Euro 24 - Probabilities

We have simulated the tournament a million times and below are how often the countries reach the various stages. Comments about each group below.

 

Team	Round of 16	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Final	Champion
France	93%	71%	48%	31%	20%
Spain	91%	63%	39%	22%	12%
Germany	92%	60%	36%	21%	12%
Portugal	94%	57%	33%	19%	10%
Belgium	95.1%	57%	30%	17%	9%
England	91%	58%	31%	16%	8%
Netherlands	82%	53%	29%	15%	7%
Croatia	85%	54%	30%	15%	7%
Italy	83%	50%	27%	13%	6%
Ukraine	83%	35%	14%	5%	1.8%
Austria	60%	30%	13%	4.9%	1.7%
Denmark	69%	30%	11%	3.9%	1.3%
Hungary	65%	26%	10%	3.5%	1.1%
Serbia	62%	24%	8%	2.6%	< 1%
Switzerland	59%	21%	8%	2.5%	< 1%
Czechia	62%	19%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
Scotland	50%	16%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
Turkey	56%	15%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%
Greece	53%	14%	4.1%	1.1%	< 1%
Slovenia	46%	14%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Poland	32%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovakia	45%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Romania	39%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	15%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Germany	0	0	0	6%	12%	24%	58%	92%
Hungary	0	0	0	25%	29%	29%	17%	65%
Switzerland	0	0	0	31%	30%	25%	14%	59%
Scotland	0	0	0	38%	30%	21%	10%	50%

Germany clear favorites and then a tight race between the other three countries.

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Spain	0	0	0	5%	22%	31%	42%	91%
Croatia	0	0	0	8%	29%	32%	30%	85%
Italy	0	0	0	10%	32%	31%	27%	83%
Albania	0	0	0	77%	17%	4.9%	1.6%	15%

Abania has clearly the toughest draw, ending up with three countries that all have a realistic chance to win the tournament.

Group C				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Serbia	0	0	0	28%	30%	26%	16%	62%
Denmark	0	0	0	22%	28%	30%	21%	69%
England	0	0	0	7%	13%	26%	54%	91%
Slovenia	0	0	0	43%	29%	19%	9%	46%

England favorites, tight race between Serbia and Demark, while Slovenia is considered a dark horse. Yet they advance to the knock-out stage in 46% of the simulations.

Group D				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
France	0	0	0	5.0%	13%	28%	54%	93%
Austria	0	0	0	27%	36%	24%	13%	60%
Netherlands	0	0	0	12%	24%	36%	29%	82%
Poland	0	0	0	56%	27%	12%	4.6%	32%

France favorites to win the whole tournament and in this group primarily challenged by Netherlands. Austria and Poland need a good start.

Group E				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Ukraine	0	0	0	11%	22%	40%	27%	83%
Romania	0	0	0	46%	33%	15%	5%	39%
Belgium	0	0	0	3.2%	9%	26%	61%	95.1%
Slovakia	0	0	0	40%	36%	18%	7%	45%

Belgium favorites in the group followed by Ukraine. Romania and Slovakia considered weaker.

Group F				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Portugal	0	0	0	4.3%	10%	23%	63%	94%
Greece	0	0	0	35%	30%	24%	11%	53%
Czechia	0	0	0	27%	30%	29%	15%	62%
Turkey	0	0	0	33%	30%	25%	12%	56%

Portugal is one the favorites in the tournament and won the group in 63% of the simulations. A tight race between the other three teams.

Below are the likely bracket for the knockout stage.

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Spain (42%) Croatia (30%) Italy (27%)
		Spain (31%) Croatia (21%) Italy (18%) Czechia (3%)
Turkey (10%) Czechia (10%) Slovakia (9%) Greece (9%) Romania (9%)
				Germany (25%) Spain (19%) Croatia (11%) Italy (9%)
Germany (58%) Hungary (17%) Switzerland (14%)
		Germany (41%) England (14%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (9%)
Denmark (30%) England (26%) Serbia (26%) Slovenia (19%)
						Germany (16%) Portugal (14%) Spain (13%) France (10%) Croatia (8%)
Portugal (63%) Czechia (15%) Turkey (12%)
		Portugal (42%) Italy (7%) Croatia (6%) Czechia (6%)
Italy (12%) Croatia (11%) Serbia (11%) Denmark (10%) Slovenia (10%)
				Portugal (24%) France (14%) Netherlands (13%) Belgium (8%)
Netherlands (36%) France (28%) Austria (24%)
		Netherlands (24%) France (21%) Ukraine (16%) Belgium (14%)
Ukraine (40%) Belgium (26%) Slovakia (18%)
								France (20%) Spain (12%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) Belgium (9%)
Belgium (61%) Ukraine (27%)
		Belgium (38%) Ukraine (13%) Italy (7%) Croatia (7%)
Italy (13%) Croatia (12%) Serbia (9%) Spain (9%) Denmark (9%)
				France (30%) Belgium (20%) Netherlands (12%) Portugal (7%)
France (54%) Netherlands (29%) Austria (13%)
		France (42%) Netherlands (20%) Portugal (11%) Czechia (7%)
Czechia (29%) Turkey (25%) Greece (24%) Portugal (23%)
						France (21%) Belgium (12%) England (11%) Spain (9%) Netherlands (8%)
England (54%) Denmark (21%) Serbia (16%)
		England (37%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (8%) Austria (6%)
Austria (12%) Slovakia (11%) Romania (10%) Czechia (9%) Turkey (9%)
				England (20%) Spain (14%) Croatia (12%) Italy (11%) Germany (9%)
Hungary (29%) Switzerland (25%) Germany (24%) Scotland (21%)
		Spain (21%) Croatia (20%) Italy (19%) Germany (14%) Hungary (10%)
Croatia (32%) Italy (31%) Spain (31%)