PL: Some hope for West Ham

Some hope for West Ham after decreasing the gap with two points to Forest, while the three top teams all lost points.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Wolves: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected
Man United: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
50	Arsenal	84.2	+47	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
43	Man City	73.9	+38	< 1%	99.96%	99.86%	99.53%	98.2%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.55%
43	Aston Villa	71.0	+18	< 1%	99.61%	99.0%	97.3%	93%	1.9%	< 1%	1.6%	98.2%
36	Liverpool	64.7	+15	< 1%	94%	89%	79%	61%	< 1%	2.7%	14%	80%
34	Chelsea	59.5	+17	< 1%	75%	62%	44%	20%	< 1%	9%	31%	45%
35	Man United	57.2	+6	< 1%	54%	40%	24%	9%	< 1%	13%	29%	23%
33	Newcastle	56.4	+7	< 1%	49%	35%	20%	7%	< 1%	13%	29%	20%
33	Brentford	55.2	+6	< 1%	39%	25%	13%	4.6%	< 1%	13%	27%	13%
32	Everton	53.5	-2	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	12%	17%	7%
30	Brighton	52.7	+4	< 1%	23%	14%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	11%	16%	6%
31	Fulham	52.1	-3	< 1%	17%	10%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%	9%	14%	4.1%
28	Crystal Palace	49.2	-5	< 1%	7%	3.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	39%	1.3%
33	Sunderland	48.5	-12	< 1%	4.7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	3.9%	< 1%
27	Tottenham	48.5	+1	< 1%	7%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%	4.9%	2.0%
27	Bournemouth	48.1	-8	1.4%	4.8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	3.7%	< 1%
25	Leeds	43.9	-12	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
22	Forest	41.6	-17	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%
17	West Ham	34.1	-29	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Burnley	30.2	-29	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	21.7	-41	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	91%	36%	52%	26%
Man City	7%	24%	44%	14%
Aston Villa	1.9%	8%		36%
Liverpool	< 1%	11%		7%
Chelsea	< 1%	7%	3.1%	2.5%
Man United	< 1%
Newcastle	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	1.5%
Brentford	< 1%	3.9%
Everton	< 1%
Brighton		1.3%
Fulham		2.2%
Crystal Palace				37%
Sunderland		< 1%
Tottenham				< 1%
Leeds		1.2%
Forest				6%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Man United (1.6%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Arsenal	93%	87%	84%
Man City	6%	10%	13%
Aston Villa	1.5%	2.7%	3.6%

Important matches for CL race
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea (3.4%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
Chelsea	36%	43%	56%
Crystal Palace	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle vs Aston Villa (2.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Newcastle	27%	18%	13%
Aston Villa	97.2%	98.3%	99.3%

 

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Fulham vs Brighton (4.2%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Brighton	16%	22%	33%
Fulham	25%	15%	11%
Newcastle vs Aston Villa (2.9%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Newcastle	59%	46%	39%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Sunderland (2.7%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
West Ham	24%	15%	11%
Forest	83%	87%	89%
Sunderland	98.6%	99.5%	99.89%
Leeds	92%	94%	95.1%