Europa and Conference League

Updated probabilities below. Behind England, Poland (36%), Germany (26%), Portugal (18%), and Spain (15%) are favorites to get an extra CL.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	60%	33%	18%	7%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	84%	68%	54%	39%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	52%	23%	7%	2.5%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	59%	31%	12%	4.6%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	73%	45%	21%	10%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	59%	28%	9%	3.2%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	59%	19%	8%	3.0%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	75%	36%	22%	11%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	24%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	42%	14%	6%	2.2%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	51%	24%	10%	4.3%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	17%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	64%	37%	17%	8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	29%	13%	6%	2.1%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	25%	7%	1.1%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	27%	13%	6%	2.2%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Ferencvaros (100%)
		Porto (44%) Braga (39%) Ferencvaros (17%)
Porto (50%) Braga (50%)
				Porto (30%) Betis (21%) Braga (21%) Midtjylland (17%)
Panathinaikos (100%)
		Betis (39%) Midtjylland (36%) Panathinaikos (25%)
Betis (50%) Midtjylland (50%)
						Aston Villa (28%) Porto (14%) Roma (13%) Lyon (10%)
Genk (100%)
		Roma (41%) Freiburg (34%) Genk (24%)
Freiburg (50%) Roma (50%)
				Aston Villa (34%) Roma (20%) Lyon (17%) Celta (13%)
Celta (100%)
		Aston Villa (42%) Lyon (30%) Celta (27%)
Aston Villa (50%) Lyon (50%)
								Aston Villa (39%) Roma (11%) Porto (10%) Forest (8%)
Stuttgart (100%)
		Stuttgart (51%) Porto (28%) Braga (20%)
Braga (50%) Porto (50%)
				Forest (37%) Stuttgart (24%) Porto (15%) Betis (9%)
Forest (100%)
		Forest (64%) Betis (20%)
Midtjylland (50%) Betis (50%)
						Aston Villa (26%) Forest (17%) Stuttgart (10%) Roma (9%)
Bologna (100%)
		Bologna (42%) Roma (33%) Freiburg (24%)
Roma (50%) Freiburg (50%)
				Aston Villa (33%) Lyon (16%) Roma (16%) Bologna (14%)
Lille (100%)
		Aston Villa (42%) Lyon (30%) Lille (29%)
Lyon (50%) Aston Villa (50%)

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	75%	47%	34%	19%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	54%	23%	11%	3.7%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	72%	46%	20%	9%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	64%	35%	12%	4.7%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	72%	40%	16%	7%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	62%	28%	9%	3.2%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	57%	31%	19%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	42%	15%	6%	1.8%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	80%	57%	47%	33%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	38%	14%	2.6%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	28%	9%	2.3%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	25%	9%	2.2%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	39%	19%	4.1%	1.7%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	53%	18%	12%	6%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	18%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	20%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lech (100%)
		Lech (38%) Rayo Vallecano (34%) Shakhtar (29%)
Shakhtar (50%) Rayo Vallecano (50%)
				AEK (21%) Alkmaar (19%) Rayo Vallecano (18%) Sparta Praha (15%) Lech (14%)
Alkmaar (100%)
		Alkmaar (39%) AEK (33%) Sparta Praha (28%)
Sparta Praha (50%) AEK (50%)
						Crystal Palace (47%) Fiorentina (12%) Strasbourg (9%)
Crystal Palace (100%)
		Crystal Palace (80%) Mainz (14%)
Larnaca (50%) Mainz (50%)
				Crystal Palace (57%) Fiorentina (18%) Strasbourg (13%)
Fiorentina (100%)
		Fiorentina (53%) Strasbourg (30%) Rakow (17%)
Rakow (50%) Strasbourg (50%)
								Crystal Palace (33%) Strasbourg (19%) AEK (9%) Mainz (9%)
Samsunspor (100%)
		Rayo Vallecano (38%) Shakhtar (34%) Samsunspor (28%)
Rayo Vallecano (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
				AEK (26%) Rayo Vallecano (21%) Sparta Praha (20%) Shakhtar (16%)
Celje (100%)
		AEK (40%) Sparta Praha (36%) Celje (25%)
AEK (50%) Sparta Praha (50%)
						Strasbourg (24%) Mainz (15%) AEK (13%) Rayo Vallecano (10%)
Sigma Olomouc (100%)
		Mainz (44%) Larnaca (36%) Sigma Olomouc (20%)
Mainz (50%) Larnaca (50%)
				Strasbourg (34%) Mainz (24%) Rakow (19%) Larnaca (13%)
Rijeka (100%)
		Strasbourg (45%) Rakow (37%) Rijeka (18%)
Strasbourg (50%) Rakow (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.95%	20.92	14.78	25.61
POL	36%	15.42	13.75	20.25
GER	26%	14.93	11.57	20.93
POR	18%	14.5	11.3	20.2
ESP	15%	14.45	11.13	20.25
ITA	4.5%	13.87	11.71	19.43
GRE	< 1%	11.79	10.2	15.9
FRA	< 1%	11.68	9.19	15.94

Number of semifinalists from POL; 263 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	31%	3.3%
Chance if	16%	73%	98.1%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 254 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	42%	30%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	10%	44%	82%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 253 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	29%	51%	20%
Chance if	2.1%	39%	77%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 227 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	31%	49%	18%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	12%	58%	94%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 209 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	36%	32%	13%	2.6%
Chance if	< 1%	1.8%	15%	51%	85%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 177 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	10%	32%	39%	17%	1.0%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%	31%	61%	80%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 171 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	3.4%	26%	47%	23%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	14%	50%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1.3%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	27%	53%	76%

Number of finalists from GER; 167 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	8%	29%	69%	95%

Number of finalists from POL; 126 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	87%	13%
Chance if	28%	87%