PL: Everton hottest in the league

Everton have four wins and a draw against rivals Liverpool in the last five matches. That is six points more than the average in simulations reflecting a considerate improvement after the return if David Moyes.

On Wednesday will league leaders Liverpool travel to the difficult Villa Park in a match worth a 11% swing, i.e., and win for Aston Villa would double the chances for Arsenal.

Hot Teams
Everton: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Brighton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Ipswich: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Newcastle: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected
Man United: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected
Aston Villa: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 less than expected

 

 

Important matches for title race
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (2.7%)	Home Win (27%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (50%)
Liverpool	79%	83%	90%
Arsenal	21%	17%	10%

 

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
60	Liverpool	86.8	+51	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
53	Arsenal	80.0	+44	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.81%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%
44	Man City	69.8	+30	< 1%	99.09%	97.0%	92%	82%	< 1%	1.0%	7%	91%
47	Forest	65.7	+13	< 1%	92%	81%	64%	42%	< 1%	7%	26%	62%
43	Chelsea	64.7	+19	< 1%	91%	79%	60%	36%	< 1%	4.7%	34%	58%
43	Bournemouth	63.2	+19	< 1%	85%	68%	46%	24%	< 1%	11%	35%	44%
41	Newcastle	61.4	+13	< 1%	72%	49%	28%	13%	< 1%	23%	38%	27%
38	Aston Villa	55.6	-4	< 1%	19%	9%	3.8%	1.3%	< 1%	13%	20%	4.9%
39	Fulham	55.5	+2	< 1%	19%	9%	3.6%	1.2%	< 1%	16%	15%	3.4%
37	Brighton	54.6	-1	< 1%	14%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	10%	2.1%
34	Brentford	51.3	-0	< 1%	5.0%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.9%	< 1%
32	Crystal Palace	49.1	-4	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	9%	< 1%
30	Tottenham	47.9	+12	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	13%
29	Man United	46.5	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	12%
30	Everton	45.4	-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	West Ham	43.6	-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	34.2	-23	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	28.9	-41	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Ipswich	27.7	-40	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Southampton	18.7	-53	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	85%		70%	20%
Arsenal	15%			18%
Man City	< 1%	35%		1.6%
Forest	< 1%	14%
Chelsea	< 1%			47%
Bournemouth	< 1%	7%
Newcastle	< 1%	9%	30%
Aston Villa		11%		1.3%
Fulham		4.4%
Brighton		1.9%
Crystal Palace		8%
Tottenham				13%
Man United		8%		12%
Wolves		< 1%
Ipswich