CL: Matchday 5

Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Real, and Inter have secured a spot in the knockout stage. Man City, Chelsea, Dortmund, Atalanta, and Sporting only need another point to secure a spot and advance to the knockout stage in more than 99.8% of the simulations. Liverpool, Atletico, Tottenham, Newcastle, Leverkusen, Galatasaray, and PSV only need another win to secure a spot and most of them are likely to do so already in the next match, as detailed below. To finish top-8 and get a bye in the playoff round, will most likely require between 14 and 17 points, so Arsenal can secure a bye with a win against Brugge in the next match.

Clinching Scenarios

• Dortmund clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bodoe Glimt (86%)
• Tottenham clinch knockout stage if they win against Slavia Praha (66%)
• Chelsea clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Atalanta (61%)
• Arsenal clinch Top8 if they win against Brugge (59%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Real Madrid (53%)
• PSV clinch knockout stage if they win against Atletico (41%)
• Atalanta clinch knockout stage if they win against Chelsea (39%)
• Atletico clinch knockout stage if they win against PSV (35%)
• Newcastle clinch knockout stage if they win against Leverkusen (33%)
• Sporting clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bayern (33%)
• Liverpool clinch knockout stage if they win against Inter (32%)
• Galatasaray clinch knockout stage if they win against Monaco (26%)
• Barcelona clinch knockout stage if they win against Frankfurt and Paphos draw (or win) against Juventus (17%)
• Leverkusen clinch knockout stage if they win against Newcastle and Ajax win against Karabakh Agdam (15%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Arsenal	21	23-3	100%	100%	99.96%	>99.99%	78%	55%	37%	22%
2	12	Bayern	18	23-9	100%	99.77%	93%	98.6%	67%	40%	22%	11%
3	12	Paris SG	18	26-14	100%	99.56%	88%	97.8%	69%	43%	25%	14%
4	12	Real Madrid	18	20-12	100%	99.35%	84%	96.4%	63%	35%	18%	9%
5	12	Inter	16	17-8	100%	98.1%	68%	92%	55%	28%	13%	6%
6	10	Man City	16	17-11	>99.99%	95%	57%	91%	59%	34%	19%	10%
7	10	Chelsea	16	18-14	>99.99%	95.2%	53%	85%	46%	20%	9%	3.7%
8	9	Liverpool	15	16-12	99.78%	89%	36%	86%	54%	31%	18%	9%
9	10	Dortmund	14	27-17	>99.99%	91%	46%	79%	34%	13%	4.4%	1.6%
10	7	Barcelona	14	18-13	98.8%	82%	28%	79%	43%	22%	10%	4.7%
11	9	Atletico	14	17-13	99.45%	80%	26%	71%	31%	12%	4.5%	1.7%
12	10	Atalanta	14	13-10	99.80%	85%	35%	70%	26%	8%	2.4%	< 1%
13	8	Tottenham	13	18-11	97.6%	70%	18%	62%	23%	8%	2.6%	< 1%
14	9	Newcastle	13	16-10	99.27%	72%	20%	71%	32%	14%	6%	2.3%
15	10	Sporting	13	13-9	99.94%	66%	16%	58%	19%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
16	8	Leverkusen	13	14-15	95%	58%	12%	57%	21%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
17	6	Juventus	12	15-15	90%	40%	2.9%	42%	12%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
18	9	Galatasaray	12	11-13	93%	39%	4.8%	37%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	PSV	11	15-10	92%	41%	6%	45%	13%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
20	7	Napoli	11	10-12	86%	36%	4.2%	46%	16%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
21	6	Monaco	10	9-12	70%	15%	< 1%	26%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Karabakh Agdam	10	10-14	67%	13%	< 1%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	6	Marseille	9	13-12	64%	15%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	Brugge	9	12-16	52%	6%	< 1%	18%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
25	6	St Gillis	9	10-17	54%	8%	< 1%	17%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	4	Frankfurt	8	12-23	27%	2.1%	< 1%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	6	Paphos	7	7-12	27%	1.7%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Benfica	7	5-10	22%	1.4%	< 1%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Bilbao	7	8-14	23%	1.9%	< 1%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Villarreal	7	6-13	12%	< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Olympiakos	6	8-14	14%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Slavia Praha	6	6-14	11%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	4	FC Kobenhavn	5	9-18	7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	2	Bodoe Glimt	3	12-19	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Ajax	3	6-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	Kairat	2	7-28	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	14-14	13	22-12	17	16-9
5%	10	11-14	13	12-7	16	18-7
25%	10	8-19	13	16-17	16	18-11
50%	9	9-12	12	17-13	16	12-11
75%	9	11-19	12	15-15	15	15-8
95%	8	8-13	11	14-11	14	17-9
99%	7	13-13	11	9-10	14	15-10