PL: City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Spurs qualify for CL (41%)

City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Spurs are favourites to reach Champions League. That combination end up in CL in 41% of the simulations. See alternativ outcomes at the bottom.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
West Ham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 more than expected
Luton: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Fulham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Arsenal: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
Sheffield United: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
43	Man City	82.9	+51	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.65%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%
48	Liverpool	80.6	+44	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.88%	98.9%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	99.77%
43	Arsenal	74.1	+34	< 1%	99.83%	99.35%	97.4%	88%	4.8%	< 1%	3.5%	96.1%
43	Aston Villa	71.1	+23	< 1%	99.08%	97.2%	91%	70%	1.5%	< 1%	11%	88%
40	Tottenham	67.0	+19	< 1%	95.5%	89%	74%	34%	< 1%	3.1%	26%	67%
35	West Ham	60.5	+6	< 1%	67%	46%	18%	5%	< 1%	11%	38%	23%
29	Brighton	56.9	+9	< 1%	42%	23%	8%	1.7%	< 1%	11%	28%	16%
32	Man United	56.0	-4	< 1%	31%	15%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	26%	3.5%
29	Newcastle	55.2	+13	< 1%	31%	15%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	23%	3.8%
31	Chelsea	54.1	+3	< 1%	22%	10%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	19%	2.1%
29	Wolves	51.3	-4	< 1%	9%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	8%	< 1%
22	Bournemouth	46.2	-17	1.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	4.4%	< 1%
24	Fulham	44.6	-13	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	1.1%	< 1%
21	Crystal Palace	44.3	-13	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Brentford	44.3	-10	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Forest	38.2	-21	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
17	Everton	37.9	-9	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
16	Luton	32.2	-30	70%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Burnley	29.0	-33	87%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Sheffield United	24.2	-50	97.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	81%	36%	6%		16%	6%
Liverpool	88%	51%	16%	1.9%	10%
Arsenal	14%	< 1%
Aston Villa	40%	3.0%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	4.8%	< 1%			< 1%
West Ham	9%	< 1%
Brighton	14%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	4.9%	< 1%			< 1%
Newcastle	1.9%
Chelsea	27%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Wolves	2.0%
Bournemouth	3.3%
Fulham	9%	< 1%
Forest	1.7%
Everton	2.6%
Luton	< 1%
Sheffield United	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Liverpool vs Chelsea (2.3%)	Home Win (67%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Liverpool	38%	27%	22%
Man City	57%	65%	69%

	Man City			Liverpool			Arsenal			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
93	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	3.0%	1.5%	99.5%	1.2%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	4.8%	1.8%	99.2%	2.1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	8%	3.2%	98.4%	3.4%	1.3%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	12%	4.0%	96.8%	5%	2.1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
88	17%	4.9%	95%	8%	2.7%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
87	23%	6%	92%	12%	3.6%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	76%
86	30%	7%	87%	16%	4.7%	73%	1.0%	< 1%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	67%
85	38%	8%	82%	22%	6%	66%	1.8%	< 1%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	59%
84	46%	8%	75%	28%	6%	56%	3.0%	1.2%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	43%
83	54%	8%	67%	36%	7%	46%	4.8%	1.8%	35%	1.2%	< 1%	33%
82	62%	8%	57%	43%	8%	38%	7%	2.4%	26%	2.0%	< 1%	24%
81	70%	7%	47%	51%	8%	28%	11%	3.3%	17%	3.3%	1.3%	15%
80	76%	7%	37%	59%	8%	21%	15%	4.1%	11%	5%	1.8%	10%
79	82%	6%	28%	66%	7%	14%	20%	5%	7%	8%	2.4%	6%
78	87%	4.7%	20%	73%	7%	9%	26%	6%	3.6%	11%	3.3%	3.0%
77	90%	3.8%	13%	79%	6%	5%	32%	7%	1.9%	15%	4.1%	1.3%
76	93%	2.9%	8%	84%	5%	2.9%	40%	7%	< 1%	20%	5.0%	< 1%
75	95.4%	2.2%	4%	88%	4.2%	1.5%	48%	8%	< 1%	26%	6%	< 1%
74	96.9%	1.5%	2%	92%	3.4%	< 1%	55%	8%	< 1%	32%	7%	< 1%
73	98.0%	1.1%	< 1%	94%	2.6%	< 1%	63%	7%	< 1%	39%	7%	< 1%
72	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	96.2%	1.9%	< 1%	70%	7%	< 1%	47%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (2.2%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Aston Villa	91%	85%	81%
Newcastle	2.3%	3.7%	8%
Tottenham vs Brentford (2.2%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Tottenham	72%	62%	56%
West Ham	22%	25%	26%
Aston Villa	87%	89%	89%
Newcastle	3.3%	4.2%	5.0%

	Arsenal			Aston Villa			Tottenham			West Ham			Brighton			Newcastle			Man United			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
83	4.8%	1.8%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
82	7%	2.4%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
81	11%	3.3%	100%	3.3%	1.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
80	15%	4.1%	100%	5%	1.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	20%	5%	100%	8%	2.4%	99.99%	1.3%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	26%	6%	100%	11%	3.3%	99.99%	2.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	32%	7%	99.98%	15%	4.1%	99.9%	3.4%	1.2%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	40%	7%	99.97%	20%	5.0%	99.9%	5%	1.7%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	48%	8%	99.9%	26%	6%	99.7%	8%	2.5%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	55%	8%	99.7%	32%	7%	99.4%	11%	3.1%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	63%	7%	99.4%	39%	7%	98.8%	15%	4.1%	97.0%	1.1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	70%	7%	99.0%	47%	8%	97.9%	20%	4.9%	95.3%	1.7%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
71	76%	6%	98.1%	54%	8%	96.6%	25%	6%	93%	2.8%	1.0%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
70	82%	6%	96.8%	62%	7%	95%	32%	6%	91%	4.3%	1.5%	82%	1.00%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	85%
69	86%	4.7%	95%	69%	7%	92%	39%	7%	87%	6%	2.1%	76%	1.6%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	77%
68	90%	3.8%	92%	75%	6%	88%	46%	7%	83%	9%	2.8%	67%	2.6%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	1.4%	< 1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	66%
67	93%	3.0%	87%	81%	6%	83%	54%	8%	77%	13%	3.6%	57%	3.9%	1.4%	60%	1.5%	< 1%	60%	2.3%	< 1%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	57%
66	95.2%	2.2%	81%	86%	4.8%	76%	62%	8%	70%	17%	4.3%	47%	6%	1.8%	50%	2.5%	< 1%	48%	3.5%	1.2%	38%	1.4%	< 1%	44%
65	96.8%	1.6%	73%	90%	3.9%	67%	69%	7%	62%	22%	5%	38%	8%	2.5%	40%	3.8%	1.4%	38%	5%	1.8%	26%	2.3%	< 1%	33%
64	98.0%	1.1%	63%	93%	3.1%	56%	75%	6%	51%	28%	6%	29%	11%	3.2%	30%	6%	2.0%	26%	8%	2.4%	17%	3.5%	1.3%	23%
63	98.8%	< 1%	51%	95.0%	2.4%	44%	81%	6%	40%	35%	7%	22%	15%	4.0%	23%	8%	2.5%	17%	11%	3.1%	10%	5%	1.8%	14%
62	99.27%	< 1%	39%	96.7%	1.7%	31%	86%	4.8%	29%	42%	7%	16%	20%	4.8%	17%	12%	3.4%	10%	15%	4.0%	6%	8%	2.4%	8%
61	99.57%	< 1%	30%	97.9%	1.2%	20%	90%	3.9%	20%	50%	7%	12%	26%	6%	14%	16%	4.2%	5%	20%	4.8%	2.6%	11%	3.2%	4%
60	99.76%	< 1%	21%	98.7%	< 1%	11%	93%	3.1%	12%	57%	7%	11%	32%	6%	12%	21%	5.0%	2.6%	25%	6%	1.1%	15%	4.1%	1.7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Wolves vs Man United (2.7%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Man United	23%	28%	39%
Wolves	12%	7%	5%
West Ham vs Bournemouth (2%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
West Ham	67%	56%	50%
Bournemouth	4.0%	4.5%	6%
Newcastle	26%	28%	29%

	Aston Villa			Tottenham			West Ham			Brighton			Man United			Newcastle			Chelsea			Wolves			Bournemouth			Everton			Forest			Fulham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	39%	7%	100%	15%	4.1%	>99.99%	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	47%	8%	99.99%	20%	4.9%	99.98%	1.7%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	54%	8%	99.98%	25%	6%	99.97%	2.8%	1.0%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	62%	7%	99.98%	32%	6%	99.9%	4.3%	1.5%	99.4%	1.00%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	69%	7%	99.9%	39%	7%	99.8%	6%	2.1%	98.9%	1.6%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	75%	6%	99.8%	46%	7%	99.7%	9%	2.8%	98.3%	2.6%	< 1%	98%	1.4%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	81%	6%	99.6%	54%	8%	99.3%	13%	3.6%	97.2%	3.9%	1.4%	97%	2.3%	< 1%	96%	1.5%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	86%	4.8%	99.2%	62%	8%	98.6%	17%	4.3%	95.8%	6%	1.8%	96%	3.5%	1.2%	94%	2.5%	< 1%	96%	1.4%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	90%	3.9%	98.5%	69%	7%	97.7%	22%	5%	94%	8%	2.5%	94%	5%	1.8%	91%	3.8%	1.4%	94%	2.3%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	93%	3.1%	97.1%	75%	6%	95.9%	28%	6%	91%	11%	3.2%	90%	8%	2.4%	87%	6%	2.0%	90%	3.5%	1.3%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	90%
63	95.0%	2.4%	95%	81%	6%	93%	35%	7%	86%	15%	4.0%	86%	11%	3.1%	81%	8%	2.5%	85%	5%	1.8%	83%	1.4%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	84%
62	96.7%	1.7%	92%	86%	4.8%	89%	42%	7%	81%	20%	4.8%	80%	15%	4.0%	73%	12%	3.4%	78%	8%	2.4%	76%	2.3%	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	70%
61	97.9%	1.2%	87%	90%	3.9%	82%	50%	7%	73%	26%	6%	72%	20%	4.8%	64%	16%	4.2%	70%	11%	3.2%	66%	3.6%	1.3%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	62%
60	98.7%	< 1%	81%	93%	3.1%	73%	57%	7%	64%	32%	6%	64%	25%	6%	53%	21%	5.0%	60%	15%	4.1%	56%	5%	1.8%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	53%
59	99.23%	< 1%	72%	95.0%	2.3%	62%	65%	7%	54%	39%	7%	54%	32%	6%	42%	27%	6%	49%	20%	4.8%	44%	8%	2.5%	39%	1.2%	< 1%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	40%
58	99.56%	< 1%	64%	96.7%	1.7%	49%	71%	7%	43%	46%	7%	44%	39%	7%	32%	33%	7%	37%	26%	6%	33%	11%	3.3%	27%	2.0%	< 1%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	27%
57	99.76%	< 1%	57%	97.9%	1.2%	36%	78%	6%	32%	53%	7%	35%	46%	7%	22%	41%	7%	26%	32%	7%	23%	15%	4.2%	18%	3.0%	1.0%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	29%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	17%
56	99.87%	< 1%	49%	98.8%	< 1%	25%	83%	5%	23%	60%	7%	27%	54%	8%	15%	48%	7%	17%	39%	7%	15%	21%	5%	11%	4.4%	1.4%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	2.1%	< 1%	9%
55	99.94%	< 1%	44%	99.29%	< 1%	15%	87%	4.5%	17%	67%	7%	21%	61%	8%	10%	56%	8%	11%	47%	8%	10%	27%	6%	6%	6%	1.9%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	3.2%	1.1%	5%
54	99.97%	< 1%	49%	99.60%	< 1%	10%	91%	3.6%	12%	73%	6%	17%	68%	7%	7%	63%	7%	6%	55%	8%	7%	33%	7%	4.0%	9%	2.6%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	4.7%	1.6%	2%
53	99.99%	< 1%	39%	99.79%	< 1%	6%	94%	2.8%	10%	79%	6%	15%	75%	7%	6%	70%	7%	3.9%	62%	8%	5%	41%	7%	2.6%	12%	3.3%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	7%	2.1%	1.2%
52	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.90%	< 1%	6%	95.9%	2.1%	9%	84%	4.9%	15%	81%	6%	5%	76%	6%	2.7%	69%	7%	4.5%	48%	8%	2.1%	16%	4.0%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	10%	2.8%	< 1%
51	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.95%	< 1%	4%	97.3%	1.5%	9%	88%	4.1%	14%	86%	4.9%	5.0%	82%	6%	2.2%	76%	7%	4.1%	56%	8%	2.0%	21%	4.8%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	1.0%	< 1%	2%	13%	3.6%	< 1%
50	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.98%	< 1%	4%	98.4%	1.0%	8%	91%	3.3%	14%	90%	4.0%	5%	86%	4.7%	1.9%	81%	6%	4.0%	64%	8%	2.0%	27%	6%	3.2%	1.2%	< 1%	2%	1.6%	< 1%	2%	18%	4.4%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Man United (3.6%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Man United	33%	40%	52%
Wolves	20%	12%	9%
West Ham vs Bournemouth (2%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
West Ham	78%	68%	62%
Bournemouth	4.9%	6%	9%
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (2%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Newcastle	33%	39%	51%
Aston Villa	99.68%	99.2%	98.6%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Brighton			Chelsea			Man United			Newcastle			Wolves			Fulham			Bournemouth			Everton			Forest			Brentford			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
70	32%	6%	99.97%	4.3%	1.5%	99.8%	1.00%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	39%	7%	99.93%	6%	2.1%	99.6%	1.6%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	46%	7%	99.9%	9%	2.8%	99.4%	2.6%	< 1%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	1.4%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	54%	8%	99.7%	13%	3.6%	98.9%	3.9%	1.4%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	2.3%	< 1%	99%	1.5%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	62%	8%	99.5%	17%	4.3%	98.5%	6%	1.8%	98.4%	1.4%	< 1%	99%	3.5%	1.2%	98%	2.5%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	69%	7%	99.2%	22%	5%	97.7%	8%	2.5%	97%	2.3%	< 1%	99%	5%	1.8%	96%	3.8%	1.4%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	75%	6%	98.5%	28%	6%	96.4%	11%	3.2%	96%	3.5%	1.3%	98%	8%	2.4%	94%	6%	2.0%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	81%	6%	97.3%	35%	7%	94%	15%	4.0%	94%	5%	1.8%	96%	11%	3.1%	91%	8%	2.5%	94%	1.4%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	90%
62	86%	4.8%	95.3%	42%	7%	92%	20%	4.8%	91%	8%	2.4%	94%	15%	4.0%	87%	12%	3.4%	90%	2.3%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	87%
61	90%	3.9%	92%	50%	7%	87%	26%	6%	87%	11%	3.2%	90%	20%	4.8%	81%	16%	4.2%	85%	3.6%	1.3%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	82%
60	93%	3.1%	87%	57%	7%	82%	32%	6%	81%	15%	4.1%	85%	25%	6%	74%	21%	5.0%	79%	5%	1.8%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	73%
59	95.0%	2.3%	80%	65%	7%	74%	39%	7%	74%	20%	4.8%	79%	32%	6%	66%	27%	6%	71%	8%	2.5%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	1.2%	< 1%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	63%
58	96.7%	1.7%	71%	71%	7%	65%	46%	7%	65%	26%	6%	71%	39%	7%	55%	33%	7%	61%	11%	3.3%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	57%	2.0%	< 1%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	51%
57	97.9%	1.2%	58%	78%	6%	54%	53%	7%	55%	32%	7%	62%	46%	7%	44%	41%	7%	50%	15%	4.2%	39%	1.3%	< 1%	44%	3.0%	1.0%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	1.3%	< 1%	42%	1.2%	< 1%	38%
56	98.8%	< 1%	45%	83%	5%	43%	60%	7%	45%	39%	7%	53%	54%	8%	34%	48%	7%	39%	21%	5%	28%	2.1%	< 1%	34%	4.4%	1.4%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	< 1%	< 1%	27%	2.0%	< 1%	29%	1.9%	< 1%	26%
55	99.29%	< 1%	33%	87%	4.5%	32%	67%	7%	36%	47%	8%	45%	61%	8%	24%	56%	8%	28%	27%	6%	18%	3.2%	1.1%	24%	6%	1.9%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	3.0%	1.0%	18%	2.9%	1.0%	16%
54	99.60%	< 1%	23%	91%	3.6%	23%	73%	6%	27%	55%	8%	38%	68%	7%	16%	63%	7%	19%	33%	7%	11%	4.7%	1.6%	16%	9%	2.6%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	4.5%	1.5%	10%	4.4%	1.5%	9%
53	99.79%	< 1%	15%	94%	2.8%	16%	79%	6%	21%	62%	8%	33%	75%	7%	11%	70%	7%	12%	41%	7%	7%	7%	2.1%	13%	12%	3.3%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	6%	1.9%	5%	6%	2.0%	4%
52	99.90%	< 1%	10%	95.9%	2.1%	12%	84%	4.9%	18%	69%	7%	30%	81%	6%	8%	76%	6%	7%	48%	8%	4.1%	10%	2.8%	10%	16%	4.0%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	9%	2.6%	2.0%	9%	2.6%	1.8%
51	99.95%	< 1%	4%	97.3%	1.5%	11%	88%	4.1%	16%	76%	7%	28%	86%	4.9%	6%	82%	6%	4.1%	56%	8%	2.7%	13%	3.6%	9%	21%	4.8%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	1.0%	< 1%	2%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	12%	3.4%	< 1%
50	99.98%	< 1%	4%	98.4%	1.0%	9%	91%	3.3%	15%	81%	6%	27%	90%	4.0%	5%	86%	4.7%	2.7%	64%	8%	2.2%	18%	4.4%	9%	27%	6%	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%	3%	1.6%	< 1%	2%	16%	4.1%	< 1%	17%	4.2%	< 1%
49	>99.99%	< 1%	6%	99.04%	< 1%	9%	94%	2.6%	14%	86%	4.8%	27%	93%	3.2%	5%	90%	3.8%	2.1%	71%	7%	2.1%	23%	5%	9%	33%	6%	3.3%	2.0%	< 1%	3%	2.5%	< 1%	2%	21%	4.8%	< 1%	22%	4.9%	< 1%
48	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.46%	< 1%	9%	95.9%	1.9%	14%	90%	3.9%	27%	95.2%	2.4%	5%	93%	3.0%	1.8%	77%	6%	2.0%	29%	6%	9%	40%	7%	3.2%	3.1%	1.1%	2%	3.8%	1.3%	2%	27%	6%	< 1%	27%	6%	< 1%
47	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.71%	< 1%	9%	97.3%	1.4%	15%	93%	3.0%	27%	96.9%	1.7%	5%	95.3%	2.3%	1.9%	83%	6%	2.0%	35%	7%	9%	47%	7%	3.3%	4.7%	1.6%	3%	6%	1.8%	1.7%	33%	6%	< 1%	34%	6%	< 1%
46	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.85%	< 1%	7%	98.3%	< 1%	15%	95.5%	2.3%	27%	98.1%	1.2%	5%	97.0%	1.6%	2%	88%	4.7%	1.9%	43%	7%	9%	54%	7%	3.2%	7%	2.2%	3%	8%	2.4%	1.8%	40%	7%	< 1%	41%	7%	< 1%
45	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.93%	< 1%	7%	99.0%	< 1%	14%	97.2%	1.6%	27%	98.9%	< 1%	5%	98.1%	1.1%	2%	91%	3.7%	1.9%	50%	7%	9%	61%	7%	3.4%	10%	2.9%	2.6%	11%	3.2%	1.7%	48%	7%	< 1%	48%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Luton vs Brighton (2.8%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Luton	43%	30%	24%
Forest	78%	81%	83%
Everton	78%	82%	84%
Fulham vs Everton (2.4%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Everton	77%	82%	90%
Fulham	99.2%	97.7%	95.9%
Luton	32%	31%	28%

	Sheffield United			Burnley			Luton			Forest			Everton			Crystal Palace			Brentford			Fulham			Bournemouth
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
51	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	12%	3.4%	100%	12%	3.3%	100%	13%	3.6%	100%	21%	4.8%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	17%	4.2%	100%	16%	4.1%	100%	18%	4.4%	100%	27%	6%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	22%	4.9%	100%	21%	4.8%	100%	23%	5%	100%	33%	6%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.8%	1.3%	100%	3.1%	1.1%	100%	27%	6%	100%	27%	6%	100%	29%	6%	100%	40%	7%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.8%	100%	4.7%	1.6%	100%	34%	6%	100%	33%	6%	100%	35%	7%	100%	47%	7%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.4%	100%	7%	2.2%	100%	41%	7%	100%	40%	7%	100%	43%	7%	100%	54%	7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	11%	3.2%	100%	10%	2.9%	100%	48%	7%	100%	48%	7%	100%	50%	7%	100%	61%	7%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	99.9%	15%	4.0%	>99.99%	14%	3.8%	>99.99%	56%	7%	100%	55%	7%	100%	58%	8%	100%	68%	7%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	2.1%	< 1%	99.9%	20%	4.9%	>99.99%	18%	4.7%	>99.99%	63%	7%	>99.99%	62%	7%	>99.99%	65%	7%	>99.99%	75%	6%	>99.99%
42	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	3.2%	1.2%	99.6%	26%	6%	99.96%	24%	6%	99.98%	70%	7%	99.99%	69%	7%	>99.99%	72%	7%	99.99%	80%	6%	99.97%
41	< 1%	< 1%	99%	1.2%	< 1%	99%	4.8%	1.6%	98.8%	32%	6%	99.8%	30%	6%	99.9%	76%	6%	99.9%	75%	6%	99.95%	78%	6%	99.9%	85%	4.8%	99.9%
40	< 1%	< 1%	95%	1.9%	< 1%	97%	7%	2.2%	97%	39%	7%	99.4%	37%	7%	99.6%	82%	6%	99.6%	81%	6%	99.7%	83%	5%	99.6%	89%	4.0%	99.5%
39	< 1%	< 1%	94%	3.0%	1.1%	92%	10%	3.0%	92%	47%	8%	98.2%	45%	8%	98.9%	86%	4.7%	98.9%	86%	4.8%	99.2%	88%	4.5%	98.9%	92%	3.2%	98.4%
38	< 1%	< 1%	84%	4.5%	1.6%	84%	14%	3.8%	86%	55%	8%	96.1%	53%	8%	97.2%	90%	3.8%	97.2%	90%	3.9%	97.8%	91%	3.6%	97.0%	95%	2.4%	96%
37	< 1%	< 1%	72%	7%	2.1%	73%	19%	4.8%	76%	62%	8%	92%	60%	8%	94%	93%	3.0%	93%	93%	3.1%	95%	94%	2.8%	93%	96.6%	1.8%	90%
36	1.2%	< 1%	58%	9%	2.8%	59%	24%	6%	63%	70%	7%	85%	68%	7%	88%	95.5%	2.2%	88%	95.3%	2.4%	89%	96.3%	2.1%	87%	97.8%	1.3%	83%
35	2.0%	< 1%	42%	13%	3.7%	44%	31%	7%	49%	76%	7%	75%	75%	7%	80%	97.1%	1.6%	77%	97.0%	1.7%	81%	97.7%	1.4%	78%	98.7%	< 1%	70%
34	3.0%	1.1%	27%	18%	4.6%	30%	38%	7%	36%	82%	6%	63%	81%	6%	68%	98.2%	1.1%	65%	98.2%	1.2%	69%	98.7%	< 1%	64%	99.25%	< 1%	56%
33	4.6%	1.6%	16%	23%	5%	19%	46%	8%	24%	87%	4.9%	50%	86%	5%	55%	99.0%	< 1%	51%	98.9%	< 1%	55%	99.27%	< 1%	51%	99.59%	< 1%	41%
32	7%	2.2%	8%	30%	6%	11%	55%	8%	15%	91%	3.9%	37%	90%	4.2%	42%	99.44%	< 1%	37%	99.41%	< 1%	40%	99.62%	< 1%	35%	99.79%	< 1%	26%
31	10%	2.9%	4%	37%	7%	6%	63%	8%	8%	94%	3.0%	26%	93%	3.2%	30%	99.71%	< 1%	24%	99.70%	< 1%	27%	99.81%	< 1%	23%	99.90%	< 1%	16%
30	14%	3.8%	1.5%	44%	8%	2.6%	70%	8%	4.1%	96.3%	2.2%	16%	95.5%	2.4%	19%	99.85%	< 1%	14%	99.86%	< 1%	16%	99.92%	< 1%	15%	99.96%	< 1%	9%
29	18%	4.7%	< 1%	53%	8%	1.0%	77%	7%	1.9%	97.8%	1.5%	9%	97.2%	1.7%	11%	99.93%	< 1%	8%	99.93%	< 1%	9%	99.97%	< 1%	10%	99.98%	< 1%	4%
28	24%	6%	< 1%	61%	8%	< 1%	83%	6%	< 1%	98.8%	< 1%	5%	98.4%	1.1%	6%	99.97%	< 1%	4%	99.98%	< 1%	4%	99.99%	< 1%	3%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	83%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	66%
League cup winners	100%	68%	63%
Sixth team	98.4%	95%	4.2%
Seventh team	86%	63%	3.7%
Eighth team	52%	11%	2.9%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 87
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	58%	21%	21%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	50%	23%	27%	Bournemouth
Forest	23%	22%	55%	Arsenal
Luton	26%	23%	51%	Brighton
Fulham	47%	24%	29%	Everton
Crystal Palace	65%	19%	16%	Sheffield United
Aston Villa	55%	22%	23%	Newcastle
Tottenham	59%	21%	20%	Brentford
Man City	85%	10%	5%	Burnley
Liverpool	67%	19%	15%	Chelsea
West Ham	59%	21%	20%	Bournemouth
Wolves	44%	24%	32%	Man United

Most likely combo of teams in CL

41%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
4.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.0%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
1.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
1.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

57%	Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
12%	Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
11%	Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
4.6%	Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
4.5%	Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
1.6%	Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
1.5%	Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
1.3%	Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United
1.1%	Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United