Afcon: Egypt enter the stage

Key match for Nigeria today and in Group B Egypt enter the stage against Mozambique.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Ivory Coast	1	+2	3	< 1%	8%	24%	67%	98.7%
Nigeria	0	0	0	15%	28%	37%	20%	77%
Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0	26%	36%	27%	11%	62%
Guinea-Bissau	1	-2	0	59%	29%	11%	1.0%	29%

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.22; Nigeria have 3.1% if they win against Equatorial Guinea; otherwise 1.8%
1.12; Nigeria have 2.8% if they draw (or win) against Equatorial Guinea; otherwise 1.5%

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Egypt	0	0	0	4.8%	12%	27%	56%	93%
Cape Verde	0	0	0	25%	34%	26%	14%	65%
Ghana	0	0	0	15%	27%	34%	24%	78%
Mozambique	0	0	0	55%	27%	13%	5.0%	35%

Egypt

Egypt - Mozambique
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
99.1%	99.0%	98.6%	97.9%	86%	68%	Gha - Cap
99.1%	99.0%	98.6%	97.9%	87%	70%	94%	Home
99.1%	99.0%	98.6%	98.1%	86%	66%	93%	Draw
99.1%	98.9%	98.7%	97.9%	86%	67%	93%	Away

Cape Verde

Ghana - Cape Verde
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
37%	41%	45%	49%	66%	90%	92%	94%	94%	Egy - Moz
38%	42%	46%	51%	67%	90%	92%	94%	94%	65%	Home
38%	41%	43%	47%	66%	91%	92%	93%	93%	64%	Draw
33%	37%	40%	43%	65%	90%	92%	93%	93%	62%	Away

Ghana

Ghana - Cape Verde
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
97%	96.6%	95.7%	94%	75%	58%	54%	50%	46%	Egy - Moz
97%	96.7%	95.8%	94%	75%	60%	55%	51%	48%	79%	Home
96%	96%	96%	95%	74%	54%	51%	48%	44%	77%	Draw
96%	96%	95%	94%	74%	50%	48%	45%	40%	76%	Away

Mozambique

Egypt - Mozambique
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
22%	24%	27%	30%	45%	75%	78%	80%	80%	Gha - Cap
22%	24%	27%	30%	45%	75%	78%	80%	80%	35%	Home
23%	25%	28%	31%	44%	76%	78%	79%	79%	35%	Draw
22%	23%	26%	29%	44%	75%	78%	81%	80%	34%	Away