16	-8.6
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.6	4	9	-13.7

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	100%	99.51%	16	20	21.4	22	22	18.7
Austria	>99.99%	99.56%	< 1%	13	16	17.2	19	19	9.2
Sweden	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	10	11.1	12	15	4.4
Azerbaijan	39%	< 1%	< 1%	4	4	5.4	7	13	-13.2
Estonia	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1	1	2.1	3	7	-19.1

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Hungary	100%	99.81%	99.0%	13	19	20.2	22	22	12.4
Serbia	100%	93%	< 1%	10	14	15.2	16	16	8.7
Montenegro	7%	7%	< 1%	8	11	11.2	12	17	-2.2
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5	5	5.6	6	11	-8.4
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3	3	8	-10.5

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	98.6%	91%	16	23	23.9	25	25	18.5
Slovenia	85%	63%	8%	16	19	20.2	22	25	9.7
Finland	99.96%	37%	< 1%	12	18	19.5	21	21	11.3
Kazakhstan	100%	1.9%	< 1%	12	15	15.7	16	21	2
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	7	8.5	10	15	-3.9
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.2	0	7	-37.6

Finland clinch at least playoff if Spain draw (or win) against Norway (81%)

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	99.0%	93%	14	22	23.5	26	26	19.8
Israel	100%	54%	3.5%	11	16	17.5	19	23	1.8
Romania	47%	47%	3.7%	13	16	17.5	19	22	6.4
Kosovo	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	7	10	10.6	12	16	-1.6
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5	8	8.4	9	14	-9.2
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	2.9	3	11	-17.1

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	100%	100%	21	28	28.9	30	30	34
Slovakia	61%	61%	< 1%	13	16	17.2	19	22	5.1
Luxembourg	97.3%	33%	< 1%	11	14	15.8	17	20	-7.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	6%	< 1%	9	12	13	15	18	-2.4
Iceland	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	10	11	13	16	1.1
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.6	1	9	-29.9

Luxembourg clinch at least playoff if Turkey win against Latvia (82%)

 Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	90%	10%	100%	10%
D	Croatia	86%	14%	100%	14%
A	Spain	99.61%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
C	Italy	78%	22%	100%	21%
H	Denmark	98.6%	1.4%	100%	1.3%
J	Portugal	100%		100%
F	Belgium	100%		100%
G	Hungary	99.81%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
I	Switzerland	99.0%	1.0%	100%	< 1%
	Germany
E	Poland	49%	51%	>99.99%	47%
B	France	100%		100%
F	Austria	99.56%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
E	Czechia	51%	49%	>99.99%	45%
C	England	99.89%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
D	Wales	18%	81%	99.92%	55%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	54%	46%	100%	46%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	6%	94%	100%	94%
G	Serbia	93%	7%	100%	3.9%
A	Scotland	97.6%	2.4%	100%	1.3%
H	Finland	37%	63%	99.96%	33%
C	Ukraine	21%	77%	98.1%	18%
E	Albania	99.19%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%
A	Norway	2.8%	74%	77%	6%
H	Slovenia	63%	23%	85%	< 1%
B	Ireland		16%	16%	< 1%
J	Iceland	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	7%	< 1%	7%
I	Romania	47%		47%
F	Sweden	< 1%		< 1%
D	Armenia	< 1%		< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%	100%
B	Greece	10%	90%	100%	90%
D	Turkey	95.5%	4.5%	100%	< 1%
H	Kazakhstan	1.9%	98.1%	100%	9%
J	Luxembourg	33%	64%	97.3%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	39%	39%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	< 1%	3.8%	3.8%
G	Bulgaria		< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands
C	North Macedonia	< 1%		< 1%
J	Slovakia	61%		61%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania	< 1%		< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		96.9%	96.9%
D	Latvia		69%	69%
E	Moldova	< 1%		< 1%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein