Champions League: Matchweek 2

After two matches Bilbao and Benfica are standing out to be in trouble with zero points so far. In most simulations 8-10 points are sufficient to advance to the knockout stage. Number of points required to finish top-8 and get a bye in the first round fluctuates more with 13 points in some simulation and up to 17 in others.

 Clinching Scenarios

• Arsenal clinch knockout stage if they win against Atletico and Marseille win against Sporting (15%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Arsenal	18	22-7	99.94%	98.8%	88%	97.7%	71%	47%	29%	16%
2	6	Paris SG	17	14-4	99.48%	95.3%	76%	94%	66%	41%	24%	13%
3	6	Real Madrid	16	19-9	99.22%	93%	70%	91%	58%	33%	17%	9%
4	6	Inter	16	15-5	99.59%	94%	69%	91%	55%	29%	14%	7%
5	6	Bayern	16	19-11	99.16%	93%	67%	90%	55%	30%	15%	7%
6	3	Liverpool	15	20-11	98.1%	88%	57%	90%	65%	44%	28%	17%
7	4	Man City	15	14-7	97.4%	86%	53%	85%	52%	29%	15%	7%
8	3	Barcelona	15	18-12	97.4%	86%	53%	86%	54%	30%	16%	8%
9	3	Chelsea	15	15-13	96.9%	83%	46%	81%	46%	24%	11%	5%
10	4	Dortmund	13	15-12	90%	65%	27%	60%	24%	8%	2.8%	< 1%
11	3	Napoli	13	12-10	90%	66%	27%	63%	28%	11%	4.0%	1.5%
12	4	Tottenham	13	16-17	88%	61%	22%	55%	19%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
13	3	Atletico	12	16-12	85%	56%	19%	56%	23%	9%	3.0%	1.1%
14	3	Newcastle	12	15-11	85%	57%	20%	59%	27%	11%	4.3%	1.7%
15	3	Atalanta	12	15-14	83%	54%	19%	54%	22%	8%	2.8%	1.0%
16	2	Juventus	12	12-13	80%	49%	14%	49%	18%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
17	3	Brugge	10	17-11	74%	38%	9%	36%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
18	1	Villarreal	10	14-11	68%	34%	7%	36%	12%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
19	3	Sporting	10	16-14	70%	36%	9%	38%	13%	4.1%	1.2%	< 1%
20	2	Leverkusen	10	9-9	63%	30%	7%	37%	14%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
21	3	Frankfurt	10	12-13	65%	31%	7%	32%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Marseille	10	11-14	59%	27%	6%	27%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
23	1	Monaco	10	11-14	59%	26%	5.0%	28%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Galatasaray	10	10-13	64%	30%	7%	26%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	St Gillis	10	8-16	54%	22%	4.3%	23%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Karabakh Agdam	9	9-10	52%	17%	2.4%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Bilbao	9	9-15	45%	16%	2.2%	23%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Benfica	8	14-16	42%	15%	2.2%	22%	8%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Olympiakos	8	11-14	41%	13%	1.6%	14%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	PSV	8	10-15	36%	11%	1.5%	17%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	FC Kobenhavn	8	10-18	31%	8%	< 1%	9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	2	Bodoe Glimt	7	12-15	29%	8%	< 1%	8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	Slavia Praha	7	9-18	22%	5%	< 1%	7%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Ajax	7	7-16	23%	6%	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Paphos	6	8-15	16%	2.8%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Kairat	2	7-25	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	18-15	13	15-10	17	16-9
5%	10	15-16	13	13-11	16	19-10
25%	10	9-15	12	17-13	16	14-11
50%	9	12-13	12	11-10	15	12-5
75%	9	13-18	11	20-15	15	10-10
95%	8	14-17	11	17-18	14	18-15
99%	8	9-15	11	11-19	13	13-6