Euro: Can Luxembourg win in Iceland

The most important match is between Iceland and Luxembourg, where Luxembourg need to win to keep pace with Slovakia in the race for the 2nd spot in Group J. 

In Group F, Austria and Belgium play a group final where the winner clinch qualifications.

Portugal clinch at least a place in seed pot 3 if they take a point against Slovakia.

France clinch at least a place in seed pot 3 if they take a point against Netherlands and Greece fail to win against Ireland.

Group J

Iceland vs Luxembourg (4.6%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Luxembourg	26%	35%	50%
Slovakia	68%	63%	50%
Iceland	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	100%	99.96%	84%	15	19	21	22	24	16.8
Netherlands	100%	98.0%	15%	9	17	18.5	21	21	11.7
Greece	100%	2.0%	< 1%	9	10	11.6	13	18	2.4
Ireland	16%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	7.6	9	12	-1.2
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	7	-29.8

France clinch at least pot 3 if they draw (or win) against Netherlands and Ireland draw (or win) against Greece (33%)

 

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	99.94%	80%	13	19	20.4	22	22	18.7
Austria	>99.99%	99.71%	20%	13	17	18	19	22	9.3
Sweden	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	10	11.1	12	15	4.4
Estonia	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.9	5	10	-16.5
Azerbaijan	31%	< 1%	< 1%	1	2	3.4	5	13	-15.8

Belgium clinch Euro 24 if they win against Austria (60%)
Austria clinch Euro 24 if they win against Belgium (19%)

 Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	100%	99.92%	18	28	28.6	30	30	35.6
Slovakia	64%	64%	< 1%	13	16	17.4	19	25	3.4
Luxembourg	96.9%	29%	< 1%	10	14	15.5	17	22	-8.9
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	4.7%	< 1%	6	11	12.7	15	18	-1.7
Iceland	3.0%	2.1%	< 1%	6	11	12.1	13	18	2.2
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.8	1	10	-30.6

Portugal clinch at least pot 3 if they draw (or win) against Slovakia (96%)