US Open: Probabilities after Match Day 5

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
J Sinner (95%)
		J Sinner (83%) T Paul (15%)
T Paul (83%) G Diallo (17%)
				J Sinner (66%) D Medvedev (24%)
N Borges (58%) J Mensik (42%)
		D Medvedev (69%) N Borges (14%)
D Medvedev (82%) F Cobolli (18%)
						J Sinner (59%) D Medvedev (18%) A De Minaur (6%)
J Draper (71%) B Van De Zandschulp (29%)
		J Draper (44%) T Machac (31%) B Van De Zandschulp (12%)
T Machac (65%) D Goffin (35%)
				A De Minaur (28%) J Draper (24%) T Machac (14%) J Thompson (14%)
A De Minaur (76%) D Evans (24%)
		A De Minaur (47%) J Thompson (27%) M Arnaldi (19%)
J Thompson (56%) M Arnaldi (44%)
								J Sinner (49%) A Zverev (12%) D Medvedev (12%)
C Ruud (100%)
		T Fritz (51%) C Ruud (49%)
T Fritz (100%)
				A Zverev (50%) T Fritz (22%) C Ruud (21%)
B Nakashima (100%)
		A Zverev (79%) B Nakashima (21%)
A Zverev (100%)
						A Zverev (32%) G Dimitrov (20%) A Rublev (14%) T Fritz (11%)
A Rublev (100%)
		G Dimitrov (55%) A Rublev (45%)
G Dimitrov (100%)
				G Dimitrov (39%) A Rublev (30%) F Tiafoe (16%)
F Tiafoe (100%)
		F Tiafoe (52%) A Popyrin (48%)
A Popyrin (100%)

 

PL: Flying start for Brighton

Flying start for Brighton with two wins.  On Sunday we'll have an top match when Tottenham travels to Newcastle playing a match important for CL, EL and ECL.

Hot Teams
Brighton: 6 points in the last 2 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Arsenal: 6 points in the last 2 matches, 1.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 6 points in the last 2 matches, 1.6 more than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 2 matches, 1.4 more than expected
Forest: 4 points in the last 2 matches, 1.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 0 points in the last 2 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Everton: 0 points in the last 2 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Southampton: 0 points in the last 2 matches, 2.1 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 2 matches, 1.7 less than expected
Leicester: 1 point in the last 2 matches, 1.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
6	Man City	87.9	+62	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.92%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
6	Arsenal	77.8	+41	< 1%	99.71%	99.36%	98.5%	96.5%	14%	< 1%	1.5%	98.1%
6	Liverpool	72.4	+31	< 1%	97.9%	96.2%	93%	86%	4.3%	1.3%	6%	91%
3	Chelsea	60.7	+14	< 1%	71%	60%	47%	30%	< 1%	7%	33%	41%
4	Newcastle	59.4	+10	< 1%	64%	53%	39%	24%	< 1%	10%	25%	34%
4	Tottenham	58.2	+11	< 1%	58%	47%	34%	20%	< 1%	10%	20%	38%
3	Man United	56.2	+5	< 1%	47%	36%	24%	13%	< 1%	10%	19%	28%
3	Aston Villa	56.0	+4	< 1%	46%	34%	23%	12%	< 1%	11%	20%	20%
6	Brighton	52.0	-3	2.7%	25%	17%	10%	4.7%	< 1%	9%	13%	8%
0	Crystal Palace	51.0	-2	3.6%	22%	15%	8%	3.8%	< 1%	9%	14%	7%
3	West Ham	50.5	-3	4.1%	20%	13%	7%	3.3%	< 1%	7%	11%	6%
3	Brentford	49.2	-8	6%	15%	10%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	7%	9%	4.2%
3	Fulham	49.1	-7	6%	15%	9%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	6%	9%	4.1%
2	Bournemouth	45.4	-11	14%	7%	3.8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	4.1%	1.5%
0	Everton	45.2	-15	15%	6%	3.5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	4.0%	1.3%
0	Wolves	42.6	-19	24%	3.1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	2.0%	< 1%
4	Forest	42.1	-20	26%	2.5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	4.0%	< 1%
1	Leicester	39.3	-21	40%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	2.1%	< 1%
0	Southampton	33.5	-31	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Ipswich	31.5	-37	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Tottenham (2.2%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Newcastle	40%	31%	26%
Tottenham	34%	38%	46%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Tottenham (2.3%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Newcastle	65%	56%	50%
Tottenham	53%	59%	67%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Tottenham (2.1%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Newcastle	74%	65%	60%
Tottenham	63%	68%	75%

 

 

 

PL: Match Week 1

Most positive start for Brighton, Aston Villa and Brentford.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
3	Man City	87.6	+62	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.91%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
3	Arsenal	76.5	+39	< 1%	99.45%	98.9%	97.7%	95%	12%	< 1%	2.2%	97.0%
3	Liverpool	71.6	+31	< 1%	97.3%	95.2%	92%	84%	4.2%	1.6%	7%	90%
3	Newcastle	59.8	+10	< 1%	65%	54%	41%	26%	< 1%	9%	24%	36%
0	Chelsea	59.2	+11	< 1%	63%	52%	39%	24%	< 1%	8%	34%	34%
3	Man United	57.5	+6	< 1%	54%	42%	30%	18%	< 1%	10%	20%	33%
1	Tottenham	57.2	+8	< 1%	53%	41%	29%	17%	< 1%	10%	19%	35%
3	Aston Villa	57.2	+5	< 1%	52%	40%	28%	16%	< 1%	11%	21%	25%
0	Crystal Palace	52.8	+1	2.5%	30%	21%	13%	7%	< 1%	10%	17%	11%
3	Brighton	50.4	-4	4.5%	20%	13%	8%	3.5%	< 1%	8%	10%	6%
3	Brentford	49.8	-7	6%	17%	11%	6%	2.8%	< 1%	7%	10%	5%
0	West Ham	48.5	-6	7%	14%	9%	4.8%	2.1%	< 1%	6%	8%	3.9%
0	Fulham	48.0	-7	9%	12%	8%	4.2%	1.8%	< 1%	6%	8%	3.4%
0	Everton	46.0	-12	13%	8%	4.7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	4.8%	1.9%
1	Bournemouth	45.7	-12	14%	7%	4.4%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	4.5%	1.8%
0	Wolves	43.9	-15	20%	4.7%	2.7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.8%	1.0%
1	Forest	40.3	-21	36%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	3.5%	< 1%
1	Leicester	40.2	-21	37%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	2.3%	< 1%
0	Southampton	35.0	-30	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
0	Ipswich	31.6	-37	82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95.9%	68%	26%	4.1%	35%	11%	4.1%
Arsenal	41%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	27%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	32%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Wolves	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Forest	2.9%	< 1%
Leicester	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Southampton	1.1%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Man United (2%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Man United	47%	52%	60%
Brighton	21%	15%	12%

	Liverpool			Chelsea			Newcastle			Tottenham			Man United			Aston Villa			Crystal Palace			Brighton			Brentford			West Ham			Fulham			Everton			Bournemouth			Wolves			Forest			Leicester			Southampton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	35%	4.8%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	2.8%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	41%	5%	100%	3.1%	< 1%	100%	3.7%	< 1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	46%	5%	>99.99%	4.1%	1.0%	100%	4.9%	1.2%	>99.99%	2.3%	< 1%	99.9%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	51%	5%	>99.99%	5%	1.3%	>99.99%	6%	1.5%	100%	3.1%	< 1%	99.9%	3.5%	< 1%	99.9%	3.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	56%	5%	>99.99%	7%	1.6%	99.9%	8%	1.8%	99.9%	4.2%	1.0%	99.9%	4.6%	1.1%	99.9%	4.1%	1.0%	99.9%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	62%	5%	99.99%	9%	1.9%	99.9%	10%	2.1%	99.9%	5%	1.3%	99.9%	6%	1.4%	99.9%	5%	1.3%	99.9%	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	66%	4.9%	99.98%	11%	2.3%	99.9%	13%	2.6%	99.9%	7%	1.6%	99.9%	8%	1.7%	99.9%	7%	1.6%	99.9%	2.1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	71%	4.7%	99.9%	14%	2.7%	99.8%	16%	2.9%	99.7%	9%	2.0%	99.7%	10%	2.1%	99.7%	9%	1.9%	99.7%	2.8%	< 1%	99.7%	1.3%	< 1%	99%	1.0%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	75%	4.3%	99.8%	17%	3.1%	99.7%	19%	3.3%	99.5%	11%	2.3%	99.5%	12%	2.4%	99.4%	11%	2.3%	99.3%	3.8%	< 1%	99.1%	1.8%	< 1%	99%	1.4%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	79%	3.9%	99.7%	21%	3.5%	99.3%	23%	3.7%	98.9%	14%	2.7%	98.9%	15%	2.8%	98.9%	14%	2.7%	98.6%	5.0%	1.2%	99%	2.5%	< 1%	98%	2.0%	< 1%	98%	1.3%	< 1%	99%	1.1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	83%	3.5%	99.3%	25%	3.9%	98.6%	27%	4.1%	98.1%	17%	3.1%	97.9%	18%	3.2%	97.8%	17%	3.1%	97.6%	6%	1.5%	97%	3.3%	< 1%	97%	2.7%	< 1%	97%	1.9%	< 1%	97%	1.6%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	86%	3.1%	98.4%	29%	4.3%	97.6%	31%	4.4%	96.5%	21%	3.5%	96.5%	22%	3.6%	96%	20%	3.5%	96%	8%	1.8%	96%	4.4%	1.1%	95%	3.6%	< 1%	95%	2.5%	< 1%	95%	2.2%	< 1%	95%	1.1%	< 1%	95%	1.0%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	89%	2.7%	97%	34%	4.6%	95.7%	36%	4.7%	94%	25%	3.9%	94%	26%	4.0%	94%	24%	3.9%	93%	10%	2.1%	92%	6%	1.3%	91%	4.8%	1.2%	91%	3.4%	< 1%	92%	2.9%	< 1%	91%	1.6%	< 1%	91%	1.4%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	91%	2.3%	94%	38%	4.8%	93%	41%	4.9%	90%	29%	4.3%	91%	30%	4.3%	89%	29%	4.2%	88%	13%	2.5%	88%	7%	1.6%	86%	6%	1.4%	86%	4.5%	1.1%	86%	3.9%	< 1%	86%	2.2%	< 1%	87%	2.0%	< 1%	86%	1.1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	93%	1.9%	90%	43%	5%	89%	46%	5%	84%	33%	4.5%	85%	35%	4.6%	84%	33%	4.6%	82%	16%	2.9%	81%	9%	2.0%	78%	8%	1.8%	78%	6%	1.4%	79%	5%	1.2%	79%	2.9%	< 1%	78%	2.7%	< 1%	79%	1.5%	< 1%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	87%
60	95%	1.6%	83%	49%	5%	83%	51%	5%	77%	38%	4.8%	78%	40%	4.9%	76%	38%	4.8%	73%	19%	3.3%	72%	12%	2.3%	69%	10%	2.1%	68%	8%	1.7%	69%	7%	1.5%	69%	3.9%	< 1%	69%	3.6%	< 1%	68%	2.1%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	75%
59	95.9%	1.3%	74%	54%	5%	75%	56%	5%	67%	43%	5.0%	69%	45%	5%	67%	43%	5%	63%	23%	3.8%	61%	14%	2.7%	58%	13%	2.5%	57%	10%	2.0%	57%	8%	1.8%	58%	5%	1.2%	56%	4.7%	1.1%	57%	2.8%	< 1%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	58%
58	96.9%	1.0%	63%	59%	5%	67%	62%	5%	55%	48%	5%	58%	50%	5%	56%	48%	5%	50%	27%	4.1%	49%	18%	3.2%	45%	15%	2.9%	43%	12%	2.4%	44%	11%	2.2%	45%	7%	1.5%	43%	6%	1.4%	44%	3.7%	< 1%	44%	1.1%	< 1%	47%	1.1%	< 1%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	47%
57	97.7%	< 1%	51%	64%	5.0%	58%	66%	4.8%	43%	54%	5%	47%	55%	5%	44%	53%	5%	38%	31%	4.5%	37%	21%	3.6%	32%	19%	3.3%	31%	15%	2.8%	32%	13%	2.6%	32%	8%	1.8%	30%	8%	1.7%	31%	4.9%	1.2%	31%	1.6%	< 1%	34%	1.5%	< 1%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	34%
56	98.3%	< 1%	39%	69%	4.7%	49%	71%	4.6%	30%	59%	5%	37%	60%	5%	33%	58%	5%	26%	36%	4.7%	26%	25%	3.9%	21%	22%	3.7%	20%	18%	3.2%	22%	16%	3.0%	21%	11%	2.2%	19%	10%	2.1%	20%	6%	1.5%	19%	2.2%	< 1%	23%	2.0%	< 1%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	22%
55	98.8%	< 1%	28%	73%	4.5%	40%	75%	4.3%	20%	64%	5.0%	28%	65%	4.9%	25%	63%	5.0%	16%	41%	4.9%	17%	29%	4.3%	12%	26%	4.1%	12%	21%	3.6%	13%	20%	3.4%	12%	13%	2.5%	11%	12%	2.4%	12%	8%	1.7%	11%	2.9%	< 1%	13%	2.8%	< 1%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	14%
54	99.15%	< 1%	21%	77%	4.1%	35%	79%	3.9%	13%	68%	4.8%	21%	70%	4.7%	19%	68%	4.8%	9%	46%	5%	11%	34%	4.6%	7%	31%	4.4%	7%	25%	4.0%	7%	23%	3.8%	7%	16%	3.0%	6%	15%	2.8%	6%	10%	2.1%	6%	3.9%	< 1%	8%	3.7%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	7%
53	99.41%	< 1%	17%	81%	3.7%	31%	83%	3.5%	8%	73%	4.5%	18%	74%	4.4%	15%	73%	4.5%	5%	51%	5%	7%	39%	4.9%	3.4%	36%	4.7%	3.5%	30%	4.3%	3.8%	28%	4.2%	3.7%	20%	3.4%	2.8%	18%	3.2%	2.7%	13%	2.5%	2.5%	5%	1.2%	5%	4.9%	1.2%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	3%
52	99.59%	< 1%	13%	84%	3.3%	29%	86%	3.2%	6%	77%	4.1%	16%	78%	4.0%	13%	77%	4.2%	2.7%	57%	5%	4.9%	44%	5%	1.6%	40%	4.9%	2.1%	34%	4.7%	2.4%	32%	4.5%	2.2%	23%	3.8%	1.5%	22%	3.7%	1.3%	16%	2.9%	< 1%	7%	1.6%	3%	6%	1.5%	2%	1.3%	< 1%	2%
51	99.73%	< 1%	13%	87%	2.9%	28%	89%	2.7%	5%	81%	3.8%	15%	82%	3.6%	11%	81%	3.8%	1.6%	62%	5%	3.9%	49%	5%	1.0%	46%	5%	1.4%	39%	4.9%	1.8%	37%	4.8%	1.5%	27%	4.2%	< 1%	26%	4.1%	< 1%	19%	3.3%	< 1%	9%	1.9%	3%	8%	1.8%	2%	1.8%	< 1%	1%
50	99.82%	< 1%	13%	90%	2.5%	28%	91%	2.3%	4%	84%	3.4%	15%	85%	3.2%	11%	84%	3.4%	1.4%	66%	4.9%	4.0%	55%	5%	< 1%	51%	5%	1.3%	44%	5%	1.5%	42%	5%	1.4%	32%	4.5%	< 1%	31%	4.4%	< 1%	23%	3.7%	< 1%	11%	2.2%	3%	10%	2.2%	1.4%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
49	99.88%	< 1%	14%	92%	2.2%	28%	93%	2.0%	4%	87%	3.0%	14%	88%	2.9%	11%	87%	3.0%	1.2%	71%	4.6%	3.9%	60%	5%	< 1%	56%	5%	1.4%	50%	5%	1.4%	47%	5%	1.2%	37%	4.8%	< 1%	35%	4.7%	< 1%	27%	4.1%	< 1%	13%	2.6%	2.7%	13%	2.6%	1.5%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
48	99.93%	< 1%	10%	94%	1.8%	28%	94%	1.6%	4%	90%	2.5%	14%	90%	2.5%	12%	90%	2.6%	1.2%	75%	4.3%	3.7%	65%	5%	< 1%	61%	5%	1.3%	55%	5%	1.4%	52%	5%	1.2%	42%	5%	< 1%	40%	5.0%	< 1%	31%	4.5%	< 1%	16%	3.1%	2.6%	16%	3.0%	1.5%	4.4%	1.1%	1%
47	99.95%	< 1%	13%	95.1%	1.5%	28%	95.8%	1.3%	4%	92%	2.2%	14%	92%	2.0%	11%	92%	2.2%	1.3%	79%	3.9%	3.8%	69%	4.8%	< 1%	66%	5.0%	1.2%	60%	5%	1.4%	57%	5%	1.2%	47%	5%	< 1%	45%	5%	< 1%	36%	4.8%	< 1%	20%	3.5%	2.6%	19%	3.4%	1.5%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
46	99.97%	< 1%	12%	96.3%	1.2%	28%	96.9%	1.1%	4%	94%	1.8%	14%	94%	1.7%	11%	94%	1.8%	1.2%	83%	3.5%	3.5%	74%	4.5%	< 1%	71%	4.8%	1.2%	65%	5%	1.4%	63%	5%	1.3%	52%	5%	< 1%	51%	5%	< 1%	41%	5%	< 1%	24%	3.9%	2.6%	23%	3.9%	1.5%	8%	1.7%	< 1%
45	99.98%	< 1%	-	97.3%	< 1%	28%	97.7%	< 1%	4%	95.2%	1.5%	14%	95.5%	1.4%	12%	95.1%	1.5%	1.2%	86%	3.2%	4%	78%	4.1%	< 1%	75%	4.4%	1.2%	70%	4.8%	1.4%	67%	4.9%	1.3%	57%	5%	< 1%	56%	5%	< 1%	46%	5%	< 1%	28%	4.3%	2.6%	27%	4.2%	1.4%	10%	2.1%	1.1%
44	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.0%	< 1%	28%	98.3%	< 1%	5%	96.3%	1.2%	15%	96.6%	1.1%	11%	96.3%	1.2%	1%	89%	2.7%	4%	82%	3.8%	< 1%	79%	4.0%	1.3%	74%	4.5%	1.3%	72%	4.6%	1.2%	63%	5%	< 1%	61%	5%	< 1%	52%	5%	< 1%	33%	4.6%	2.6%	32%	4.6%	1.5%	12%	2.4%	< 1%
43	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.6%	< 1%	29%	98.8%	< 1%	4%	97.3%	< 1%	14%	97.5%	< 1%	11%	97.3%	< 1%	1%	91%	2.3%	4%	85%	3.3%	< 1%	83%	3.7%	1.2%	78%	4.1%	1.3%	76%	4.3%	1.3%	68%	4.9%	< 1%	66%	5%	< 1%	57%	5%	< 1%	38%	5.0%	2.6%	37%	5.0%	1.5%	15%	2.9%	< 1%
42	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.0%	< 1%	27%	99.15%	< 1%	4%	98.0%	< 1%	15%	98.2%	< 1%	11%	98.0%	< 1%	1%	93%	1.9%	4%	88%	2.9%	< 1%	86%	3.2%	1.3%	82%	3.7%	1.4%	80%	3.9%	1.3%	72%	4.7%	< 1%	71%	4.8%	< 1%	62%	5%	< 1%	43%	5%	2.5%	42%	5%	1.5%	18%	3.4%	< 1%
41	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.29%	< 1%	28%	99.41%	< 1%	4%	98.6%	< 1%	14%	98.7%	< 1%	12%	98.6%	< 1%	1%	95%	1.6%	4%	91%	2.5%	< 1%	89%	2.7%	1.2%	85%	3.3%	1.4%	84%	3.5%	1.3%	76%	4.3%	< 1%	75%	4.4%	< 1%	67%	5%	< 1%	48%	5%	2.5%	48%	5%	1.4%	22%	3.7%	< 1%
40	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.51%	< 1%	28%	99.60%	< 1%	5%	99.0%	< 1%	15%	99.10%	< 1%	12%	99.01%	< 1%	1%	96.0%	1.3%	4%	93%	2.1%	< 1%	91%	2.4%	1.2%	88%	2.9%	1.4%	87%	3.1%	1.3%	80%	3.9%	< 1%	79%	4.1%	< 1%	72%	4.7%	< 1%	54%	5%	2.7%	53%	5%	1.4%	26%	4.2%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brighton vs Man United (2.1%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Brighton	30%	23%	19%
Man United	57%	62%	70%

	Liverpool			Chelsea			Newcastle			Tottenham			Man United			Aston Villa			Crystal Palace			Brighton			Brentford			West Ham			Fulham			Everton			Bournemouth			Wolves			Forest			Leicester			Southampton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	35%	4.8%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	2.8%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	41%	5%	100%	3.1%	< 1%	100%	3.7%	< 1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	46%	5%	100%	4.1%	1.0%	100%	4.9%	1.2%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	99.9%	2.6%	< 1%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	51%	5%	100%	5%	1.3%	100%	6%	1.5%	100%	3.1%	< 1%	100%	3.5%	< 1%	99.9%	3.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	56%	5%	100%	7%	1.6%	100%	8%	1.8%	100%	4.2%	1.0%	>99.99%	4.6%	1.1%	100%	4.1%	1.0%	99.9%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	62%	5%	>99.99%	9%	1.9%	>99.99%	10%	2.1%	100%	5%	1.3%	100%	6%	1.4%	99.9%	5%	1.3%	>99.99%	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	66%	4.9%	>99.99%	11%	2.3%	99.98%	13%	2.6%	99.98%	7%	1.6%	99.9%	8%	1.7%	99.99%	7%	1.6%	99.9%	2.1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	71%	4.7%	>99.99%	14%	2.7%	99.97%	16%	2.9%	99.9%	9%	2.0%	99.9%	10%	2.1%	99.9%	9%	1.9%	99.9%	2.8%	< 1%	99.9%	1.3%	< 1%	99.9%	1.0%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	75%	4.3%	99.98%	17%	3.1%	99.9%	19%	3.3%	99.9%	11%	2.3%	99.9%	12%	2.4%	99.8%	11%	2.3%	99.8%	3.8%	< 1%	99.8%	1.8%	< 1%	99.8%	1.4%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	79%	3.9%	99.9%	21%	3.5%	99.8%	23%	3.7%	99.7%	14%	2.7%	99.7%	15%	2.8%	99.7%	14%	2.7%	99.7%	5.0%	1.2%	99.7%	2.5%	< 1%	99.6%	2.0%	< 1%	99.7%	1.3%	< 1%	99.7%	1.1%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	83%	3.5%	99.8%	25%	3.9%	99.7%	27%	4.1%	99.5%	17%	3.1%	99.4%	18%	3.2%	99.5%	17%	3.1%	99.4%	6%	1.5%	99.2%	3.3%	< 1%	99.3%	2.7%	< 1%	99.3%	1.9%	< 1%	99%	1.6%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	86%	3.1%	99.6%	29%	4.3%	99.4%	31%	4.4%	99.1%	21%	3.5%	99.1%	22%	3.6%	98.9%	20%	3.5%	98.8%	8%	1.8%	98.8%	4.4%	1.1%	99%	3.6%	< 1%	99%	2.5%	< 1%	99%	2.2%	< 1%	98%	1.1%	< 1%	99%	1.0%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	89%	2.7%	99.1%	34%	4.6%	98.8%	36%	4.7%	98.3%	25%	3.9%	98.2%	26%	4.0%	98.2%	24%	3.9%	97.9%	10%	2.1%	98%	6%	1.3%	97%	4.8%	1.2%	97%	3.4%	< 1%	97%	2.9%	< 1%	97%	1.6%	< 1%	97%	1.4%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	91%	2.3%	98.2%	38%	4.8%	97.8%	41%	4.9%	96.9%	29%	4.3%	97.0%	30%	4.3%	96.7%	29%	4.2%	96.3%	13%	2.5%	96%	7%	1.6%	95%	6%	1.4%	95%	4.5%	1.1%	95%	3.9%	< 1%	95%	2.2%	< 1%	95%	2.0%	< 1%	95%	1.1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	93%	1.9%	97%	43%	5%	96.0%	46%	5%	95%	33%	4.5%	95%	35%	4.6%	94%	33%	4.6%	94%	16%	2.9%	93%	9%	2.0%	91%	8%	1.8%	91%	6%	1.4%	92%	5%	1.2%	92%	2.9%	< 1%	91%	2.7%	< 1%	92%	1.5%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
60	95%	1.6%	94%	49%	5%	93%	51%	5%	91%	38%	4.8%	91%	40%	4.9%	91%	38%	4.8%	89%	19%	3.3%	88%	12%	2.3%	87%	10%	2.1%	86%	8%	1.7%	86%	7%	1.5%	86%	3.9%	< 1%	87%	3.6%	< 1%	86%	2.1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
59	95.9%	1.3%	90%	54%	5%	89%	56%	5%	85%	43%	5.0%	86%	45%	5%	85%	43%	5%	83%	23%	3.8%	82%	14%	2.7%	80%	13%	2.5%	79%	10%	2.0%	79%	8%	1.8%	79%	5%	1.2%	78%	4.7%	1.1%	78%	2.8%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	80%
58	96.9%	1.0%	83%	59%	5%	84%	62%	5%	78%	48%	5%	79%	50%	5%	77%	48%	5%	75%	27%	4.1%	73%	18%	3.2%	70%	15%	2.9%	68%	12%	2.4%	69%	11%	2.2%	70%	7%	1.5%	68%	6%	1.4%	69%	3.7%	< 1%	68%	1.1%	< 1%	69%	1.1%	< 1%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	71%
57	97.7%	< 1%	75%	64%	5.0%	77%	66%	4.8%	68%	54%	5%	70%	55%	5%	68%	53%	5%	64%	31%	4.5%	63%	21%	3.6%	58%	19%	3.3%	57%	15%	2.8%	57%	13%	2.6%	57%	8%	1.8%	55%	8%	1.7%	56%	4.9%	1.2%	56%	1.6%	< 1%	58%	1.5%	< 1%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	59%
56	98.3%	< 1%	65%	69%	4.7%	68%	71%	4.6%	56%	59%	5%	60%	60%	5%	57%	58%	5%	53%	36%	4.7%	51%	25%	3.9%	45%	22%	3.7%	44%	18%	3.2%	45%	16%	3.0%	45%	11%	2.2%	42%	10%	2.1%	42%	6%	1.5%	43%	2.2%	< 1%	45%	2.0%	< 1%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	44%
55	98.8%	< 1%	53%	73%	4.5%	58%	75%	4.3%	43%	64%	5.0%	48%	65%	4.9%	46%	63%	5.0%	39%	41%	4.9%	38%	29%	4.3%	33%	26%	4.1%	32%	21%	3.6%	32%	20%	3.4%	32%	13%	2.5%	30%	12%	2.4%	30%	8%	1.7%	29%	2.9%	< 1%	32%	2.8%	< 1%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	32%
54	99.15%	< 1%	44%	77%	4.1%	50%	79%	3.9%	31%	68%	4.8%	38%	70%	4.7%	36%	68%	4.8%	28%	46%	5%	27%	34%	4.6%	22%	31%	4.4%	21%	25%	4.0%	22%	23%	3.8%	21%	16%	3.0%	19%	15%	2.8%	19%	10%	2.1%	19%	3.9%	< 1%	21%	3.7%	< 1%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
53	99.41%	< 1%	36%	81%	3.7%	42%	83%	3.5%	21%	73%	4.5%	30%	74%	4.4%	27%	73%	4.5%	18%	51%	5%	18%	39%	4.9%	13%	36%	4.7%	12%	30%	4.3%	13%	28%	4.2%	13%	20%	3.4%	12%	18%	3.2%	11%	13%	2.5%	11%	5%	1.2%	12%	4.9%	1.2%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	11%
52	99.59%	< 1%	27%	84%	3.3%	37%	86%	3.2%	14%	77%	4.1%	24%	78%	4.0%	21%	77%	4.2%	12%	57%	5%	12%	44%	5%	8%	40%	4.9%	8%	34%	4.7%	8%	32%	4.5%	8%	23%	3.8%	7%	22%	3.7%	6%	16%	2.9%	5%	7%	1.6%	7%	6%	1.5%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	6%
51	99.73%	< 1%	27%	87%	2.9%	34%	89%	2.7%	10%	81%	3.8%	21%	82%	3.6%	17%	81%	3.8%	8%	62%	5%	9%	49%	5%	4.6%	46%	5%	4.5%	39%	4.9%	4.9%	37%	4.8%	4.8%	27%	4.2%	4.2%	26%	4.1%	2.9%	19%	3.3%	2.6%	9%	1.9%	5%	8%	1.8%	4%	1.8%	< 1%	3%
50	99.82%	< 1%	24%	90%	2.5%	32%	91%	2.3%	8%	84%	3.4%	19%	85%	3.2%	16%	84%	3.4%	6%	66%	4.9%	7%	55%	5%	3.3%	51%	5%	3.3%	44%	5%	3.5%	42%	5%	3.3%	32%	4.5%	2.7%	31%	4.4%	1.7%	23%	3.7%	1.6%	11%	2.2%	4%	10%	2.2%	3%	2.5%	< 1%	2%
49	99.88%	< 1%	24%	92%	2.2%	32%	93%	2.0%	7%	87%	3.0%	18%	88%	2.9%	15%	87%	3.0%	5%	71%	4.6%	7%	60%	5%	2.6%	56%	5%	3.0%	50%	5%	2.9%	47%	5%	2.9%	37%	4.8%	2.3%	35%	4.7%	1.3%	27%	4.1%	1.2%	13%	2.6%	3%	13%	2.6%	2.3%	3.3%	< 1%	1%
48	99.93%	< 1%	21%	94%	1.8%	32%	94%	1.6%	7%	90%	2.5%	18%	90%	2.5%	15%	90%	2.6%	5%	75%	4.3%	6%	65%	5%	2.2%	61%	5%	2.6%	55%	5%	2.7%	52%	5%	2.7%	42%	5%	2.1%	40%	5.0%	1.1%	31%	4.5%	< 1%	16%	3.1%	2.9%	16%	3.0%	2.1%	4.4%	1.1%	1%
47	99.95%	< 1%	20%	95.1%	1.5%	32%	95.8%	1.3%	7%	92%	2.2%	18%	92%	2.0%	15%	92%	2.2%	5%	79%	3.9%	6%	69%	4.8%	2.3%	66%	5.0%	2.6%	60%	5%	2.6%	57%	5%	2.7%	47%	5%	2.2%	45%	5%	< 1%	36%	4.8%	< 1%	20%	3.5%	2.9%	19%	3.4%	2.1%	6%	1.4%	1.1%
46	99.97%	< 1%	27%	96.3%	1.2%	32%	96.9%	1.1%	7%	94%	1.8%	18%	94%	1.7%	15%	94%	1.8%	4%	83%	3.5%	6%	74%	4.5%	2.1%	71%	4.8%	2.5%	65%	5%	2.6%	63%	5%	2.7%	52%	5%	2.2%	51%	5%	1.0%	41%	5%	< 1%	24%	3.9%	2.9%	23%	3.9%	2.1%	8%	1.7%	1.1%
45	99.98%	< 1%	-	97.3%	< 1%	32%	97.7%	< 1%	7%	95.2%	1.5%	18%	95.5%	1.4%	15%	95.1%	1.5%	4%	86%	3.2%	6%	78%	4.1%	2.2%	75%	4.4%	2.4%	70%	4.8%	2.7%	67%	4.9%	2.6%	57%	5%	2.2%	56%	5%	< 1%	46%	5%	< 1%	28%	4.3%	2.9%	27%	4.2%	2.0%	10%	2.1%	1.3%
44	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.0%	< 1%	32%	98.3%	< 1%	7%	96.3%	1.2%	18%	96.6%	1.1%	14%	96.3%	1.2%	5%	89%	2.7%	6%	82%	3.8%	2.2%	79%	4.0%	2.6%	74%	4.5%	2.5%	72%	4.6%	2.7%	63%	5%	2.2%	61%	5%	< 1%	52%	5%	< 1%	33%	4.6%	2.9%	32%	4.6%	2.1%	12%	2.4%	< 1%
43	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.6%	< 1%	32%	98.8%	< 1%	7%	97.3%	< 1%	18%	97.5%	< 1%	14%	97.3%	< 1%	4%	91%	2.3%	6%	85%	3.3%	2.1%	83%	3.7%	2.5%	78%	4.1%	2.5%	76%	4.3%	2.6%	68%	4.9%	2.1%	66%	5%	1.1%	57%	5%	< 1%	38%	5.0%	2.9%	37%	5.0%	2.0%	15%	2.9%	1.1%
42	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.0%	< 1%	31%	99.15%	< 1%	7%	98.0%	< 1%	19%	98.2%	< 1%	15%	98.0%	< 1%	4%	93%	1.9%	6%	88%	2.9%	2.2%	86%	3.2%	2.6%	82%	3.7%	2.6%	80%	3.9%	2.7%	72%	4.7%	2.1%	71%	4.8%	1.0%	62%	5%	< 1%	43%	5%	2.8%	42%	5%	2.1%	18%	3.4%	1.2%
41	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.29%	< 1%	31%	99.41%	< 1%	7%	98.6%	< 1%	17%	98.7%	< 1%	15%	98.6%	< 1%	5%	95%	1.6%	6%	91%	2.5%	2.1%	89%	2.7%	2.4%	85%	3.3%	2.7%	84%	3.5%	2.7%	76%	4.3%	2.2%	75%	4.4%	< 1%	67%	5%	< 1%	48%	5%	2.8%	48%	5%	2.0%	22%	3.7%	1.1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Southampton vs Forest (3%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Southampton	41%	31%	26%
Forest	57%	63%	73%

	Ipswich			Southampton			Leicester			Forest			Wolves			Bournemouth			Everton			Fulham			West Ham			Brentford			Brighton			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
58	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	3.7%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.4%	100%	7%	1.5%	100%	11%	2.2%	100%	12%	2.4%	100%	15%	2.9%	100%	18%	3.2%	100%	27%	4.1%	100%
57	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	4.9%	1.2%	100%	8%	1.7%	100%	8%	1.8%	100%	13%	2.6%	100%	15%	2.8%	100%	19%	3.3%	100%	21%	3.6%	100%	31%	4.5%	100%
56	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.5%	100%	10%	2.1%	100%	11%	2.2%	100%	16%	3.0%	100%	18%	3.2%	100%	22%	3.7%	100%	25%	3.9%	100%	36%	4.7%	100%
55	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.8%	< 1%	100%	2.9%	< 1%	100%	8%	1.7%	100%	12%	2.4%	100%	13%	2.5%	100%	20%	3.4%	100%	21%	3.6%	100%	26%	4.1%	100%	29%	4.3%	100%	41%	4.9%	100%
54	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.7%	< 1%	100%	3.9%	< 1%	100%	10%	2.1%	100%	15%	2.8%	100%	16%	3.0%	100%	23%	3.8%	100%	25%	4.0%	100%	31%	4.4%	100%	34%	4.6%	100%	46%	5%	100%
53	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.9%	1.2%	100%	5%	1.2%	100%	13%	2.5%	100%	18%	3.2%	100%	20%	3.4%	100%	28%	4.2%	100%	30%	4.3%	100%	36%	4.7%	100%	39%	4.9%	100%	51%	5%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.5%	100%	7%	1.6%	100%	16%	2.9%	100%	22%	3.7%	100%	23%	3.8%	100%	32%	4.5%	100%	34%	4.7%	100%	40%	4.9%	100%	44%	5%	100%	57%	5%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	8%	1.8%	100%	9%	1.9%	100%	19%	3.3%	100%	26%	4.1%	100%	27%	4.2%	100%	37%	4.8%	100%	39%	4.9%	100%	46%	5%	100%	49%	5%	100%	62%	5%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	10%	2.2%	100%	11%	2.2%	100%	23%	3.7%	100%	31%	4.4%	100%	32%	4.5%	100%	42%	5%	100%	44%	5%	100%	51%	5%	100%	55%	5%	100%	66%	4.9%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.3%	< 1%	100%	13%	2.6%	100%	13%	2.6%	100%	27%	4.1%	100%	35%	4.7%	100%	37%	4.8%	100%	47%	5%	100%	50%	5%	100%	56%	5%	100%	60%	5%	100%	71%	4.6%	100%
48	1.4%	< 1%	100%	4.4%	1.1%	100%	16%	3.0%	100%	16%	3.1%	100%	31%	4.5%	>99.99%	40%	5.0%	100%	42%	5%	100%	52%	5%	100%	55%	5%	>99.99%	61%	5%	100%	65%	5%	100%	75%	4.3%	100%
47	1.9%	< 1%	99.9%	6%	1.4%	>99.99%	19%	3.4%	>99.99%	20%	3.5%	100%	36%	4.8%	>99.99%	45%	5%	>99.99%	47%	5%	>99.99%	57%	5%	100%	60%	5%	100%	66%	5.0%	>99.99%	69%	4.8%	>99.99%	79%	3.9%	100%
46	2.7%	< 1%	99.9%	8%	1.7%	99.9%	23%	3.9%	99.9%	24%	3.9%	99.9%	41%	5%	99.97%	51%	5%	99.97%	52%	5%	99.97%	63%	5%	99.98%	65%	5%	99.98%	71%	4.8%	99.98%	74%	4.5%	99.99%	83%	3.5%	>99.99%
45	3.6%	< 1%	99.7%	10%	2.1%	99.7%	27%	4.2%	99.8%	28%	4.3%	99.8%	46%	5%	99.9%	56%	5%	99.9%	57%	5%	99.9%	67%	4.9%	99.9%	70%	4.8%	99.9%	75%	4.4%	99.9%	78%	4.1%	99.9%	86%	3.2%	99.9%
44	4.8%	1.2%	98.9%	12%	2.4%	98.8%	32%	4.6%	99.3%	33%	4.6%	99.3%	52%	5%	99.5%	61%	5%	99.6%	63%	5%	99.6%	72%	4.6%	99.7%	74%	4.5%	99.7%	79%	4.0%	99.7%	82%	3.8%	99.7%	89%	2.7%	99.7%
43	6%	1.5%	97%	15%	2.9%	97.0%	37%	5.0%	97.9%	38%	5.0%	98.0%	57%	5%	98.6%	66%	5%	98.8%	68%	4.9%	98.6%	76%	4.3%	98.9%	78%	4.1%	99.0%	83%	3.7%	98.7%	85%	3.3%	99.0%	91%	2.3%	99.0%
42	8%	1.9%	92%	18%	3.4%	93%	42%	5%	95%	43%	5%	95%	62%	5%	96.2%	71%	4.8%	96.6%	72%	4.7%	96.6%	80%	3.9%	97.0%	82%	3.7%	97.1%	86%	3.2%	97%	88%	2.9%	97.1%	93%	1.9%	97%
41	10%	2.2%	83%	22%	3.7%	85%	48%	5%	89%	48%	5%	89%	67%	5%	92%	75%	4.4%	93%	76%	4.3%	92%	84%	3.5%	93%	85%	3.3%	93%	89%	2.7%	93%	91%	2.5%	94%	95%	1.6%	93%
40	13%	2.7%	72%	26%	4.2%	74%	53%	5%	80%	54%	5%	81%	72%	4.7%	84%	79%	4.1%	85%	80%	3.9%	85%	87%	3.1%	86%	88%	2.9%	87%	91%	2.4%	86%	93%	2.1%	86%	96.0%	1.3%	87%
39	16%	3.1%	57%	31%	4.6%	61%	58%	5%	69%	59%	5%	69%	76%	4.4%	74%	83%	3.6%	76%	84%	3.5%	75%	89%	2.7%	76%	91%	2.5%	77%	93%	2.0%	75%	94%	1.7%	77%	97.0%	1.0%	76%
38	20%	3.6%	42%	36%	4.9%	47%	64%	5%	56%	64%	5%	56%	80%	4.0%	61%	86%	3.2%	63%	87%	3.1%	62%	92%	2.3%	63%	93%	2.1%	65%	95%	1.6%	62%	95.8%	1.4%	64%	97.8%	< 1%	64%
37	24%	4.1%	29%	41%	5%	33%	69%	5%	42%	69%	5%	42%	84%	3.6%	47%	89%	2.8%	49%	90%	2.7%	49%	94%	1.9%	50%	94%	1.7%	50%	96.2%	1.3%	49%	96.9%	1.1%	51%	98.4%	< 1%	50%
36	28%	4.5%	18%	47%	5%	21%	73%	4.8%	30%	74%	4.7%	30%	87%	3.2%	34%	91%	2.4%	36%	92%	2.2%	35%	95.2%	1.5%	36%	95.8%	1.4%	37%	97.2%	1.0%	35%	97.8%	< 1%	36%	98.9%	< 1%	36%
35	33%	4.9%	11%	52%	6%	13%	78%	4.4%	19%	78%	4.3%	20%	90%	2.7%	23%	93%	2.0%	24%	94%	1.9%	24%	96.4%	1.2%	25%	96.9%	1.1%	25%	98.0%	< 1%	23%	98.4%	< 1%	24%	99.23%	< 1%	23%
34	38%	5%	6%	58%	6%	7%	82%	4.0%	12%	82%	3.9%	12%	92%	2.3%	15%	95.0%	1.6%	16%	95.3%	1.5%	15%	97.4%	< 1%	16%	97.8%	< 1%	16%	98.6%	< 1%	15%	98.9%	< 1%	15%	99.48%	< 1%	16%
33	44%	6%	2.7%	63%	5%	3.9%	85%	3.5%	7%	86%	3.4%	7%	94%	1.9%	8%	96.3%	1.3%	10%	96.5%	1.2%	8%	98.1%	< 1%	9%	98.4%	< 1%	9%	99.00%	< 1%	8%	99.24%	< 1%	9%	99.65%	< 1%	9%
32	50%	6%	1.2%	68%	5%	1.9%	88%	3.0%	4%	89%	3.0%	3%	95.3%	1.5%	5%	97.3%	< 1%	5%	97.5%	< 1%	5%	98.7%	< 1%	5%	98.9%	< 1%	5%	99.33%	< 1%	5%	99.50%	< 1%	4%	99.78%	< 1%	4%
31	55%	6%	< 1%	73%	5.0%	< 1%	91%	2.6%	1.8%	91%	2.5%	1.7%	96.5%	1.2%	3%	98.1%	< 1%	2%	98.2%	< 1%	2%	99.09%	< 1%	2%	99.24%	< 1%	2%	99.56%	< 1%	2%	99.67%	< 1%	2%	99.86%	< 1%	2%
30	61%	6%	< 1%	78%	4.5%	< 1%	93%	2.2%	< 1%	93%	2.1%	< 1%	97.5%	< 1%	1%	98.7%	< 1%	1%	98.7%	< 1%	1%	99.38%	< 1%	1%	99.49%	< 1%	< 1%	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	99.79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.91%	< 1%	1%
29	67%	6%	< 1%	82%	4.1%	< 1%	95%	1.8%	< 1%	95%	1.7%	< 1%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	99.10%	< 1%	< 1%	99.14%	< 1%	< 1%	99.59%	< 1%	< 1%	99.67%	< 1%	< 1%	99.82%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%
28	72%	5%	< 1%	85%	3.6%	< 1%	96.2%	1.4%	< 1%	96.3%	1.4%	< 1%	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.40%	< 1%	< 1%	99.42%	< 1%	< 1%	99.73%	< 1%	< 1%	99.79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%
27	77%	4.8%	< 1%	89%	3.1%	< 1%	97.3%	1.1%	< 1%	97.3%	1.1%	< 1%	99.15%	< 1%	< 1%	99.60%	< 1%	< 1%	99.61%	< 1%	< 1%	99.83%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	1%
26	81%	4.3%	< 1%	91%	2.6%	< 1%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	98.1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.44%	< 1%	< 1%	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	< 1%	-
25	85%	3.8%	< 1%	93%	2.2%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.63%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.92%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	68%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	65%
League cup winners	>99.99%	81%	74%
Sixth team	98.1%	90%	3.1%
Seventh team	85%	52%	2.7%
Eighth team	49%	9%	2.4%

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 64 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 41

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	42%	24%	34%	Man United
Tottenham	59%	21%	20%	Everton
Man City	90%	7%	3.1%	Ipswich
Southampton	44%	24%	32%	Forest
Crystal Palace	53%	23%	24%	West Ham
Fulham	57%	22%	21%	Leicester
Aston Villa	30%	24%	46%	Arsenal
Wolves	34%	24%	42%	Chelsea
Bournemouth	37%	24%	39%	Newcastle
Liverpool	69%	17%	13%	Brentford

Most likely combo of teams in CL

4.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.5%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
4.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
4.2%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
3.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

14%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
13%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
7%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
5%	Forest, Ipswich, Leicester
4.4%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
4.2%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
2.7%	Fulham, Ipswich, Southampton
2.4%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
2.4%	Forest, Leicester, Southampton
2.4%	Forest, Ipswich, Wolves