Premier League: Sunderland most positive surprise

 

Hot Teams
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected
Man City: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
15	Liverpool	79.4	+39	< 1%	99.90%	99.77%	99.46%	98.6%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	99.44%
13	Arsenal	76.4	+41	< 1%	99.65%	99.25%	98.4%	96.5%	35%	< 1%	1.1%	98.4%
10	Man City	66.9	+29	< 1%	92%	88%	81%	70%	5.0%	3.6%	11%	81%
8	Chelsea	62.3	+19	< 1%	79%	71%	59%	43%	1.4%	8%	18%	59%
12	Crystal Palace	60.5	+12	< 1%	70%	60%	47%	32%	< 1%	4.8%	35%	45%
6	Newcastle	55.9	+8	< 1%	46%	35%	24%	14%	< 1%	13%	20%	23%
11	Bournemouth	55.7	+2	< 1%	43%	33%	22%	13%	< 1%	9%	19%	21%
8	Brighton	53.7	+2	1.7%	33%	24%	15%	8%	< 1%	10%	15%	14%
6	Aston Villa	52.8	+2	2.2%	29%	20%	12%	6%	< 1%	6%	13%	30%
11	Tottenham	52.7	+3	2.1%	28%	20%	12%	6%	< 1%	9%	14%	12%
8	Everton	51.1	-1	3.5%	21%	14%	8%	4.2%	< 1%	7%	12%	8%
7	Man United	50.7	-5	4.1%	19%	13%	7%	3.6%	< 1%	6%	11%	7%
7	Brentford	49.0	-6	6%	14%	9%	4.8%	2.2%	< 1%	9%	10%	4.4%
8	Fulham	48.5	-7	7%	12%	8%	4.2%	1.9%	< 1%	8%	7%	3.9%
5	Forest	46.5	-10	12%	8%	4.8%	2.5%	1.1%	< 1%	2.9%	5%	13%
8	Leeds	43.9	-17	21%	3.5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	6%	< 1%
4	West Ham	40.3	-22	39%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Burnley	38.8	-23	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%
1	Wolves	35.6	-26	67%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	4.7%	< 1%
11	Sunderland	32.8	-39	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Liverpool	57%	27%	26%	18%
Arsenal	35%	14%	24%	16%
Man City	5.0%	9%	16%	8%
Chelsea	1.4%	4.2%	10%	4.8%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.1%	2.8%	42%
Newcastle	< 1%	3.3%	7%	1.3%
Bournemouth	< 1%	2.8%
Brighton	< 1%	1.2%	2.0%
Aston Villa	< 1%	4.3%		21%
Tottenham	< 1%	1.4%	1.9%	< 1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Man United	< 1%	1.4%
Brentford	< 1%	3.4%	5%
Fulham	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%
Forest	< 1%	2.0%		11%
Leeds	< 1%	3.8%
West Ham	< 1%	< 1%
Burnley		3.0%
Wolves		4.6%	1.1%
Sunderland		< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	86%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	55%
League cup winners	>99.99%	79%	72%
Sixth team	98.8%	94%	3.3%
Seventh team	88%	58%	3.1%
Eighth team	55%	12%	3.1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Bournemouth	54%	22%	24%	Fulham
Leeds	42%	24%	34%	Tottenham
Arsenal	76%	15%	10%	West Ham
Man United	73%	16%	11%	Sunderland
Chelsea	39%	24%	37%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	63%	20%	17%	Burnley
Everton	44%	24%	32%	Crystal Palace
Newcastle	57%	22%	22%	Forest
Wolves	37%	24%	39%	Brighton
Brentford	33%	24%	42%	Man City

Most likely combo of teams in CL

9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
3.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
3.2%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.2%	Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.2%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.0%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
1.8%	Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

19%	Burnley, Sunderland, Wolves
15%	Sunderland, West Ham, Wolves
8%	Burnley, Sunderland, West Ham
7%	Leeds, Sunderland, Wolves
3.6%	Forest, Sunderland, Wolves
3.6%	Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland
3.4%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
2.7%	Leeds, Sunderland, West Ham
2.2%	Fulham, Sunderland, Wolves
2.2%	Burnley, Forest, Sunderland