Europa and Conference League

Thirteen teams have secured a spot in the knockout stage or >99% chance in Europa League. Between eight and ten points will likely be required to reach the Last 24, which 15 to 17 points is expected to be required to finish top-8.

 

Europa League

Clinching Scenarios

• Freiburg clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Salzburg (86%)
• Porto clinch knockout stage if they win against Malmoe (76%)
• Ferencvaros clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Rangers (74%)
• Betis clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb (72%)
• Lille clinch knockout stage if they win against Young Boys (58%)
• Stuttgart clinch knockout stage if they win against M Tel Aviv and Midtjylland and Genk do not draw  (57%)
• Roma clinch knockout stage if they win against Celtic (51%)
• Panathinaikos clinch knockout stage if they win against Viktoria Plzen and Lyon draw (or win) against Go Ahead Eagles (39%)
• Dinamo Zagreb clinch knockout stage if they win against Betis (28%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch knockout stage if they win against Panathinaikos and Freiburg draw (or win) against Salzburg (28%)
• Braga clinch knockout stage if they win against Nice (26%)
• Forest clinch knockout stage if they win against Utrecht and Roma win against Celtic (26%)
• Genk clinch knockout stage if they win against Midtjylland (21%)
• Bologna clinch knockout stage if they win against Celta and Sturm Graz draw against Crvena Zvezda (8%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Lyon	19	17-6	100%	99.79%	95%	98.6%	62%	35%	18%	9%
2	12	Aston Villa	18	20-7	100%	99.59%	92%	98.8%	78%	58%	43%	28%
3	12	Midtjylland	18	17-9	100%	98.7%	83%	93%	47%	20%	7%	2.8%
4	11	Freiburg	17	10-4	>99.99%	96.3%	67%	87%	44%	19%	8%	3.0%
5	10	Porto	16	18-9	99.99%	96.6%	71%	91%	55%	30%	14%	7%
6	11	Betis	16	14-7	>99.99%	93%	60%	88%	53%	29%	14%	7%
7	9	Stuttgart	15	12-6	99.64%	87%	38%	79%	43%	21%	9%	4.1%
8	9	Lille	15	16-12	99.25%	83%	38%	83%	52%	31%	17%	8%
9	9	Roma	15	12-8	99.29%	83%	39%	85%	58%	36%	22%	12%
10	11	Ferencvaros	15	13-10	99.99%	85%	38%	61%	16%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
11	8	Forest	14	13-8	98.2%	72%	24%	76%	44%	24%	12%	6%
12	10	Braga	14	12-8	99.74%	77%	31%	70%	32%	14%	5%	1.9%
13	8	Bologna	14	12-9	97.2%	68%	19%	73%	41%	22%	11%	5%
14	10	Dinamo Zagreb	14	12-10	99.68%	76%	25%	53%	15%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
15	10	Genk	14	11-9	99.66%	78%	28%	61%	22%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
16	9	Viktoria Plzen	13	8-6	96.0%	55%	14%	49%	16%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%
17	9	Panathinaikos	12	14-12	95%	48%	10%	39%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Brann	12	9-7	89%	40%	7%	38%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	Fenerbahce	12	10-9	92%	46%	8%	58%	27%	12%	4.9%	2.0%
20	8	PAOK	11	11-8	86%	33%	4.5%	40%	13%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%
21	7	Crvena Zvezda	11	7-8	78%	27%	3.2%	33%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Celtic	10	12-13	74%	18%	1.6%	30%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
23	6	Celta	10	13-15	68%	18%	1.1%	38%	17%	7%	2.9%	1.1%
24	6	Basel	9	10-11	54%	9%	< 1%	17%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	6	Razgrad	9	13-18	45%	6%	< 1%	10%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Feyenoord	9	8-13	36%	1.8%	< 1%	21%	11%	5%	2.3%	< 1%
27	6	Young Boys	8	11-18	24%	2.0%	< 1%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Sturm Graz	8	8-15	27%	1.9%	< 1%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	7-15	20%	1.3%	< 1%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	0	Nice	6	9-14	9%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Salzburg	6	6-15	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Steaua	5	7-13	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	Utrecht	4	6-11	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	1	Rangers	4	9-17	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Malmoe	4	4-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	M Tel Aviv	2	4-19	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	7-8	14	9-5	17	13-5
5%	10	11-11	14	13-13	17	14-10
25%	10	13-17	13	13-11	16	13-7
50%	9	7-7	13	10-11	15	19-10
75%	9	9-12	12	10-7	15	13-7
95%	8	9-10	12	12-13	15	16-15
99%	8	7-12	11	8-6	14	10-5

Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Crystal Palace clinch knockout stage if they win against Shelbourne (85%)
• Fiorentina clinch knockout stage if they win against Dynamo Kyiv (76%)
• Sparta Praha clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Rijeka (73%)
• Alkmaar clinch knockout stage if they win against Drita (69%)
• Rayo Vallecano clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Jagiellonia (66%)
• Sigma Olomouc clinch knockout stage if they win against Lincoln (66%)
• AEK clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Samsunspor (59%)
• Jagiellonia clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Rayo Vallecano (58%)
• Lausanne clinch knockout stage if they win against Kuopio (48%)
• Craiova clinch knockout stage if they win against Sparta Praha (32%)
• Lech clinch knockout stage if they win against Mainz (31%)
• Drita clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Alkmaar (31%)
• Zrinjski Mostar clinch knockout stage if they win against Rakow (11%)
• Strasbourg clinch Top8 if they win against Aberdeen and Hamrun win against Shakhtar (8%)
• Noah clinch knockout stage if they win against Legia and Fiorentina draw against Dynamo Kyiv (4%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	10	Strasbourg	16	13-6	100%	>99.99%	98.3%	99.81%	76%	49%	30%	16%
2	9	Shakhtar	13	14-7	100%	98.9%	84%	95%	47%	18%	6%	1.6%
3	7	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	99.95%	96.4%	70%	92%	53%	25%	10%	3.4%
4	9	Celje	13	10-5	100%	98.0%	74%	90%	37%	12%	2.9%	< 1%
5	9	Mainz	13	7-4	100%	96.3%	68%	94%	63%	37%	19%	8%
6	6	Crystal Palace	12	12-4	99.93%	97.6%	68%	98.0%	86%	71%	57%	41%
7	10	Samsunspor	12	12-5	100%	99.69%	55%	82%	31%	9%	2.2%	< 1%
8	8	Larnaca	12	8-2	>99.99%	95%	53%	83%	35%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
9	8	Rakow	11	12-4	>99.99%	92%	47%	82%	36%	13%	3.7%	< 1%
10	7	Rayo Vallecano	11	11-6	99.96%	94%	40%	90%	60%	37%	19%	8%
11	7	AEK	10	14-8	99.93%	80%	26%	75%	36%	14%	4.4%	1.3%
12	6	Fiorentina	10	10-4	98.8%	83%	33%	88%	62%	40%	24%	11%
13	7	Sigma Olomouc	10	9-6	99.21%	79%	24%	55%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
14	8	Jagiellonia	10	6-4	99.98%	58%	13%	68%	29%	11%	3.4%	< 1%
15	7	Lausanne	10	8-7	98.0%	62%	12%	54%	18%	4.9%	1.0%	< 1%
16	6	Alkmaar	10	10-11	96.7%	68%	15%	76%	42%	22%	9%	3.5%
17	6	Lech	9	12-10	93%	48%	10%	54%	20%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
18	5	Omonia	8	6-5	78%	25%	1.0%	38%	13%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
19	7	Craiova	8	8-9	96.4%	43%	6%	45%	13%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-5	99.88%	22%	1.5%	17%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	3	Legia	7	10-9	76%	22%	< 1%	36%	12%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
22	6	Zrinjski Mostar	7	9-11	70%	16%	1.6%	16%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	5	Noah	6	6-7	51%	9%	< 1%	12%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Dynamo Kyiv	6	9-11	37%	3.6%	< 1%	13%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	3	Slovan Bratislava	6	7-9	45%	6%	< 1%	13%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	5	Kuopio	6	6-10	36%	2.0%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	2	Haecken	5	7-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	Rijeka	5	5-8	25%	3.4%	< 1%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Shkendija	5	5-9	34%	2.6%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Shamrock	5	5-10	25%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	Lincoln	4	5-14	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Hamrun	3	5-10	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	2	Breidablik	3	4-12	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Rapid Wien	3	5-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	Aberdeen	2	4-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	Shelbourne	1	3-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	6-9	10	11-7	13	11-5
5%	7	7-6	10	8-6	13	7-3
25%	7	8-11	10	5-7	12	15-8
50%	6	8-6	9	10-7	12	11-6
75%	6	7-8	9	8-7	12	10-9
95%	6	8-12	8	13-9	11	9-4
99%	6	10-18	8	8-8	11	7-4

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	93%	18.93	11.78	25.78
ITA	40%	15.94	8	25.57
GER	28%	15.44	9	24.57
POL	27%	15.49	9.38	24.88
ESP	8%	13.9	7.5	22.88
POR	3.6%	12.99	7.6	22.8
FRA	1.4%	12.64	7.31	20.21
CYP	< 1%	11.1	7.75	19
NED	< 1%	9.68	5.25	19.7
GRE	< 1%	10.31	5.9	19.6
UKR	< 1%	9.71	6.33	18.5
CZE	< 1%	10.29	5.8	19.5
TUR	< 1%	9.2	5.4	17.2
DEN	< 1%	9.29	6.63	16.88
BEL	< 1%	7.77	4.5	17

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 252 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.0%	12%	29%	33%	18%	4.7%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	3.7%	18%	46%	76%	93%	99%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 219 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	1.9%
Chance if	7%	24%	55%	85%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 206 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	29%	47%	21%	2.9%
Chance if	3.3%	22%	61%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 205 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	11%	28%	34%	19%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	1.2%	8%	28%	57%	82%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 191 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	30%	10%	1.6%
Chance if	3.1%	14%	40%	73%	94%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 176 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.0%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	3.1%	15%	38%	65%	85%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POL; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	< 1%	12%	41%	38%	8%
Chance if	< 1%	1.2%	13%	41%	74%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 151 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	2.8%
Chance if	13%	52%	92%

Number of finalists from ITA; 124 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	41%	14%	1.8%
Chance if	21%	45%	74%	94%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from GER; 111 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	4.3%	21%	43%	30%	2.1%
Chance if	1.4%	8%	23%	48%	76%

 

CL: Matchday 5

Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Real, and Inter have secured a spot in the knockout stage. Man City, Chelsea, Dortmund, Atalanta, and Sporting only need another point to secure a spot and advance to the knockout stage in more than 99.8% of the simulations. Liverpool, Atletico, Tottenham, Newcastle, Leverkusen, Galatasaray, and PSV only need another win to secure a spot and most of them are likely to do so already in the next match, as detailed below. To finish top-8 and get a bye in the playoff round, will most likely require between 14 and 17 points, so Arsenal can secure a bye with a win against Brugge in the next match.

Clinching Scenarios

• Dortmund clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bodoe Glimt (86%)
• Tottenham clinch knockout stage if they win against Slavia Praha (66%)
• Chelsea clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Atalanta (61%)
• Arsenal clinch Top8 if they win against Brugge (59%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Real Madrid (53%)
• PSV clinch knockout stage if they win against Atletico (41%)
• Atalanta clinch knockout stage if they win against Chelsea (39%)
• Atletico clinch knockout stage if they win against PSV (35%)
• Newcastle clinch knockout stage if they win against Leverkusen (33%)
• Sporting clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bayern (33%)
• Liverpool clinch knockout stage if they win against Inter (32%)
• Galatasaray clinch knockout stage if they win against Monaco (26%)
• Barcelona clinch knockout stage if they win against Frankfurt and Paphos draw (or win) against Juventus (17%)
• Leverkusen clinch knockout stage if they win against Newcastle and Ajax win against Karabakh Agdam (15%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Arsenal	21	23-3	100%	100%	99.96%	>99.99%	78%	55%	37%	22%
2	12	Bayern	18	23-9	100%	99.77%	93%	98.6%	67%	40%	22%	11%
3	12	Paris SG	18	26-14	100%	99.56%	88%	97.8%	69%	43%	25%	14%
4	12	Real Madrid	18	20-12	100%	99.35%	84%	96.4%	63%	35%	18%	9%
5	12	Inter	16	17-8	100%	98.1%	68%	92%	55%	28%	13%	6%
6	10	Man City	16	17-11	>99.99%	95%	57%	91%	59%	34%	19%	10%
7	10	Chelsea	16	18-14	>99.99%	95.2%	53%	85%	46%	20%	9%	3.7%
8	9	Liverpool	15	16-12	99.78%	89%	36%	86%	54%	31%	18%	9%
9	10	Dortmund	14	27-17	>99.99%	91%	46%	79%	34%	13%	4.4%	1.6%
10	7	Barcelona	14	18-13	98.8%	82%	28%	79%	43%	22%	10%	4.7%
11	9	Atletico	14	17-13	99.45%	80%	26%	71%	31%	12%	4.5%	1.7%
12	10	Atalanta	14	13-10	99.80%	85%	35%	70%	26%	8%	2.4%	< 1%
13	8	Tottenham	13	18-11	97.6%	70%	18%	62%	23%	8%	2.6%	< 1%
14	9	Newcastle	13	16-10	99.27%	72%	20%	71%	32%	14%	6%	2.3%
15	10	Sporting	13	13-9	99.94%	66%	16%	58%	19%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
16	8	Leverkusen	13	14-15	95%	58%	12%	57%	21%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
17	6	Juventus	12	15-15	90%	40%	2.9%	42%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
18	9	Galatasaray	12	11-13	93%	39%	4.8%	37%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	PSV	11	15-10	92%	41%	6%	45%	13%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
20	7	Napoli	11	10-12	86%	36%	4.2%	46%	16%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
21	6	Monaco	10	9-12	70%	15%	< 1%	26%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Karabakh Agdam	10	10-14	67%	13%	< 1%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	6	Marseille	9	13-12	64%	15%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	Brugge	9	12-16	52%	6%	< 1%	18%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
25	6	St Gillis	9	10-17	54%	8%	< 1%	17%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	4	Frankfurt	8	12-23	27%	2.1%	< 1%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	6	Paphos	7	7-12	27%	1.7%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Benfica	7	5-10	22%	1.4%	< 1%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Bilbao	7	8-14	23%	1.9%	< 1%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Villarreal	7	6-13	12%	< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Olympiakos	6	8-14	14%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Slavia Praha	6	6-14	11%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	4	FC Kobenhavn	5	9-18	7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	2	Bodoe Glimt	3	12-19	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Ajax	3	6-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	Kairat	2	7-28	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	14-14	13	22-12	17	16-9
5%	10	11-14	13	12-7	16	18-7
25%	10	8-19	13	16-17	16	18-11
50%	9	9-12	12	17-13	16	12-11
75%	9	11-19	12	15-15	15	15-8
95%	8	8-13	11	14-11	14	17-9
99%	7	13-13	11	9-10	14	15-10