Europa and Conference League

Feyernord and Nice are in trouble with two losses each. As in CL, it looks like 8-10 points will be required to finish top-24 and advance to the knockout stage.

Premier League are favourites (85%) to get the extra CL spot, followed by Italy (45%) and Poland (28%). The factors impacting that race are detailed below.

Europa League

Clinching Scenarios

• Aston Villa clinch knockout stage if they win against Go Ahead Eagles and Basel win against Lyon (7%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Aston Villa	19	26-10	99.97%	99.56%	95%	99.09%	76%	53%	36%	22%
2	6	Lille	18	16-6	99.80%	97.9%	86%	96.6%	67%	42%	24%	13%
3	6	Lyon	18	17-8	99.81%	98.0%	86%	96.0%	62%	35%	18%	9%
4	6	Porto	16	15-10	98.8%	92%	66%	88%	51%	25%	11%	5.0%
5	3	Roma	15	18-8	97.8%	89%	59%	90%	65%	44%	28%	16%
6	6	Braga	15	11-7	96.9%	84%	51%	77%	36%	14%	4.8%	1.7%
7	6	Midtjylland	15	12-11	96.5%	82%	47%	73%	30%	10%	3.1%	1.0%
8	4	Betis	14	16-11	95%	79%	44%	79%	45%	23%	11%	4.9%
9	1	Forest	13	17-12	91%	70%	30%	77%	50%	30%	17%	9%
10	1	Bologna	13	13-10	89%	67%	27%	71%	41%	22%	11%	5%
11	4	Freiburg	13	13-12	89%	65%	26%	61%	26%	10%	3.3%	1.2%
12	3	Stuttgart	13	13-12	90%	66%	27%	68%	36%	17%	7%	3.2%
13	3	Fenerbahce	13	13-13	88%	63%	26%	63%	30%	12%	4.8%	1.9%
14	6	Dinamo Zagreb	12	18-16	88%	58%	21%	44%	11%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
15	3	Celta	12	16-14	84%	57%	22%	58%	26%	11%	4.0%	1.5%
16	3	Genk	12	8-10	80%	50%	16%	49%	19%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
17	4	Viktoria Plzen	11	11-12	73%	40%	11%	37%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
18	4	Ferencvaros	11	10-14	71%	36%	8%	28%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	0	Feyenoord	11	8-12	73%	40%	9%	52%	27%	14%	7%	3.0%
20	3	Panathinaikos	10	15-16	65%	32%	7%	28%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
21	0	Nice	10	7-8	62%	30%	6%	39%	18%	7%	2.9%	1.1%
22	3	Brann	10	9-16	56%	25%	4.9%	22%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Sturm Graz	9	13-13	54%	23%	4.1%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Basel	9	9-11	52%	20%	3.3%	19%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	1	Crvena Zvezda	9	13-16	50%	20%	3.6%	23%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Razgrad	9	9-13	49%	20%	3.5%	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	1	Celtic	9	10-15	47%	18%	3.0%	26%	11%	4.0%	1.4%	< 1%
28	1	PAOK	8	9-10	44%	15%	2.1%	19%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Steaua	8	9-15	36%	12%	1.7%	10%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Young Boys	8	13-20	34%	10%	1.2%	11%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Rangers	7	9-10	34%	11%	1.4%	15%	4.3%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Salzburg	7	13-17	30%	8%	< 1%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Go Ahead Eagles	7	7-12	28%	8%	< 1%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Utrecht	7	6-13	24%	7%	< 1%	11%	3.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Malmoe	7	8-20	20%	4.7%	< 1%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	M Tel Aviv	6	8-16	15%	3.2%	< 1%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	13-12	13	15-12	17	15-8
5%	10	5-6	13	9-8	16	18-10
25%	10	9-16	12	16-14	16	9-6
50%	9	11-13	12	12-13	15	13-8
75%	9	8-13	11	15-13	14	16-8
95%	8	9-12	11	13-15	14	11-9
99%	8	7-13	10	9-7	13	14-10

Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Crystal Palace clinch knockout stage if they win against Larnaca and Lincoln win against Lech (7%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Crystal Palace	15	17-3	99.97%	99.42%	92%	99.56%	89%	75%	60%	42%
2	3	Shakhtar	14	12-5	99.56%	96.0%	77%	93%	51%	20%	6%	1.7%
3	3	Strasbourg	14	9-3	99.71%	96.6%	77%	96.6%	74%	47%	25%	12%
4	3	Rayo Vallecano	13	14-3	99.53%	95.2%	74%	95.1%	68%	39%	19%	8%
5	3	Fiorentina	13	13-6	99.17%	93%	68%	95.7%	76%	53%	33%	17%
6	3	Mainz	13	11-4	99.33%	94%	68%	94%	69%	42%	22%	10%
7	3	Sparta Praha	12	12-7	97.5%	85%	50%	84%	46%	20%	7%	2.0%
8	3	Rakow	11	10-5	95.8%	79%	39%	76%	35%	12%	3.4%	< 1%
9	3	Lech	11	10-8	95.8%	77%	35%	72%	30%	10%	2.4%	< 1%
10	3	Celje	11	8-6	94%	73%	34%	65%	22%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
11	3	Larnaca	10	9-4	94%	72%	28%	63%	21%	5%	1.0%	< 1%
12	3	Samsunspor	10	11-7	94%	71%	29%	61%	19%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%
13	0	Alkmaar	10	13-12	92%	68%	21%	76%	44%	22%	10%	3.6%
14	3	Jagiellonia	10	7-8	90%	60%	19%	60%	23%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
15	3	Lausanne	9	15-9	88%	58%	20%	50%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
16	0	AEK	9	16-15	85%	52%	13%	62%	29%	12%	4.0%	1.2%
17	0	Legia	8	11-10	76%	39%	9%	46%	16%	4.9%	1.1%	< 1%
18	0	Omonia	7	10-10	65%	31%	6%	36%	12%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
19	0	Dynamo Kyiv	7	9-9	66%	29%	4.6%	38%	13%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
20	0	Sigma Olomouc	7	6-6	64%	30%	6%	27%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	0	Rijeka	7	7-8	61%	26%	4.8%	27%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Noah	7	10-13	61%	25%	4.5%	18%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	1	Haecken	7	5-8	56%	22%	4.0%	25%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	Shamrock	7	8-13	54%	20%	2.8%	19%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	0	Rapid Wien	7	10-16	52%	20%	3.1%	27%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	Craiova	7	4-11	52%	19%	3.0%	28%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Zrinjski Mostar	6	13-12	53%	18%	2.4%	14%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Slovan Bratislava	6	8-12	43%	14%	1.7%	17%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Kuopio	5	5-9	34%	9%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Drita	5	5-10	31%	7%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	Shelbourne	5	7-13	30%	6%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Shkendija	5	2-8	28%	7%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Hamrun	4	6-13	17%	3.1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Breidablik	4	6-15	16%	2.8%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Aberdeen	4	7-17	14%	2.5%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Lincoln	2	5-14	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	3-6	10	11-7	13	16-3
5%	7	9-9	10	9-7	13	15-8
25%	7	8-11	10	3-8	13	8-5
50%	7	10-17	9	9-7	12	12-6
75%	6	8-10	9	9-10	12	10-7
95%	6	9-16	8	9-8	11	10-6
99%	5	7-10	8	9-11	10	13-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	86%	18.53	10.61	25.56
ITA	45%	16.26	7.71	25.43
POL	28%	15.58	7.63	25.13
ESP	18%	14.75	6.81	23.44
GER	13%	14.28	6.71	23.5
FRA	5%	13.54	6.56	21.94
POR	4.1%	12.71	5.8	22.9
UKR	< 1%	11	5	20
NED	< 1%	10.36	4.25	21.58
GRE	< 1%	9.18	4.1	20.2
CYP	< 1%	9.81	5	18.38
CZE	< 1%	8.93	3.2	18
DEN	< 1%	9.17	5.13	17.75
BEL	< 1%	7.92	3.3	16.7
TUR	< 1%	8.34	3.4	16.3
SWE	< 1%	7.03	4.25	15.25

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 265 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1.2%
Chance if	< 1%	2.6%	14%	41%	73%	93%	99.1%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 219 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	10%	32%	36%	18%	3.8%
Chance if	7%	23%	52%	82%	96.9%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 209 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	8%
Chance if	< 1%	2.1%	14%	40%	69%	89%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 206 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	26%	47%	23%	3.6%
Chance if	3.3%	22%	59%	90%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POL; 190 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	< 1%	10%	35%	41%	13%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	10%	37%	73%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	9%	25%	33%	22%	7%	1.2%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	11%	32%	63%	88%

Number of quarterfinalists from ENG; 166 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	1.8%	9%	23%	33%	24%	8%	1.2%
Chance if	18%	48%	78%	94%	98.9%	99.9%	>99.99%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 160 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.5%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2.2%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	16%	45%	78%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 148 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	37%	32%	13%	2.5%
Chance if	1.1%	6%	20%	48%	79%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 147 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1.7%
Chance if	16%	41%	70%	90%	98.3%	99.8%	100%