Euro: crucial match between Slovenia and Finland in Group H

Portugal, France and Belgium have clinched qualification. Portugal have clinched group win and thereby at least a spot in seed group 2.

The most interesting match tonight is the crucial match in Group H between Slovenia and Finland. If Finland win they have almost clinched a spot 2 (>98%).

For the playoff, it looks like two of the spots from League A will be taken by Wales and one of Poland and Czechia. If all the other teams qualify by a top-2 spot in the group, it means that the remaining two playoff spots go to Estonia and Latvia.

In League B, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia, and Scotland are all guaranteed a spot in the playoff if needed. Finland need that one of those finish top-2 and it seems very unlikely that both Serbia and Scotland miss that. Ukraine also seems to have very good chances to get a spot in the playoff, whereas Norway more have a 6 in 7 probability.

Group H

Slovenia vs Finland (33.3%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Finland	56%	88%	98.2%
Slovenia	61%	22%	12%

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	99.62%	79%	12	18	19.4	21	21	21.4
Scotland	100%	97.6%	20%	15	16	18.1	19	21	9.5
Norway	89%	2.8%	< 1%	10	10	11.8	13	16	1.5
Georgia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	4	7	8.2	10	13	-8.3
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.5	1	6	-24.1

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	100%	100%	>99.99%	18	22	23	24	24	18.5
Netherlands	100%	90%	< 1%	9	16	16.7	18	18	10.1
Greece	100%	10%	< 1%	12	12	13.5	15	18	4.8
Ireland	17%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	6	6	9	-3.6
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-29.8

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	99.90%	88%	13	19	19.6	22	22	20.4
Italy	100%	78%	12%	7	14	15.5	17	19	9.3
Ukraine	99.38%	22%	< 1%	7	12	13.2	14	16	1.8
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8.3	10	16	-10.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.4	0	9	-20.6

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Croatia	100%	86%	61%	10	16	16.9	19	19	12.4
Turkey	100%	95.5%	26%	13	16	16.4	17	19	4.3
Wales	99.86%	18%	12%	7	11	12.4	14	16	1
Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	7.9	8	13	-5
Latvia	67%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.6	4	9	-12.6

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Albania	99.98%	99.19%	88%	13	16	17.4	19	19	10.7
Czechia	99.99%	51%	8%	8	14	14.6	15	17	8.6
Poland	99.99%	49%	3.4%	9	12	13.6	15	15	3
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8	9	16	-8.6
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.6	4	9	-13.7

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	100%	99.52%	16	20	21.4	22	22	18.7
Austria	>99.99%	99.58%	< 1%	13	16	17.2	19	19	9.2
Sweden	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	10	11.1	12	15	4.4
Azerbaijan	39%	< 1%	< 1%	4	4	5.4	7	13	-13.2
Estonia	96.2%	< 1%	< 1%	1	1	2.1	3	7	-19.1

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Hungary	>99.99%	98.2%	72%	10	17	18.7	20	22	11.6
Serbia	100%	96.4%	28%	10	16	16.5	17	19	9.5
Montenegro	5%	5%	< 1%	8	11	11.2	12	17	-2.2
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	5	5.4	6	11	-6.7
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3.1	4	11	-12.2

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	97.9%	86%	14	23	23.7	25	25	19.9
Finland	99.99%	70%	9%	12	19	20.7	22	24	14
Slovenia	75%	30%	4.7%	13	17	18.8	20	25	7
Kazakhstan	100%	2.2%	< 1%	12	15	15.8	16	24	0.6
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	7	8.4	10	15	-2.5
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.2	0	9	-39

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	>99.99%	99.0%	93%	14	22	23.5	26	26	19.8
Israel	100%	54%	3.5%	11	16	17.5	19	23	1.8
Romania	47%	47%	3.7%	13	16	17.5	19	22	6.4
Kosovo	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	7	10	10.6	12	16	-1.7
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5	8	8.4	9	14	-9.2
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	2.9	3	11	-17.1

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	100%	>99.99%	21	28	28.9	30	30	34
Slovakia	61%	61%	< 1%	13	16	17.2	19	22	5.1
Luxembourg	97.3%	33%	< 1%	11	14	15.8	17	20	-7.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	6%	< 1%	9	12	13	15	18	-2.4
Iceland	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	7	10	11	13	16	1.1
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.6	1	9	-29.9

 

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	90%	10%	10%
D	Croatia	86%	14%	14%
A	Spain	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Italy	78%	22%	22%
H	Denmark	97.9%	2.1%	2.0%
J	Portugal	100%
F	Belgium	100%
G	Hungary	98.2%	1.8%	1.7%
I	Switzerland	99.0%	1.0%	< 1%
	Germany
E	Poland	49%	51%	47%
B	France	100%
F	Austria	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Czechia	51%	49%	45%
C	England	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Wales	18%	81%	54%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	54%	46%	46%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	6%	94%	94%
G	Serbia	96.4%	3.6%	2.0%
A	Scotland	97.6%	2.4%	1.3%
H	Finland	70%	30%	16%
C	Ukraine	22%	77%	30%
E	Albania	99.19%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Norway	2.8%	86%	11%
H	Slovenia	30%	45%	1.1%
B	Ireland		17%	< 1%
J	Iceland	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	5%	< 1%
I	Romania	47%	< 1%
F	Sweden	< 1%
D	Armenia	< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%
B	Greece	10%	90%	90%
D	Turkey	95.5%	4.5%	< 1%
H	Kazakhstan	2.2%	97.8%	9%
J	Luxembourg	33%	64%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan		39%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	< 1%	3.9%
G	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands		< 1%
C	North Macedonia	< 1%
J	Slovakia	61%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania	< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		96.2%
D	Latvia		67%
E	Moldova	< 1%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein