PL: Forest, Wolves and Burnley

Forest, Wolves and Burnley are off with a poor start.

Hot Teams
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Man United: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected
Man City: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Brentford: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Leeds: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
16	Arsenal	78.3	+43	< 1%	99.81%	99.57%	99.04%	97.7%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	99.06%
15	Liverpool	76.5	+35	< 1%	99.60%	99.15%	98.2%	96.0%	36%	< 1%	1.4%	98.2%
13	Man City	69.9	+32	< 1%	96.2%	93%	89%	81%	10%	2.1%	7%	89%
11	Chelsea	60.7	+15	< 1%	69%	58%	45%	30%	< 1%	10%	21%	45%
12	Crystal Palace	60.2	+12	< 1%	66%	55%	42%	27%	< 1%	4.9%	40%	40%
9	Newcastle	57.6	+10	< 1%	51%	40%	28%	17%	< 1%	13%	21%	28%
14	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	49%	38%	26%	15%	< 1%	10%	21%	25%
14	Tottenham	55.8	+6	< 1%	40%	30%	20%	11%	< 1%	11%	18%	19%
9	Aston Villa	55.4	+5	< 1%	38%	28%	18%	10%	< 1%	6%	14%	38%
9	Brighton	54.0	+3	1.0%	31%	22%	13%	7%	< 1%	10%	15%	13%
11	Everton	51.8	-1	2.0%	21%	14%	8%	3.8%	< 1%	7%	12%	7%
10	Man United	50.7	-6	3.1%	16%	10%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	6%	9%	5%
8	Fulham	48.4	-7	6%	10%	6%	3.1%	1.3%	< 1%	8%	6%	2.8%
7	Brentford	47.8	-7	6%	9%	5%	2.7%	1.1%	< 1%	8%	8%	2.4%
8	Leeds	43.2	-17	19%	2.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	6%	< 1%
5	Forest	42.5	-16	22%	2.0%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	2.3%	6%
4	West Ham	38.3	-25	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Burnley	37.4	-24	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%
2	Wolves	34.2	-28	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	4.0%	< 1%
11	Sunderland	34.2	-35	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	52%	16%	26%	19%
Liverpool	36%	23%	22%	13%
Man City	10%	11%	19%	9%
Chelsea	< 1%	2.8%	7%	2.9%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.4%	3.2%	47%
Newcastle	< 1%	3.4%	8%	1.9%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.1%
Tottenham	< 1%	1.7%	2.1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5%		26%
Brighton	< 1%	1.2%	2.1%
Everton	< 1%	2.3%
Man United	< 1%	1.3%
Fulham	< 1%	1.1%	4.5%
Brentford	< 1%	3.6%	5%
Leeds	< 1%	4.4%
Forest	< 1%	1.3%		6%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley	< 1%	2.8%
Wolves		4.0%	< 1%
Sunderland		< 1%