Premier League: Sunderland most positive surprise

 

Hot Teams
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected
Man City: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
15	Liverpool	79.4	+39	< 1%	99.90%	99.77%	99.46%	98.6%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	99.44%
13	Arsenal	76.4	+41	< 1%	99.65%	99.25%	98.4%	96.5%	35%	< 1%	1.1%	98.4%
10	Man City	66.9	+29	< 1%	92%	88%	81%	70%	5.0%	3.6%	11%	81%
8	Chelsea	62.3	+19	< 1%	79%	71%	59%	43%	1.4%	8%	18%	59%
12	Crystal Palace	60.5	+12	< 1%	70%	60%	47%	32%	< 1%	4.8%	35%	45%
6	Newcastle	55.9	+8	< 1%	46%	35%	24%	14%	< 1%	13%	20%	23%
11	Bournemouth	55.7	+2	< 1%	43%	33%	22%	13%	< 1%	9%	19%	21%
8	Brighton	53.7	+2	1.7%	33%	24%	15%	8%	< 1%	10%	15%	14%
6	Aston Villa	52.8	+2	2.2%	29%	20%	12%	6%	< 1%	6%	13%	30%
11	Tottenham	52.7	+3	2.1%	28%	20%	12%	6%	< 1%	9%	14%	12%
8	Everton	51.1	-1	3.5%	21%	14%	8%	4.2%	< 1%	7%	12%	8%
7	Man United	50.7	-5	4.1%	19%	13%	7%	3.6%	< 1%	6%	11%	7%
7	Brentford	49.0	-6	6%	14%	9%	4.8%	2.2%	< 1%	9%	10%	4.4%
8	Fulham	48.5	-7	7%	12%	8%	4.2%	1.9%	< 1%	8%	7%	3.9%
5	Forest	46.5	-10	12%	8%	4.8%	2.5%	1.1%	< 1%	2.9%	5%	13%
8	Leeds	43.9	-17	21%	3.5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	6%	< 1%
4	West Ham	40.3	-22	39%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Burnley	38.8	-23	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%
1	Wolves	35.6	-26	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	4.7%	< 1%
11	Sunderland	32.8	-39	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	57%	27%	26%	18%
Arsenal	35%	14%	24%	16%
Man City	5.0%	9%	16%	8%
Chelsea	1.4%	4.2%	10%	4.8%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.1%	2.8%	42%
Newcastle	< 1%	3.3%	7%	1.3%
Bournemouth	< 1%	2.8%
Brighton	< 1%	1.2%	2.0%
Aston Villa	< 1%	4.3%		21%
Tottenham	< 1%	1.4%	1.9%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Man United	< 1%	1.4%
Brentford	< 1%	3.4%	5%
Fulham	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%
Forest	< 1%	2.0%		11%
Leeds	< 1%	3.8%
West Ham	< 1%	< 1%
Burnley		3.0%
Wolves		4.6%	1.1%
Sunderland		< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	86%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	55%
League cup winners	>99.99%	79%	72%
Sixth team	98.8%	94%	3.3%
Seventh team	88%	58%	3.1%
Eighth team	55%	12%	3.1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Bournemouth	54%	22%	24%	Fulham
Leeds	42%	24%	34%	Tottenham
Arsenal	76%	15%	10%	West Ham
Man United	73%	16%	11%	Sunderland
Chelsea	39%	24%	37%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	63%	20%	17%	Burnley
Everton	44%	24%	32%	Crystal Palace
Newcastle	57%	22%	22%	Forest
Wolves	37%	24%	39%	Brighton
Brentford	33%	24%	42%	Man City

Most likely combo of teams in CL

9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
3.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.2%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.2%	Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.2%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.0%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
1.8%	Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

19%	Burnley, Sunderland, Wolves
15%	Sunderland, West Ham, Wolves
8%	Burnley, Sunderland, West Ham
7%	Leeds, Sunderland, Wolves
3.6%	Forest, Sunderland, Wolves
3.6%	Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland
3.4%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
2.7%	Leeds, Sunderland, West Ham
2.2%	Fulham, Sunderland, Wolves
2.2%	Burnley, Forest, Sunderland

 

Europa League: Matchday 1

Nine or ten points likely needed to finish top-24 and advance to the knockout stage.

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Aston Villa	18	19-9	99.70%	97.5%	85%	97.1%	74%	52%	34%	21%
2	3	Lyon	17	20-10	99.33%	95.6%	78%	93%	60%	33%	17%	8%
3	3	Roma	17	15-6	99.13%	94%	75%	94%	69%	47%	29%	17%
4	3	Lille	16	16-9	98.4%	91%	66%	91%	62%	38%	22%	12%
5	1	Forest	15	18-10	97.1%	87%	57%	88%	59%	36%	20%	11%
6	3	Porto	15	23-16	96.9%	86%	55%	83%	47%	23%	10%	4.5%
7	3	Stuttgart	15	13-11	95.6%	81%	48%	79%	43%	20%	9%	3.9%
8	0	Bologna	14	10-6	93%	75%	39%	77%	45%	24%	12%	6%
9	3	Genk	14	9-8	92%	72%	36%	65%	26%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
10	1	Betis	13	15-11	89%	67%	32%	70%	39%	20%	9%	4.2%
11	3	Braga	13	13-12	88%	64%	29%	62%	27%	10%	3.6%	1.3%
12	3	Freiburg	13	13-15	87%	60%	24%	58%	25%	9%	3.1%	1.1%
13	0	Feyenoord	12	11-8	83%	56%	21%	63%	34%	17%	8%	3.6%
14	3	Midtjylland	12	17-15	84%	56%	21%	53%	20%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
15	3	Panathinaikos	12	13-12	82%	54%	19%	43%	11%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
16	0	Fenerbahce	11	14-10	77%	48%	17%	52%	24%	10%	3.9%	1.5%
17	0	Celta	11	13-12	74%	45%	15%	49%	22%	9%	3.3%	1.3%
18	0	Nice	11	10-11	72%	41%	12%	47%	22%	9%	3.5%	1.4%
19	1	Celtic	10	14-10	68%	36%	10%	41%	17%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
20	3	Dinamo Zagreb	10	13-14	66%	33%	9%	28%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
21	3	Razgrad	10	10-14	60%	29%	7%	21%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	1	Viktoria Plzen	10	8-13	58%	28%	7%	27%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Steaua	10	7-13	57%	26%	6%	19%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	1	Crvena Zvezda	9	10-8	57%	26%	6%	28%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
25	1	PAOK	9	11-12	54%	23%	4.7%	25%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	Rangers	9	9-14	48%	20%	3.9%	22%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
27	1	Ferencvaros	8	9-11	43%	16%	2.6%	15%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Brann	8	9-13	39%	15%	2.5%	15%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Utrecht	8	7-11	39%	14%	2.7%	19%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	Sturm Graz	8	6-10	39%	14%	2.3%	15%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Salzburg	8	9-14	37%	12%	1.6%	15%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	1	M Tel Aviv	8	8-15	35%	11%	1.8%	13%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Malmoe	7	8-11	32%	10%	1.4%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Basel	7	10-15	29%	9%	1.2%	10%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Young Boys	6	13-21	18%	4.3%	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Go Ahead Eagles	5	11-18	13%	2.9%	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	11-9	13	14-10	17	14-6
5%	10	9-10	13	13-12	16	18-9
25%	10	6-14	12	13-10	16	13-10
50%	9	10-12	12	10-10	15	17-12
75%	9	11-17	11	12-9	14	19-10
95%	8	12-16	11	8-9	14	14-12
99%	8	12-20	10	13-11	13	12-7

 

Europa and Conference League - Predictions

 

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	0	Aston Villa	17	16-6	98.9%	94%	77%	95%	72%	50%	34%	21%
2	0	Lyon	16	21-15	97.2%	89%	64%	88%	55%	31%	16%	8%
3	0	Roma	16	14-9	96.7%	87%	62%	90%	65%	43%	28%	16%
4	0	Lille	16	17-13	97.1%	87%	62%	89%	60%	37%	21%	12%
5	0	Forest	15	21-9	96.5%	86%	60%	87%	59%	36%	21%	11%
6	0	Bologna	14	20-9	94%	80%	49%	81%	48%	26%	13%	6%
7	0	Porto	14	11-7	91%	74%	42%	75%	42%	21%	9%	4.0%
8	0	Betis	14	12-12	89%	70%	39%	73%	41%	21%	10%	4.5%
9	0	Stuttgart	13	17-9	90%	71%	38%	71%	38%	19%	8%	3.6%
10	0	Feyenoord	13	14-9	89%	68%	35%	71%	40%	20%	9%	4.3%
11	0	Fenerbahce	13	13-10	86%	65%	33%	65%	31%	13%	4.9%	1.9%
12	0	Nice	12	14-13	80%	54%	23%	57%	27%	12%	4.6%	1.9%
13	0	Celta	12	14-13	79%	53%	24%	55%	25%	11%	4.0%	1.5%
14	0	Genk	12	13-12	79%	53%	22%	51%	20%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
15	0	Freiburg	12	10-10	79%	52%	20%	52%	22%	8%	2.8%	1.0%
16	0	Braga	11	17-14	75%	48%	19%	50%	22%	9%	2.9%	1.0%
17	0	Midtjylland	11	13-12	73%	45%	16%	44%	17%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
18	0	Celtic	11	11-14	68%	39%	14%	43%	18%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
19	0	Rangers	10	15-16	63%	34%	11%	32%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
20	0	PAOK	10	10-11	62%	33%	10%	32%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
21	0	Panathinaikos	10	14-16	61%	32%	10%	28%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
22	0	Crvena Zvezda	10	11-13	61%	32%	10%	32%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
23	0	Viktoria Plzen	10	12-15	59%	31%	10%	30%	9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	Malmoe	9	9-10	52%	24%	6%	21%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	0	Utrecht	9	9-11	51%	24%	7%	27%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	Salzburg	9	11-14	50%	21%	5%	22%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Ferencvaros	9	6-10	48%	21%	4.9%	18%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Sturm Graz	9	13-18	48%	21%	5%	20%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Dinamo Zagreb	8	6-6	43%	18%	4.4%	17%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	Brann	8	8-10	42%	17%	3.9%	17%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Razgrad	8	10-16	37%	15%	3.3%	12%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Young Boys	8	7-14	35%	13%	2.5%	12%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Basel	8	13-21	35%	13%	2.6%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Steaua	8	13-22	34%	13%	2.8%	10%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	M Tel Aviv	8	7-16	34%	12%	2.4%	13%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Go Ahead Eagles	7	7-13	28%	9%	1.7%	9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-12	13	13-9	17	15-9
5%	10	12-13	13	12-11	16	15-7
25%	10	13-19	12	14-11	15	25-15
50%	9	9-10	12	10-10	15	16-12
75%	9	12-17	11	15-12	14	16-9
95%	8	11-14	11	10-11	14	13-12
99%	8	9-15	10	14-11	13	15-11

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	0	Crystal Palace	15	11-8	99.8%	97.8%	85%	99.0%	89%	74%	59%	42%
2	0	Rayo Vallecano	13	17-7	99.1%	94%	73%	95%	67%	39%	19%	8%
3	0	Strasbourg	13	15-8	98.6%	92%	68%	94%	70%	45%	25%	11%
4	0	Fiorentina	13	13-7	98.4%	91%	66%	95%	75%	53%	33%	17%
5	0	Shakhtar	13	13-7	98.0%	90%	65%	88%	47%	18%	6%	1.5%
6	0	Mainz	12	13-7	96.7%	85%	54%	90%	64%	39%	20%	9%
7	0	Alkmaar	12	11-6	97.0%	85%	52%	87%	55%	28%	12%	4.4%
8	0	Sparta Praha	11	12-7	94%	77%	43%	79%	42%	18%	6%	1.9%
9	0	AEK	10	13-8	91%	70%	33%	74%	38%	16%	5%	1.6%
10	0	Rakow	10	9-6	88%	65%	30%	67%	30%	11%	3.0%	< 1%
11	0	Legia	10	13-11	89%	64%	28%	63%	25%	7%	1.7%	< 1%
12	0	Lech	10	10-10	87%	60%	24%	62%	25%	8%	2.1%	< 1%
13	0	Jagiellonia	9	15-10	87%	58%	20%	59%	23%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
14	0	Celje	9	12-11	80%	52%	20%	50%	16%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	0	Lausanne	9	10-11	78%	48%	16%	44%	12%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
16	0	Rijeka	8	13-9	75%	44%	15%	40%	10%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
17	0	Samsunspor	8	12-8	76%	43%	13%	43%	13%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
18	0	Larnaca	8	15-12	75%	42%	12%	43%	14%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
19	0	Omonia	8	12-11	72%	43%	14%	45%	15%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
20	0	Dynamo Kyiv	8	8-8	72%	38%	10%	44%	16%	4.8%	1.1%	< 1%
21	0	Sigma Olomouc	7	11-9	65%	33%	9%	29%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	0	Rapid Wien	7	12-12	63%	32%	9%	36%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
23	0	Craiova	7	8-8	62%	31%	8%	36%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	Haecken	7	8-9	60%	29%	8%	30%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
25	0	Shamrock	7	9-11	59%	27%	6%	23%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	Slovan Bratislava	7	9-18	50%	21%	4.4%	21%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Kuopio	6	7-9	46%	17%	2.9%	13%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Zrinjski Mostar	6	7-12	40%	13%	1.8%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Noah	6	7-14	39%	14%	2.5%	11%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	Shelbourne	5	8-10	33%	10%	1.3%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Drita	5	9-15	29%	9%	1.2%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Shkendija	5	5-11	29%	8%	1.1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Breidablik	4	8-12	23%	6%	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Aberdeen	4	10-15	23%	6%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Hamrun	4	6-13	18%	4.1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Lincoln	3	4-16	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	8-10	10	10-6	13	16-6
5%	7	13-13	10	8-6	13	10-3
25%	7	10-13	9	14-7	12	13-3
50%	7	13-19	9	6-4	12	11-6
75%	6	7-8	9	6-7	11	17-6
95%	6	9-15	8	9-8	11	9-6
99%	5	10-12	8	11-13	10	14-9