Thursday, February 1, 2024

PL: A must-win match on Sunday for Arsenal when Liverpool are visiting.

A must-win match on Sunday for Arsenal when Liverpool are visiting. Man United are hosting West Ham in a match important for the EL/ECL race  (details below).

Hot Teams
Luton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Chelsea: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Brentford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Everton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Fulham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
46Man City83.2+51< 1%>99.99%>99.99%99.98%99.74%58%< 1%< 1%99.95%
51Liverpool81.4+46< 1%>99.99%>99.99%99.95%99.39%36%< 1%< 1%99.88%
46Arsenal75.2+35< 1%99.93%99.70%98.6%92%5%< 1%2.2%97.7%
43Aston Villa69.2+20< 1%98.2%95.0%86%56%< 1%1.0%17%81%
43Tottenham68.0+19< 1%97.3%93%81%44%< 1%2.2%21%74%
36West Ham59.5+5< 1%60%38%14%3.6%< 1%13%37%19%
35Man United57.8-3< 1%44%24%7%1.6%< 1%14%35%6%
32Newcastle57.3+16< 1%46%26%8%1.8%< 1%14%38%7%
29Brighton55.2+4< 1%28%14%3.8%< 1%< 1%11%21%13%
31Chelsea53.5+1< 1%18%8%1.7%< 1%< 1%36%15%1.5%
29Wolves49.8-5< 1%4.7%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.2%6%< 1%
23Bournemouth46.3-161.6%1.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.6%3.0%< 1%
24Crystal Palace45.2-132.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%
25Fulham44.0-132.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
22Brentford43.5-103.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
18Everton37.8-820%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
20Forest37.3-2127%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
19Luton34.2-2655%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
12Burnley28.7-3289%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
10Sheffield United23.6-5098.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTrebleQuadruple
Man City87%49%11%
31%11%
Liverpool89%51%15%1.6%7%

Arsenal14%< 1%




Aston Villa38%1.5%< 1%
< 1%

Tottenham< 1%





West Ham9%< 1%




Man United4.6%< 1%

< 1%

Newcastle6%< 1%

< 1%

Brighton13%< 1%




Chelsea32%< 1%




Wolves1.8%





Bournemouth1.9%





Forest< 1%





Luton< 1%





Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Liverpool (4.2%)Home Win (47%)Draw (24%)Away Win (29%)
Liverpool29%36%48%
Arsenal9%3.9%1.8%
Man City62%59%50%
Brentford vs Man City (3.1%)Home Win (19%)Draw (21%)Away Win (61%)
Man City46%52%64%
Liverpool46%41%31%
Arsenal8%7%4.4%



Man CityLiverpoolArsenal
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
931.8%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
923.4%1.7%99.3%1.6%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%99%
915%2.0%98.7%2.8%1.2%97%< 1%< 1%95%
909%3.5%97.6%4.4%1.7%94%< 1%< 1%95%
8913%4.3%95.6%7%2.6%91%< 1%< 1%89%
8819%5%93%10%3.4%86%< 1%< 1%82%
8725%7%89%15%4.3%80%< 1%< 1%73%
8633%7%83%20%6%72%1.6%< 1%62%
8541%8%77%27%6%63%2.7%1.1%52%
8449%8%69%34%7%54%4.5%1.8%40%
8357%8%60%41%8%44%7%2.4%29%
8265%8%50%49%8%34%10%3.2%21%
8172%7%40%57%8%26%14%4.3%13%
8079%6%30%65%8%18%20%5%8%
7984%5%22%72%7%12%26%6%4.7%
7888%4.4%14%79%6%7%33%7%2.5%
7792%3.4%9%84%5%4.3%41%8%1.3%
7694%2.6%5%88%4.4%2.2%48%8%< 1%
7596.2%1.9%3%92%3.5%1.2%56%8%< 1%
7497.6%1.3%1.2%94%2.6%< 1%64%8%< 1%
7398.5%< 1%< 1%96.3%1.9%< 1%71%7%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Tottenham (2.1%)Home Win (37%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Tottenham67%73%82%
Newcastle8%7%6%
Aston Villa82%81%79%
Man United7%6%5%
West Ham21%20%18%



ArsenalAston VillaTottenhamWest HamBrightonNewcastleMan UnitedChelsea
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
8114%4.3%100%1.1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
8020%5%100%1.9%< 1%100%1.1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7926%6%>99.99%3.0%1.2%>99.99%1.8%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7833%7%>99.99%4.8%1.8%99.9%2.9%1.2%99.9%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7741%8%99.99%7%2.4%99.9%4.6%1.7%99.8%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7648%8%99.97%10%3.2%99.8%7%2.3%99.7%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7556%8%99.9%15%4.2%99.5%10%3.1%99.3%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-
7464%8%99.8%20%5%99.1%14%3.9%98.7%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-
7371%7%99.5%26%6%98.3%19%4.8%97.9%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%-
7278%6%99.0%33%7%97.4%25%6%96.4%< 1%< 1%93%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%-
7183%5%98.4%40%7%96.0%31%7%95%1.5%< 1%89%< 1%< 1%90%< 1%< 1%90%< 1%< 1%87%< 1%< 1%95%
7088%4.5%96.9%48%8%94%39%7%92%2.5%< 1%83%< 1%< 1%85%< 1%< 1%86%1.0%< 1%80%< 1%< 1%85%
6991%3.6%95%56%8%91%46%8%90%3.8%1.4%76%< 1%< 1%79%1.4%< 1%79%1.7%< 1%72%< 1%< 1%79%
6894%2.7%92%63%8%88%54%8%86%6%2.0%67%< 1%< 1%71%2.2%< 1%69%2.7%1.0%61%< 1%< 1%70%
6796.0%2.1%88%70%7%83%62%8%81%8%2.6%58%1.6%< 1%60%3.6%1.4%59%4.3%1.6%49%< 1%< 1%58%
6697.4%1.4%82%77%6%76%69%7%74%12%3.5%47%2.5%< 1%50%5%1.9%48%6%2.1%38%< 1%< 1%45%
6598.4%< 1%73%82%6%67%76%7%65%16%4.4%38%3.9%1.4%39%8%2.6%37%9%2.9%27%1.4%< 1%33%
6499.06%< 1%62%87%4.7%56%82%6%54%22%5%28%6%1.9%29%11%3.4%26%13%3.8%18%2.4%< 1%23%
6399.45%< 1%51%91%3.8%44%86%4.8%43%28%6%21%8%2.6%22%16%4.2%17%18%4.6%11%3.8%1.4%14%
6299.70%< 1%38%94%2.9%32%90%3.9%31%35%7%16%12%3.3%17%21%5%10%23%6%6%6%1.9%8%
6199.84%< 1%27%95.7%2.2%20%93%3.0%20%42%7%12%16%4.2%13%27%6%5%30%6%2.7%8%2.6%4%
6099.92%< 1%16%97.3%1.5%13%95.6%2.3%12%50%8%10%21%4.9%11%34%7%2.4%37%7%1.1%12%3.5%1.6%
5999.96%< 1%13%98.3%1.0%6%97.2%1.6%6%58%8%9%27%6%10%41%7%1.0%44%8%< 1%16%4.4%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs West Ham (5.4%)Home Win (47%)Draw (24%)Away Win (30%)
Man United51%37%30%
West Ham48%57%69%
Chelsea vs Wolves (2%)Home Win (54%)Draw (22%)Away Win (24%)
Chelsea21%13%10%
Wolves4.0%6%10%



Aston VillaTottenhamWest HamNewcastleMan UnitedBrightonChelseaWolvesBournemouth
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
7140%7%>99.99%31%7%99.97%1.5%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7048%8%99.98%39%7%99.96%2.5%< 1%99.6%< 1%< 1%99.7%1.0%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6956%8%99.94%46%8%99.9%3.8%1.4%99.2%1.4%< 1%99.7%1.7%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6863%8%99.8%54%8%99.8%6%2.0%98.8%2.2%< 1%99.2%2.7%1.0%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6770%7%99.7%62%8%99.6%8%2.6%98.1%3.6%1.4%98%4.3%1.6%98%1.6%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%94%< 1%< 1%-
6677%6%99.4%69%7%99.2%12%3.5%96.9%5%1.9%98%6%2.1%96%2.5%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%-
6582%6%98.9%76%7%98.6%16%4.4%95%8%2.6%96%9%2.9%94%3.9%1.4%94%1.4%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%92%
6487%4.7%97.9%82%6%97.2%22%5%92%11%3.4%94%13%3.8%90%6%1.9%92%2.4%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%90%< 1%< 1%90%
6391%3.8%96.2%86%4.8%95%28%6%88%16%4.2%90%18%4.6%86%8%2.6%87%3.8%1.4%86%< 1%< 1%85%< 1%< 1%82%
6294%2.9%94%90%3.9%91%35%7%83%21%5%85%23%6%79%12%3.3%81%6%1.9%78%< 1%< 1%77%< 1%< 1%75%
6195.7%2.2%89%93%3.0%85%42%7%75%27%6%78%30%6%70%16%4.2%73%8%2.6%69%1.5%< 1%67%< 1%< 1%63%
6097.3%1.5%83%95.6%2.3%76%50%8%66%34%7%69%37%7%60%21%4.9%63%12%3.5%58%2.5%< 1%54%< 1%< 1%51%
5998.3%1.0%76%97.2%1.6%64%58%8%55%41%7%59%44%8%48%27%6%52%16%4.4%45%3.9%1.4%42%1.2%< 1%38%
5899.00%< 1%67%98.3%1.1%49%65%7%44%49%8%47%52%8%36%33%6%41%22%5%32%6%2.0%29%1.9%< 1%27%
5799.45%< 1%58%99.01%< 1%35%72%7%32%57%8%35%60%8%26%40%7%32%28%6%21%9%2.8%18%2.9%1.0%17%
5699.70%< 1%50%99.45%< 1%22%78%6%23%64%7%25%68%7%17%48%7%24%35%7%13%12%3.6%11%4.3%1.4%10%
5599.85%< 1%44%99.71%< 1%12%84%5%16%71%7%17%74%7%12%55%7%19%42%7%8%17%4.6%6%6%2.0%6%
5499.93%< 1%39%99.86%< 1%5%88%4.4%12%77%6%12%80%6%8%62%7%16%50%8%4.6%22%5%3.7%9%2.6%3%
5399.97%< 1%35%99.93%< 1%2%92%3.6%10%83%5%9%85%5%6%69%7%14%58%8%2.9%29%6%2.5%12%3.4%2.4%
5299.99%< 1%46%99.97%< 1%< 1%94%2.7%9%87%4.6%7%90%4.2%5%76%6%13%65%8%2.3%36%7%2.0%17%4.2%2.1%
51>99.99%< 1%-99.99%< 1%< 1%96.4%2.0%9%91%3.6%7%93%3.2%5%81%6%13%72%7%2.0%44%8%1.9%22%5.0%2.0%
50>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-97.8%1.4%9%94%2.9%6%95.3%2.4%5%86%4.7%13%78%6%2.0%52%8%1.8%27%6%2.0%
49>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-98.7%< 1%9%95.9%2.1%6%97.0%1.7%5%90%3.9%13%84%5%1.8%60%8%1.8%34%7%2.0%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Man United vs West Ham (5.2%)Home Win (47%)Draw (24%)Away Win (30%)
Man United66%52%44%
West Ham62%71%81%
Chelsea vs Wolves (2.1%)Home Win (54%)Draw (22%)Away Win (24%)
Wolves7%10%17%
Chelsea57%49%45%



TottenhamWest HamNewcastleMan UnitedChelseaBrightonWolvesBournemouthCrystal PalaceBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6946%8%99.98%3.8%1.4%99.8%1.4%< 1%99.9%1.7%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6854%8%99.94%6%2.0%99.7%2.2%< 1%99.8%2.7%1.0%99.6%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6762%8%99.9%8%2.6%99.4%3.6%1.4%99.5%4.3%1.6%99.2%< 1%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6669%7%99.8%12%3.5%99.0%5%1.9%99.3%6%2.1%98.8%< 1%< 1%99.9%2.5%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6576%7%99.5%16%4.4%98.4%8%2.6%98.7%9%2.9%98.0%1.4%< 1%99.7%3.9%1.4%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6482%6%99.2%22%5%97.4%11%3.4%97.7%13%3.8%96.6%2.4%< 1%99.4%6%1.9%97%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%97%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
6386%4.8%98.3%28%6%95.7%16%4.2%96.6%18%4.6%95%3.8%1.4%98%8%2.6%95%< 1%< 1%94%< 1%< 1%94%< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%-
6290%3.9%96.9%35%7%94%21%5%94%23%6%91%6%1.9%97%12%3.3%92%< 1%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%89%< 1%< 1%90%< 1%< 1%93%
6193%3.0%94%42%7%90%27%6%91%30%6%87%8%2.6%95%16%4.2%88%1.5%< 1%84%< 1%< 1%83%< 1%< 1%86%< 1%< 1%88%
6095.6%2.3%90%50%8%85%34%7%87%37%7%81%12%3.5%91%21%4.9%82%2.5%< 1%76%< 1%< 1%74%< 1%< 1%78%< 1%< 1%82%
5997.2%1.6%83%58%8%78%41%7%80%44%8%73%16%4.4%85%27%6%74%3.9%1.4%67%1.2%< 1%64%< 1%< 1%67%< 1%< 1%71%
5898.3%1.1%74%65%7%69%49%8%72%52%8%63%22%5%78%33%6%66%6%2.0%55%1.9%< 1%52%< 1%< 1%56%< 1%< 1%60%
5799.01%< 1%62%72%7%58%57%8%62%60%8%52%28%6%70%40%7%55%9%2.8%42%2.9%1.0%39%1.6%< 1%42%< 1%< 1%46%
5699.45%< 1%49%78%6%47%64%7%51%68%7%40%35%7%61%48%7%45%12%3.6%30%4.3%1.4%28%2.5%< 1%29%1.2%< 1%33%
5599.71%< 1%33%84%5%35%71%7%39%74%7%29%42%7%52%55%7%35%17%4.6%20%6%2.0%17%3.8%1.3%18%1.9%< 1%22%
5499.86%< 1%20%88%4.4%25%77%6%29%80%6%20%50%8%45%62%7%26%22%5%12%9%2.6%10%6%1.8%10%3.0%1.1%12%
5399.93%< 1%11%92%3.6%17%83%5%20%85%5%13%58%8%39%69%7%21%29%6%7%12%3.4%6%8%2.5%5%4.4%1.5%6%
5299.97%< 1%6%94%2.7%13%87%4.6%13%90%4.2%9%65%8%36%76%6%17%36%7%4.0%17%4.2%3.6%11%3.2%1.8%6%2.0%3%
5199.99%< 1%2%96.4%2.0%10%91%3.6%10%93%3.2%6%72%7%34%81%6%15%44%8%2.7%22%5.0%2.5%15%4.0%< 1%9%2.7%< 1%
50>99.99%< 1%-97.8%1.4%9%94%2.9%7%95.3%2.4%5%78%6%33%86%4.7%13%52%8%2.1%27%6%2.1%20%4.9%< 1%13%3.4%< 1%
49>99.99%< 1%-98.7%< 1%9%95.9%2.1%7%97.0%1.7%5%84%5%33%90%3.9%13%60%8%1.9%34%7%2.0%26%6%< 1%17%4.3%< 1%
48>99.99%< 1%-99.25%< 1%9%97.4%1.5%6%98.2%1.2%5%88%4.5%33%93%3.0%13%68%8%1.9%41%7%1.9%32%7%< 1%22%5%< 1%
47100%< 1%-99.60%< 1%8%98.4%1.0%6%99.0%< 1%5%92%3.5%32%95.0%2.3%13%75%7%1.7%48%7%1.9%40%7%< 1%28%6%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Bournemouth vs Forest (2.6%)Home Win (55%)Draw (22%)Away Win (23%)
Forest68%75%84%
Bournemouth99.3%98.1%96.6%
Luton47%45%41%
Everton vs Tottenham (2.3%)Home Win (37%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Everton87%78%73%
Luton42%45%48%
Burnley vs Fulham (2.1%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
Burnley16%9%6%
Fulham95.6%97.4%99.0%
Newcastle vs Luton (2%)Home Win (70%)Draw (17%)Away Win (13%)
Luton41%48%62%
Forest75%72%68%
Everton81%79%75%



Sheffield UnitedBurnleyLutonForestEvertonBrentfordFulhamCrystal PalaceBournemouth
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
49< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%100%17%4.3%100%19%4.6%100%26%6%100%34%7%100%
48< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%2.3%< 1%100%2.6%< 1%100%22%5%100%24%6%100%32%7%100%41%7%100%
47< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%3.5%1.2%100%4.1%1.5%100%28%6%100%30%6%100%40%7%100%48%7%100%
46< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%1.0%< 1%100%5%1.8%100%6%2.0%100%34%7%100%37%7%100%47%7%100%56%8%100%
45< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%1.7%< 1%100%8%2.4%100%9%2.7%100%42%7%100%45%8%100%55%8%100%63%7%100%
44< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%2.8%1.0%100%11%3.2%>99.99%12%3.6%100%49%7%>99.99%53%8%>99.99%62%8%100%70%7%100%
43< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%4.3%1.5%>99.99%15%4.1%99.99%17%4.6%>99.99%57%8%>99.99%60%8%>99.99%69%7%>99.99%76%6%>99.99%
42< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%99.8%6%2.2%99.8%20%5.0%99.9%22%6%99.97%64%7%99.98%68%7%99.97%76%7%99.98%82%6%99.96%
41< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%9%2.9%99.1%26%6%99.7%29%6%99.9%71%7%99.9%75%7%99.9%82%6%99.9%87%4.7%99.8%
40< 1%< 1%95%1.6%< 1%97%13%3.7%97.8%33%7%99.0%36%7%99.6%77%6%99.7%81%6%99.6%87%4.8%99.5%90%3.8%99.2%
39< 1%< 1%92%2.5%< 1%92%18%4.8%94%40%7%97.3%44%8%98.6%83%6%98.8%86%5%98.7%90%3.9%98.5%93%3.0%97.8%
38< 1%< 1%82%3.9%1.4%84%24%6%88%48%8%94%52%8%96.4%87%4.6%97.1%90%4.2%96.4%94%3.0%96%95.6%2.3%94%
37< 1%< 1%72%6%1.9%71%30%7%79%56%8%88%60%8%92%91%3.7%93%93%3.2%92%95.8%2.3%90%97.2%1.6%88%
36< 1%< 1%54%8%2.6%57%38%8%66%64%8%79%68%8%85%94%2.9%86%95.7%2.4%84%97.4%1.6%82%98.3%1.1%78%
351.2%< 1%39%12%3.5%40%46%8%52%71%7%67%75%7%75%96.1%2.1%76%97.4%1.7%73%98.5%1.1%69%99.0%< 1%63%
342.0%< 1%25%16%4.3%27%55%8%39%78%7%53%81%6%62%97.6%1.5%62%98.5%1.1%59%99.14%< 1%56%99.44%< 1%49%
333.2%1.2%14%21%5%16%63%8%26%83%6%40%86%5%48%98.6%1.0%47%99.19%< 1%44%99.54%< 1%40%99.71%< 1%34%
324.8%1.7%6%28%6%8%71%8%16%88%4.8%27%90%4.2%34%99.19%< 1%33%99.59%< 1%30%99.78%< 1%27%99.86%< 1%20%
317%2.3%3%35%7%4.0%78%7%9%92%3.8%17%94%3.2%22%99.58%< 1%21%99.82%< 1%19%99.89%< 1%15%99.94%< 1%12%
3010%3.2%< 1%42%8%1.7%84%6%4.7%95%2.8%10%95.9%2.4%13%99.79%< 1%11%99.92%< 1%9%99.96%< 1%9%99.97%< 1%6%
2914%4.1%< 1%50%8%< 1%89%5%2.1%96.9%2.0%5%97.5%1.6%7%99.91%< 1%6%99.97%< 1%2%99.98%< 1%4%>99.99%< 1%2%
2819%5%< 1%59%8%< 1%93%3.8%< 1%98.2%1.4%2%98.6%1.1%3%99.96%< 1%2%>99.99%< 1%2%>99.99%< 1%2%>99.99%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%>99.99%
Fifth team100%100%83%
FA cup winners100%100%77%
League cup winners100%74%69%
Sixth team99.12%96.6%3.2%
Seventh team91%71%3.3%
Eighth team62%12%3.1%


Simulated points for winner: 83 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Brighton58%21%21%Brentford
Crystal Palace50%23%27%Bournemouth
Everton37%24%39%Tottenham
Newcastle70%17%13%Luton
Burnley43%24%33%Fulham
Brighton60%21%19%Crystal Palace
Sheffield United21%21%57%Aston Villa
Chelsea54%22%24%Wolves
Man United47%24%30%West Ham
Bournemouth55%22%23%Forest
Arsenal47%24%29%Liverpool
Brentford19%21%61%Man City


Most likely combo of teams in CL
43%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
8%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City
6%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
6%Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
6%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, West Ham
5%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
4.0%Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham
3.0%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.3%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.9%Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated
46%Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United
20%Burnley, Forest, Sheffield United
15%Burnley, Everton, Sheffield United
4.0%Forest, Luton, Sheffield United
3.0%Everton, Luton, Sheffield United
2.6%Brentford, Burnley, Sheffield United
2.1%Burnley, Fulham, Sheffield United
1.4%Burnley, Crystal Palace, Sheffield United
1.3%Everton, Forest, Sheffield United
1.2%Bournemouth, Burnley, Sheffield United

 

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