Europe: Knockout Stage

 Here are the probabilities in the knockout stage before the draw.

England have 96.5% to get the extra CL spot, followed by Italy (47%), Spain (28%), and Portugal (19%).

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Liverpool	21	17-5	100%	75%	52%	35%	17%
2	19	Barcelona	19	28-13	100%	59%	29%	13%	7%
3	19	Arsenal	19	16-3	100%	62%	41%	26%	13%
4	19	Inter	19	11-1	100%	63%	42%	27%	14%
5	18	Atletico	18	20-12	100%	58%	26%	10%	5%
6	16	Leverkusen	16	15-7	100%	65%	33%	16%	8%
7	16	Lille	16	17-10	100%	51%	18%	6%	3.0%
8	16	Aston Villa	16	13-6	100%	48%	16%	4.9%	2.5%
9	15	Atalanta	15	20-6	72%	32%	17%	9%	4.4%
10	15	Dortmund	15	22-12	56%	16%	6%	2.1%	1.0%
11	15	Bayern	15	20-12	62%	22%	12%	6%	2.9%
12	15	Real Madrid	15	20-12	69%	29%	18%	10%	5%
13	15	Milan	15	14-11	56%	23%	9%	3.4%	1.7%
14	14	PSV	14	16-12	53%	20%	7%	2.5%	1.2%
15	13	Paris SG	13	14-9	75%	48%	24%	11%	6%
16	13	Benfica	13	16-12	59%	28%	9%	2.6%	1.3%
17	13	Monaco	13	13-13	37%	16%	4.8%	1.3%	< 1%
18	13	Brest	13	10-11	28%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	13	Feyenoord	13	18-21	36%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
20	12	Juventus	12	9-7	55%	24%	11%	4.2%	2.1%
21	12	Celtic	12	13-14	17%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	11	Man City	11	18-14	51%	21%	12%	7%	3.4%
23	11	Sporting	11	13-12	43%	13%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
24	11	Brugge	11	7-11	29%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	19	Lazio	19	17-5	100%	79%	52%	33%	17%
2	19	Bilbao	19	15-7	100%	77%	48%	29%	14%
3	18	Man United	18	16-9	100%	71%	37%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-9	100%	76%	46%	27%	13%
5	16	Frankfurt	16	14-10	100%	56%	26%	11%	6%
6	15	Lyon	15	16-8	100%	61%	32%	15%	8%
7	15	Olympiakos	15	9-3	100%	40%	14%	4.3%	2.1%
8	14	Rangers	14	16-10	100%	36%	11%	3.0%	1.5%
9	14	Bodoe Glimt	14	14-11	41%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
10	14	Anderlecht	14	14-12	53%	13%	4.9%	1.8%	< 1%
11	14	Steaua	14	10-9	30%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	13	Ajax	13	16-8	59%	20%	8%	3.1%	1.5%
13	13	Sociedad	13	13-9	74%	37%	18%	9%	4.3%
14	13	Galatasaray	13	19-16	71%	33%	15%	7%	3.3%
15	12	Roma	12	10-6	66%	46%	24%	12%	6%
16	12	Viktoria Plzen	12	13-12	46%	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
17	12	Ferencvaros	12	15-15	22%	7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
18	11	Porto	11	13-11	66%	49%	29%	16%	8%
19	11	Alkmaar	11	13-13	31%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
20	11	Midtjylland	11	9-9	24%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
21	11	St Gillis	11	8-8	62%	20%	8%	3.0%	1.5%
22	10	PAOK	10	12-10	49%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
23	10	Twente	10	8-9	48%	9%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
24	10	Fenerbahce	10	9-11	58%	16%	6%	2.5%	1.2%

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Chelsea	18	26-5	100%	95.5%	83%	69%	34%
2	14	Guimaraes	14	13-6	100%	76%	38%	15%	7%
3	13	Fiorentina	13	18-7	100%	93%	73%	52%	26%
4	13	Rapid Wien	13	10-5	100%	61%	21%	5%	2.6%
5	13	Djurgarden	13	11-7	100%	51%	16%	3.4%	1.7%
6	13	Lugano	13	11-7	100%	52%	16%	3.6%	1.8%
7	12	Legia	12	13-5	100%	36%	14%	4.1%	2.0%
8	11	Cercle Brugge	11	14-7	100%	38%	15%	4.7%	2.3%
9	11	Jagiellonia	11	10-5	64%	12%	4.2%	1.1%	< 1%
10	11	Shamrock	11	12-9	34%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	11	APOEL	11	8-5	56%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
12	10	Paphos	10	11-7	61%	16%	5%	1.2%	< 1%
13	10	Panathinaikos	10	10-7	90%	56%	24%	8%	3.8%
14	10	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	7-6	79%	35%	9%	1.7%	< 1%
15	10	Betis	10	6-5	67%	49%	31%	16%	8%
16	10	Heidenheim	10	7-7	47%	26%	12%	3.9%	1.9%
17	9	Gent	9	8-8	43%	26%	12%	4.7%	2.3%
18	8	FC Kobenhavn	8	8-9	43%	25%	12%	4.5%	2.3%
19	8	Vikingur	8	7-8	17%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Borac Banja Luka	8	4-7	14%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Celje	7	13-13	34%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Omonia	7	7-7	49%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Molde	7	10-11	66%	13%	4.9%	1.4%	< 1%
24	7	Backa Topola	7	10-13	36%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	96.5%	19.73	13.57	26.29
ITA	47%	16.45	11	23.38
ESP	28%	15.68	10.43	23.5
POR	19%	15.12	10.7	24.3
BEL	5.0%	13.85	10.3	22.7
CYP	2.3%	13.78	11.83	21
GRE	1.4%	12.89	9.38	21.63
NED	< 1%	11.37	8.33	20
GER	< 1%	11.78	8.69	17.94
FRA	< 1%	11.7	9.07	16.29
TUR	< 1%	10.36	8.3	15.9
NOR	< 1%	9.05	7.38	16.38

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 281 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	12%	33%	34%	17%	4.0%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	30%	69%	95%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 273 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.3%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3.7%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	27%	60%	86%	97.2%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 270 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	7%	22%	33%	25%	10%	1.4%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	18%	50%	81%	96%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 269 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.5%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1.6%
Chance if	2.1%	11%	36%	71%	94%	99.7%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 220 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	36%	41%	14%	1.3%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	20%	63%	94%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	38%	45%	16%	1.6%
Chance if	2.2%	17%	59%	97%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 153 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	33%	42%	17%
Chance if	< 1%	3.0%	22%	53%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 106 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	10%	37%	43%	9%
Chance if	3%	13%	35%	61%	77%

Number of quarterfinalists from BEL; 97 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	27%	48%	21%	3.6%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	12%	47%

Number of semifinalists from BEL; 86 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	63%	33%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	44%