Europa and Conference League - Bracket probabilities in last 16

England (98%) and Spain (76%) are favourites to win the extra CL slot, followed by Italy (17%) and Portugal (2.6%), Netherlands (2.3%), Belgium (1.9%) and Cyprus (1.2%). If we look at how their chances depend on how many teams advance to the quiarterfinals, England increase their chances if four of six teams advance, Spain increase if three of six teams advance. Italy need all four teams to advance to increase their chances, Portugal that both teams advance, while Netherlands that two of three teams advance to the quarterfinals.

Europa League

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lazio (50%) Bilbao (50%)
		Lazio (38%) Bilbao (38%) Viktoria Plzen (24%)
Viktoria Plzen (100%)
				Lazio (29%) Bilbao (28%) Bodoe Glimt (12%) Olympiakos (12%)
Rangers (50%) Olympiakos (50%)
		Bodoe Glimt (43%) Olympiakos (30%) Rangers (27%)
Bodoe Glimt (100%)
						Lazio (17%) Bilbao (16%) Tottenham (14%) Man United (13%) Ajax (8%)
Frankfurt (50%) Lyon (50%)
		Ajax (44%) Lyon (28%) Frankfurt (28%)
Ajax (100%)
				Tottenham (23%) Man United (23%) Ajax (18%) Lyon (14%) Frankfurt (13%)
Man United (50%) Tottenham (50%)
		Tottenham (37%) Man United (37%) Alkmaar (26%)
Alkmaar (100%)
								Lazio (15%) Bilbao (15%) Tottenham (13%) Man United (12%) Roma (10%)
Tottenham (50%) Man United (50%)
		Sociedad (40%) Tottenham (30%) Man United (30%)
Sociedad (100%)
				Sociedad (21%) Lyon (20%) Frankfurt (20%) Tottenham (19%) Man United (18%)
Lyon (50%) Frankfurt (50%)
		Lyon (41%) Frankfurt (41%) Steaua (18%)
Steaua (100%)
						Roma (19%) Lazio (11%) Bilbao (11%) Tottenham (10%) Man United (10%)
Olympiakos (50%) Rangers (50%)
		Fenerbahce (57%) Olympiakos (23%) Rangers (20%)
Fenerbahce (100%)
				Roma (33%) Fenerbahce (19%) Lazio (18%) Bilbao (18%)
Bilbao (50%) Lazio (50%)
		Roma (48%) Lazio (26%) Bilbao (26%)
Roma (100%)

 

Conference League

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Guimaraes (50%) Chelsea (50%)
		Betis (43%) Chelsea (39%) Guimaraes (18%)
Betis (100%)
				Chelsea (36%) Betis (32%) Guimaraes (11%)
Legia (50%) Cercle Brugge (50%)
		Jagiellonia (45%) Cercle Brugge (28%) Legia (27%)
Jagiellonia (100%)
						Chelsea (29%) Fiorentina (22%) Betis (18%) Panathinaikos (11%)
Lugano (50%) Djurgarden (50%)
		Celje (33%) Lugano (33%) Djurgarden (33%)
Celje (100%)
				Fiorentina (36%) Panathinaikos (32%) Rapid Wien (11%)
Fiorentina (50%) Rapid Wien (50%)
		Panathinaikos (43%) Fiorentina (39%) Rapid Wien (18%)
Panathinaikos (100%)
								Chelsea (46%) Fiorentina (28%) Betis (7%)
Rapid Wien (50%) Fiorentina (50%)
		Fiorentina (49%) Rapid Wien (43%)
Borac Banja Luka (100%)
				Fiorentina (44%) Rapid Wien (23%) Paphos (16%)
Djurgarden (50%) Lugano (50%)
		Paphos (51%) Djurgarden (25%) Lugano (25%)
Paphos (100%)
						Chelsea (33%) Fiorentina (27%) FC Kobenhavn (10%) Guimaraes (8%)
Cercle Brugge (50%) Legia (50%)
		Molde (48%) Cercle Brugge (27%) Legia (26%)
Molde (100%)
				Chelsea (40%) FC Kobenhavn (20%) Guimaraes (15%) Molde (11%)
Chelsea (50%) Guimaraes (50%)
		Chelsea (43%) FC Kobenhavn (32%) Guimaraes (24%)
FC Kobenhavn (100%)

 

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	98.0%	19.13	13.29	24.64
ESP	76%	16.8	12.57	23.5
ITA	17%	15.1	11.63	18.88
POR	2.6%	13.56	12.3	18.1
NED	2.3%	13.63	12	19.33
BEL	1.9%	13.99	12.7	18.5
CYP	1.2%	13.43	12.33	16.83
GRE	< 1%	12.11	10.13	17.25
GER	< 1%	12.7	10.44	17.31
FRA	< 1%	11.65	9.43	15.86
NOR	< 1%	10.66	9.13	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 263 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	12%	51%	85%	97.2%	99.7%	99.9%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 147 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.3%	25%	58%	13%
Chance if	< 1%	1.1%	16%	59%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 71 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	43%	46%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	22%

Number of quarterfinalists from ENG; 66 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	5%	18%	33%	32%	12%
Chance if	29%	81%	97.4%	99.81%	>99.99%	>99.99%

Number of quarterfinalists from NED; 56 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	27%	44%	24%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	22%

Number of quarterfinalists from BEL; 27 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	27%	51%	22%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%

Number of quarterfinalists from CYP; 11 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	49%	51%
Chance if	< 1%	2.3%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 9 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.3%	20%	45%	29%	3.5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Number of quarterfinalists from GRE; 8 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	26%	50%	23%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%

Number of quarterfinalists from FRA; 0 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	7%	31%	43%	19%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%