Copa: Argentina take the lead in Group A

Argentina beat Canada in the premiere while Peru and Chile drew.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Argentina	1	+2	3	< 1%	1.4%	6%	92%	98.4%
Peru	1	0	1	30%	34%	32%	3.7%	36%
Chile	1	0	1	32%	35%	30%	3.3%	33%
Canada	1	-2	0	37%	30%	32%	< 1%	33%

Argentina

Argentina - Chile
Home	Draw	Away
100%	96.0%	85%	Per - Can
100%	97.0%	80%	98.1%	Home
100%	97.1%	92%	99.0%	Draw
100%	94%	87%	98.3%	Away

Peru

Peru - Canada
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
89%	86%	81%	75%	12%	2.7%	Arg - Chi
99%	98%	94%	89%	13%	2.6%	41%	+4
98%	95%	90%	83%	13%	2.2%	39%	+3
95%	90%	84%	77%	13%	1.5%	36%	+2
92%	85%	78%	72%	13%	< 1%	34%	+1
69%	68%	68%	67%	10%	7%	32%	Draw
47%	42%	37%	29%	8%	5%	18%	-1
44%	36%	30%	24%	8%	4%	15%	-2
-	29%	25%	22%	8%	3%	13%	-3
-	-	-	30%	6%	5%	14%	-4

Chile

Argentina - Chile
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
24%	26%	30%	32%	42%	76%	Per - Can
1%	2%	5%	8%	34%	74%	13%	+4
2%	5%	10%	15%	35%	80%	16%	+3
6%	10%	16%	22%	35%	85%	21%	+2
11%	17%	23%	28%	36%	93%	27%	+1
35%	35%	48%	54%	60%	65%	47%	0-0
35%	36%	35%	35%	59%	66%	41%	1-1
35%	36%	37%	35%	58%	67%	41%	2-2
35%	35%	34%	33%	58%	63%	39%	3-3
36%	36%	37%	38%	38%	69%	39%	Away

Canada

Peru - Canada
Home	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	Away
< 1%	42%	49%	48%	49%	60%	Arg - Chi
< 1%	44%	52%	52%	53%	62%	34%	Home
< 1%	34%	35%	34%	34%	61%	30%	Draw
< 1%	35%	35%	34%	37%	39%	22%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
5.04; Peru have 1.6% if they win against Canada; otherwise 0.16%
3.95; Canada have 0.89% if they draw (or win) against Peru; otherwise 0%
3.17; Peru have 1.1% if they draw (or win) against Canada; otherwise 0.081%
1.34; Canada have 0.97% if they win against Peru; otherwise 0.29%