Euro: Spain and Italy take command in Group B

Croatia lost against Spain and need to win against Albania next or they are in trouble.

Group A				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Germany	1	+4	3	< 1%	5.0%	22%	73%	98.9%
Switzerland	1	+2	3	6%	19%	54%	21%	90%
Hungary	1	-2	0	44%	43%	9%	4.5%	39%
Scotland	1	-4	0	50%	33%	16%	1.7%	34%

 

Group B				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Spain	1	+3	3	1.3%	2.3%	26%	71%	98.6%
Italy	1	+1	3	1.5%	32%	41%	25%	91%
Albania	1	-1	0	83%	15%	2.2%	< 1%	10%
Croatia	1	-3	0	15%	51%	31%	3.7%	71%

Group C				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
England	0	0	0	7%	13%	26%	54%	91%
Slovenia	0	0	0	43%	29%	19%	9%	46%
Denmark	0	0	0	22%	28%	30%	21%	70%
Serbia	0	0	0	28%	30%	26%	16%	63%

England

Serbia - England
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
69%	70%	72%	75%	88%	98.1%	Slo - Den
68%	69%	71%	73%	88%	98.1%	91%	Home
68%	71%	72%	74%	88%	98.2%	91%	Draw
69%	70%	73%	76%	88%	98.1%	91%	Away

Slovenia

Slovenia - Denmark
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
90%	88%	85%	80%	46%	28%	25%	22%	20%	Ser - Eng
90%	88%	84%	80%	45%	25%	23%	20%	18%	45%	Home
90%	88%	85%	81%	45%	27%	24%	22%	20%	46%	Draw
91%	88%	85%	80%	47%	30%	26%	23%	20%	47%	Away

Denmark

Slovenia - Denmark
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
30%	32%	36%	40%	61%	90%	93%	95%	96%	Ser - Eng
28%	29%	33%	36%	60%	89%	92%	95%	96%	68%	Home
29%	31%	34%	36%	60%	90%	93%	95%	96%	69%	Draw
30%	34%	38%	43%	62%	89%	93%	95%	96%	71%	Away

Serbia

Serbia - England
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
90%	70%	54%	51%	47%	44%	Slo - Den
90%	69%	52%	49%	46%	44%	62%	Home
91%	70%	55%	51%	48%	44%	63%	Draw
90%	70%	54%	51%	47%	44%	63%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.09; England have 8.5% if they draw (or win) against Serbia; otherwise 5.9%
1.06; Denmark have 1.7% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 0.82%

Group D				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GF	Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16
Netherlands	0	0	0	12%	24%	36%	29%	82%
France	0	0	0	4.9%	13%	28%	54%	93%
Poland	0	0	0	56%	27%	12%	4.6%	32%
Austria	0	0	0	27%	36%	24%	13%	61%

Netherlands

Poland - Netherlands
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
37%	40%	45%	49%	70%	93%	95.6%	97.0%	97.7%	Aus - Fra
37%	36%	39%	43%	69%	93%	96%	97%	98%	81%	Home
34%	38%	42%	42%	69%	94%	95%	97%	98%	81%	Draw
37%	41%	47%	53%	70%	93%	95.6%	97.2%	97.8%	83%	Away

France

Austria - France
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
69%	74%	75%	78%	90%	98.6%	Pol - Net
67%	72%	72%	74%	89%	98.5%	92%	Home
69%	73%	75%	76%	90%	98.6%	93%	Draw
70%	75%	76%	80%	90%	98.6%	93%	Away

Poland

Poland - Netherlands
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
85%	82%	78%	72%	38%	22%	19%	16%	14%	Aus - Fra
81%	82%	78%	72%	37%	20%	17%	15%	13%	31%	Home
85%	82%	78%	74%	37%	21%	18%	16%	14%	32%	Draw
86%	83%	78%	72%	38%	24%	20%	17%	15%	33%	Away

Austria

Austria - France
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
90%	69%	54%	50%	46%	42%	Pol - Net
90%	68%	50%	47%	43%	42%	59%	Home
90%	69%	54%	51%	47%	42%	61%	Draw
90%	70%	54%	50%	46%	42%	61%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
2.82; Netherlands have 8.6% if they win against Poland; otherwise 5.3%
2.58; Netherlands have 8% if they draw (or win) against Poland; otherwise 4.1%
1.72; France have 21% if they draw (or win) against Austria; otherwise 16%
1.56; France have 21% if they win against Austria; otherwise 17%
1.04; Austria have 2.3% if they draw (or win) against France; otherwise 1.3%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Spain (71%) Italy (25%)
		Spain (52%) Italy (17%) Czechia (3%)
Czechia (11%) Turkey (11%) Greece (10%) Slovakia (10%) Hungary (9%)
				Spain (31%) Germany (30%) Italy (9%) England (7%)
Germany (73%) Switzerland (21%)
		Germany (51%) England (14%) Denmark (10%)
Denmark (30%) England (26%) Serbia (26%) Slovenia (19%)
						Spain (18%) Germany (18%) Portugal (14%) France (10%) Netherlands (7%)
Portugal (63%) Czechia (14%) Turkey (12%)
		Portugal (42%) Croatia (11%) Italy (7%) Czechia (6%)
Croatia (19%) Italy (13%) Hungary (12%) Serbia (11%) Denmark (10%)
				Portugal (24%) France (14%) Netherlands (13%) Belgium (8%)
Netherlands (36%) France (28%) Austria (24%)
		Netherlands (24%) France (21%) Ukraine (16%) Belgium (14%)
Ukraine (40%) Belgium (26%) Slovakia (18%)
								France (20%) Spain (14%) Germany (12%) Portugal (10%) Belgium (8%)
Belgium (61%) Ukraine (27%)
		Belgium (38%) Ukraine (13%) Croatia (10%) Italy (7%)
Croatia (18%) Italy (12%) Serbia (10%) Denmark (10%) Slovenia (9%)
				France (30%) Belgium (20%) Netherlands (12%) Portugal (7%)
France (54%) Netherlands (29%) Austria (13%)
		France (42%) Netherlands (20%) Portugal (11%) Czechia (7%)
Czechia (29%) Turkey (25%) Greece (24%) Portugal (23%)
						France (22%) Belgium (12%) England (11%) Italy (8%) Croatia (8%)
England (54%) Denmark (21%) Serbia (16%)
		England (37%) Denmark (11%) Serbia (8%) Austria (6%)
Austria (13%) Slovakia (11%) Romania (10%) Netherlands (10%) Czechia (9%)
				England (20%) Italy (14%) Croatia (12%) Spain (11%) Germany (8%)
Switzerland (54%) Germany (22%) Scotland (16%)
		Italy (26%) Croatia (20%) Spain (18%) Switzerland (17%)
Italy (41%) Croatia (31%) Spain (26%)

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
4	-	31%	31%	98.7%
3	0	6%	6%	91%
3	4-5	2.8%	2.3%	83%
3	3-4	2.2%	1.8%	80%
3	5-7	1.9%	1.4%	73%
3	4-6	3.0%	2.1%	69%
3	3-5	3.0%	1.9%	64%
3	2-4	1.5%	< 1%	61%
3	4-7	2.3%	1.2%	52%
3	3-6	2.6%	1.2%	47%
3	2-5	1.6%	< 1%	43%
3	4-8	1.6%	< 1%	35%
3	3-7	1.9%	< 1%	32%
3	-5	3.1%	< 1%	24%
2	-1	4.0%	< 1%	12%