PL: City vs Villa in CL race

Five teams are fighting over the remaining three CL slots. Two of them, City and Villa, play a crucial match already tonight. City >95% if they win compared with 71% if they lose. Even larger swing for Villa with 45% if they win and 10% if they lose.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

79

Liverpool

88.8

+49

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99.91%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

66

Arsenal

76.1

+39

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.90%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

58

Man City

68.4

+28

< 1%

99.85%

97.1%

90%

75%

< 1%

< 1%

9%

90%

60

Forest

67.8

+15

< 1%

99.84%

94%

79%

54%

< 1%

1.2%

19%

79%

59

Newcastle

66.8

+19

< 1%

99.70%

91%

73%

44%

< 1%

2.0%

25%

73%

57

Chelsea

64.5

+19

< 1%

97.7%

72%

40%

20%

< 1%

2.8%

57%

40%

57

Aston Villa

63.3

+5

< 1%

91%

44%

18%

7%

< 1%

14%

66%

18%

49

Bournemouth

56.1

+12

< 1%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35%

4.2%

< 1%

48

Fulham

54.9

+3

< 1%

3.3%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

18%

2.2%

< 1%

48

Brighton

54.8

-0

< 1%

2.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16%

1.4%

< 1%

46

Brentford

53.3

+7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

10%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Crystal Palace

50.0

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20%

< 1%

38

Everton

45.1

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Man United

44.2

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21%

38

Wolves

44.0

-15

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Tottenham

43.3

+9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39%

36

West Ham

42.5

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Ipswich

25.5

-42

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

18

Leicester

23.5

-49

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

11

Southampton

14.5

-60

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	99.91%
Arsenal	< 1%			32%
Man City		47%
Forest		16%
Newcastle			100%
Chelsea				59%
Aston Villa		18%
Crystal Palace		20%
Man United				21%
Tottenham				39%

Important matches for CL race
Man City vs Aston Villa (13.9%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Aston Villa	10%	20%	45%
Man City	96.5%	86%	71%
Chelsea vs Everton (7.1%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Chelsea	50%	29%	21%
Newcastle	69%	77%	80%
Forest	76%	83%	86%
Forest vs Brentford (6.8%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Forest	89%	74%	63%
Chelsea	36%	42%	46%
Newcastle	70%	74%	77%
Newcastle vs Ipswich (6%)	Home Win (74%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (10%)
Newcastle	79%	59%	47%
Chelsea	37%	46%	50%
Aston Villa	16%	21%	24%
Forest	78%	82%	85%

	Man City			Forest			Newcastle			Chelsea			Tottenham			Man United			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	9%	9%	100%	4.9%	3.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	9%	< 1%	-	11%	6%	100%	3.8%	2.9%	100%	1.0%	1.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%
71	24%	15%	100%	15%	4.1%	100%	10%	7%	>99.99%	1.0%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	38%	15%	>99.99%	28%	13%	99.96%	14%	3.2%	99.99%	4.2%	3.1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.6%	1.2%	99.4%
69	48%	9%	99.97%	41%	13%	99.3%	27%	14%	99.6%	9%	5%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.4%	2.8%	95%
68	65%	18%	99.0%	51%	10%	97.2%	41%	14%	97.1%	13%	3.7%	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	1.8%	87%
67	77%	11%	96.6%	68%	16%	89%	51%	10%	92%	25%	12%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	14%	8%	65%
66	84%	8%	87%	79%	11%	70%	69%	17%	75%	37%	12%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	23%	9%	39%
65	92%	8%	66%	86%	8%	51%	80%	12%	52%	47%	10%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	31%	8%	20%
64	95.8%	3.7%	46%	94%	8%	27%	87%	7%	34%	64%	16%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	48%	16%	7%
63	97.9%	2.1%	22%	97.2%	3.5%	10%	95%	7%	14%	75%	12%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	61%	14%	1.6%
62	99.27%	1.3%	8%	98.8%	1.5%	4%	97.8%	3.3%	4%	84%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	72%	10%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points