Premier League 2024/25

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
0	Man City	86.5	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.96%	99.84%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%
0	Arsenal	75.9	+39	< 1%	99.32%	98.6%	97.3%	94%	14%	< 1%	2.4%	96.6%
0	Liverpool	70.8	+30	< 1%	96.5%	94%	90%	82%	4.4%	2.0%	8%	88%
0	Chelsea	60.2	+12	< 1%	68%	57%	45%	29%	< 1%	7%	33%	40%
0	Newcastle	59.1	+10	< 1%	62%	52%	39%	25%	< 1%	9%	23%	34%
0	Tottenham	57.7	+8	< 1%	55%	44%	32%	19%	< 1%	9%	19%	37%
0	Man United	56.4	+6	< 1%	49%	38%	26%	15%	< 1%	10%	19%	30%
0	Aston Villa	55.3	+4	1.4%	43%	32%	22%	12%	< 1%	11%	19%	19%
0	Crystal Palace	54.0	+2	2.0%	36%	26%	17%	9%	< 1%	10%	19%	14%
0	West Ham	50.1	-5	6%	19%	13%	7%	3.5%	< 1%	7%	11%	6%
0	Fulham	48.9	-7	8%	15%	10%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	6%	9%	4.6%
0	Brighton	48.5	-7	8%	14%	9%	5%	2.3%	< 1%	6%	8%	4.2%
0	Brentford	48.3	-8	9%	14%	9%	4.8%	2.1%	< 1%	6%	8%	3.9%
0	Everton	47.7	-9	10%	12%	7%	4.1%	1.8%	< 1%	6%	7%	3.4%
0	Bournemouth	45.9	-12	15%	8%	4.8%	2.5%	1.1%	< 1%	3.6%	4.7%	2.0%
0	Wolves	44.3	-15	20%	5%	3.1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	3.1%	1.3%
0	Forest	40.9	-21	35%	2.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	3.7%	< 1%
0	Leicester	40.4	-21	38%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	2.4%	< 1%
0	Southampton	35.6	-30	65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Ipswich	32.3	-37	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	95.4%	67%	26%	4.0%	35%	10%	4.0%
Arsenal	42%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	27%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	32%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Tottenham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crystal Palace	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Wolves	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Forest	2.9%	< 1%
Leicester	2.0%	< 1%
Southampton	1.1%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.91%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.99%	68%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	65%
League cup winners	>99.99%	81%	74%
Sixth team	98.1%	90%	3.0%
Seventh team	85%	52%	2.7%
Eighth team	49%	9%	2.3%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 64 - 68
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 41
Most likely combo of teams in CL

5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
4.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.8%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
4.0%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.0%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
3.2%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Tottenham
2.7%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

13%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
12%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
6%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
4.9%	Forest, Ipswich, Leicester
4.4%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
3.0%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
2.6%	Brentford, Ipswich, Southampton
2.5%	Forest, Leicester, Southampton
2.5%	Brighton, Ipswich, Southampton
2.4%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves