PL: Arsenal the team to chase

Arsenal win the league in 83% of the simulations and on average finish 10.6 points ahead of Man City. The coming weekend Everton host Newcastle in a key match for the qualifications to the European competitions.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
29	Arsenal	81.8	+46	< 1%	99.98%	99.94%	99.85%	99.57%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	99.83%
22	Man City	71.2	+36	< 1%	97.8%	96.0%	93%	87%	11%	1.1%	6%	92%
18	Liverpool	68.0	+21	< 1%	93%	89%	83%	72%	3.9%	2.2%	12%	82%
23	Chelsea	64.1	+20	< 1%	82%	74%	63%	48%	1.5%	8%	20%	62%
21	Aston Villa	61.3	+11	< 1%	67%	56%	43%	29%	< 1%	6%	17%	59%
20	Crystal Palace	57.7	+9	< 1%	46%	35%	24%	14%	< 1%	7%	13%	55%
19	Bournemouth	57.1	+2	< 1%	41%	31%	20%	12%	< 1%	10%	22%	20%
15	Newcastle	56.8	+7	< 1%	41%	30%	20%	11%	< 1%	16%	25%	20%
19	Brighton	56.1	+5	< 1%	36%	26%	16%	9%	< 1%	10%	20%	16%
18	Man United	55.1	+2	< 1%	30%	21%	13%	7%	< 1%	9%	18%	13%
18	Tottenham	54.8	+7	< 1%	30%	21%	13%	7%	< 1%	9%	19%	13%
16	Brentford	52.4	+0	1.1%	17%	11%	6%	2.9%	< 1%	10%	13%	6%
18	Everton	50.9	-5	1.9%	12%	7%	4.0%	1.8%	< 1%	6%	9%	3.9%
14	Fulham	46.1	-10	9%	3.2%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	3.7%	< 1%
12	Forest	42.3	-16	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	6%
19	Sunderland	39.9	-24	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Leeds	39.3	-24	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Burnley	38.9	-22	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	West Ham	37.7	-26	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	27.1	-39	95.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	83%	26%	37%	22%
Man City	11%	15%	24%	11%
Liverpool	3.9%	15%		11%
Chelsea	1.5%	7%	18%	3.0%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5%		28%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.6%	3.4%	41%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.8%
Newcastle	< 1%	6%	12%	2.7%
Brighton	< 1%	3.1%
Man United	< 1%	3.0%
Tottenham	< 1%	3.0%		< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.7%	2.9%
Everton	< 1%	1.8%
Fulham	< 1%	1.4%	2.0%
Forest		1.0%		6%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Newcastle (2%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Newcastle	14%	18%	26%
Everton	6%	3.2%	2.2

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Everton vs Newcastle (2.5%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Newcastle	38%	43%	53%
Everton	18%	12%	9%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Everton vs Newcastle (2.5%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Everton	25%	17%	13%
Newcastle	54%	60%	68%