PL: Liverpool are champions

The race for the CL slots gets tighter and it's probably gonna require 64-68 points. That means that Chelsea need 4-8 more points, Forest need 3-7 points, Newcastle need 2-6 points, and City need 3-7 points.

Chelase and Forest play on the last match day, which very well can be a decider, but Chelase play both Liverpool and Newcastle before that. 

 

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

82

Liverpool

89.5

+51

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Arsenal

74.8

+38

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

99.99%

99.74%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

>99.99%

61

Man City

69.3

+28

< 1%

99.99%

99.21%

95.3%

82%

< 1%

< 1%

4.4%

95.3%

60

Forest

67.8

+15

< 1%

99.87%

94%

74%

47%

< 1%

2.1%

23%

74%

62

Newcastle

67.4

+21

< 1%

99.96%

95.5%

77%

47%

< 1%

1.7%

21%

77%

60

Chelsea

65.5

+19

< 1%

99.67%

84%

46%

23%

< 1%

2.5%

51%

46%

57

Aston Villa

62.6

+5

< 1%

88%

26%

7%

1.8%

< 1%

29%

57%

7%

51

Fulham

56.1

+3

< 1%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21%

4.1%

< 1%

51

Brighton

56.0

+0

< 1%

3.4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

18%

2.2%

< 1%

50

Bournemouth

55.3

+11

< 1%

2.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16%

1.4%

< 1%

46

Brentford

53.3

+7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

50.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38%

< 1%

41

Wolves

45.0

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Everton

44.3

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Man United

44.3

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21%

37

Tottenham

42.8

+6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39%

36

West Ham

41.6

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Ipswich

25.0

-44

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

18

Leicester

22.7

-51

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

11

Southampton

13.5

-60

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	100%
Arsenal				32%
Man City		46%
Forest		15%
Newcastle			100%
Chelsea				59%
Crystal Palace		38%
Man United				21%
Tottenham				39%

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Liverpool (8.8%)	Home Win (31%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Chelsea	66%	44%	34%
Newcastle	69%	78%	82%
Forest	67%	75%	79%
Man City	93%	95.8%	96.7%
Forest vs Brentford (7.9%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Forest	86%	68%	57%
Chelsea	41%	49%	55%
Newcastle	73%	79%	82%
Brighton vs Newcastle (7.2%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Newcastle	66%	78%	92%
Chelsea	51%	46%	40%
Forest	78%	74%	70%
Crystal Palace vs Forest (5.9%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Forest	66%	76%	90%
Chelsea	51%	45%	39%
Newcastle	80%	76%	72%

	Man City			Newcastle			Forest			Chelsea			Tottenham			Man United			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
74	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	1.2%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	14%	14%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	-	4.9%	3.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	14%	< 1%	-	4.9%	3.6%	100%	11%	6%	100%	1.7%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	33%	19%	100%	14%	9%	>99.99%	15%	4.1%	100%	1.7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	52%	19%	>99.99%	17%	3.6%	>99.99%	28%	13%	99.93%	6%	4.7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	61%	9%	99.98%	33%	16%	99.5%	41%	13%	98.4%	15%	8%	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.0%	2.0%	89%
68	78%	17%	98.9%	51%	17%	95.6%	51%	10%	95.1%	19%	4.6%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.0%	< 1%	-
67	88%	10%	96.9%	60%	9%	91%	67%	16%	83%	35%	16%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	7%	5%	48%
66	93%	5.0%	87%	77%	17%	70%	79%	11%	57%	51%	16%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	16%	9%	23%
65	97.1%	4.6%	64%	89%	11%	42%	86%	8%	36%	61%	10%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	21%	4.9%	8%
64	98.9%	1.8%	46%	93%	4.5%	27%	94%	8%	16%	78%	17%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	38%	17%	2.0%
63	99.57%	< 1%	21%	98.2%	4.8%	8%	97.2%	3.6%	4%	89%	11%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	53%	16%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Fulham (12.7%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Fulham	< 1%	2.5%	13%
Aston Villa	75%	60%	45%
Bournemouth	< 1%	2.2%	2.6%
Brighton	< 1%	2.8%	3.9%