Arsenal now >90% chance on the title and on average they win the league with more than 10 points. The CL battle is starting to become a three-horse race between Liverpool, Chelsea, and Man United. Next week we have important matches in the race for European competitions where Fulham play Everton and Newcastle play Brentford.
Hot Teams
Man United: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Brentford: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Cold Teams
Tottenham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Aston Villa: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Liverpool: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
|
| Average Simulated
Season | Probabilities |
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 53 | Arsenal | 82.5 | +46 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.99% | 92% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 47 | Man City | 71.6 | +34 | < 1% | 99.87% | 99.51% | 98.2% | 94% | 5% | < 1% | 1.5% | 98.3% |
| 46 | Aston Villa | 70.8 | +18 | < 1% | 99.72% | 99.04% | 96.5% | 90% | 2.5% | < 1% | 1.9% | 97.9% |
| 39 | Liverpool | 63.8 | +15 | < 1% | 93% | 85% | 68% | 44% | < 1% | 3.6% | 22% | 71% |
| 40 | Chelsea | 62.8 | +20 | < 1% | 91% | 82% | 63% | 38% | < 1% | 4.6% | 26% | 65% |
| 41 | Man United | 62.0 | +11 | < 1% | 85% | 73% | 51% | 28% | < 1% | 8% | 33% | 51% |
| 36 | Brentford | 55.2 | +5 | < 1% | 36% | 19% | 8% | 2.6% | < 1% | 16% | 29% | 8% |
| 33 | Newcastle | 54.3 | +3 | < 1% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 1.7% | < 1% | 16% | 24% | 8% |
| 34 | Fulham | 53.0 | -2 | < 1% | 19% | 8% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 17% | 3.0% |
| 34 | Everton | 52.2 | -3 | < 1% | 15% | 7% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 12% | 2.4% |
| 33 | Bournemouth | 52.0 | -4 | < 1% | 14% | 6% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 11% | 2.0% |
| 31 | Brighton | 50.5 | +2 | < 1% | 10% | 4.2% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 10% | 1.4% |
| 29 | Tottenham | 47.5 | +0 | 1.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| 33 | Sunderland | 47.5 | -13 | 1.4% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | < 1% |
| 29 | Crystal Palace | 46.5 | -8 | 2.3% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.4% | 34% | < 1% |
| 26 | Forest | 43.7 | -14 | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6% |
| 26 | Leeds | 43.7 | -14 | 8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.9% | < 1% |
| 20 | West Ham | 34.5 | -27 | 84% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| 15 | Burnley | 30.1 | -29 | 95.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 8 | Wolves | 20.9 | -41 | 99.96% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | League | FA Cup | League Cup | Europe |
|
|
|
| Arsenal | 92% | 37% | 55% | 30% |
| Man City | 5% | 18% | 39% | 9% |
| Aston Villa | 2.5% | 10% |
| 40% |
| Liverpool | < 1% | 11% |
| 9% |
| Chelsea | < 1% | 9% | 4.4% | 6% |
| Man United | < 1% |
|
|
|
| Brentford | < 1% | 4.1% |
|
|
| Newcastle |
| 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% |
| Fulham | < 1% | 2.9% |
|
|
| Everton | < 1% |
|
|
|
| Brighton |
| 1.5% |
|
|
| Tottenham |
|
|
| 1.7% |
| Sunderland |
| < 1% |
|
|
| Crystal Palace |
|
|
| 33% |
| Forest |
|
|
| 6% |
| Leeds |
| 1.6% |
|
|
| West Ham |
| 1.1% |
|
|
| Burnley |
| < 1% |
|
|
| Wolves |
| < 1% |
|
|
Important matches for title race
|
| Arsenal vs Sunderland (1.2%) | Home Win (83%) | Draw (11%) | Away Win (6%) |
| Arsenal | 93% | 88% | 84% |
| Man City | 4.5% | 8% | 10% |
| Aston Villa | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5% |
Important matches for CL race
|
| Man United vs Tottenham (3.2%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Man United | 59% | 45% | 38% |
| Chelsea | 63% | 67% | 69% |
| Liverpool | 69% | 72% | 74% |
| Wolves vs Chelsea (3%) | Home Win (24%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (54%) |
| Chelsea | 53% | 60% | 73% |
| Man United | 55% | 53% | 48% |
| Liverpool | 74% | 72% | 69% |
Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
|
| Newcastle vs Brentford (5.3%) | Home Win (55%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Brentford | 30% | 39% | 53% |
| Newcastle | 39% | 26% | 20% |
| Fulham vs Everton (4.3%) | Home Win (49%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (27%) |
| Everton | 9% | 14% | 24% |
| Fulham | 27% | 16% | 12% |
Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
|
| Fulham vs Everton (6.1%) | Home Win (49%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (27%) |
| Everton | 18% | 25% | 39% |
| Fulham | 42% | 28% | 21% |
| Newcastle vs Brentford (6%) | Home Win (55%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Newcastle | 56% | 41% | 33% |
| Brentford | 46% | 55% | 70% |
Important matches for avoiding relegation
|
| Burnley vs West Ham (3.6%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| West Ham | 11% | 15% | 25% |
| Burnley | 7% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Leeds | 93% | 93% | 90% |
| Forest | 94% | 94% | 91% |
| Leeds vs Forest (2.6%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Leeds | 95.9% | 91% | 87% |
| Forest | 90% | 93% | 97.1% |
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