CL: Italian disappointment continues

The Italian disappointment continues. Inter lost 3-1 against Bodee Glimt and their chances crashed from 84% to 45%. It remains one of the most open ties remaining together with Atletico vs Brugge where Atletico wins in 75% of the simulations.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	85%	62%	46%	29%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	48%	30%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	77%	42%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	59%	21%	6%	1.9%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	54%	33%	14%	7%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	53%	31%	13%	6%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	51%	15%	6%	2.3%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	68%	32%	19%	10%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	87%	43%	16%	8%	3.4%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	45%	23%	10%	5%	2.4%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	95.7%	50%	32%	15%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	>99.99%	42%	22%	8%	3.2%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	15%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	75%	32%	13%	4.0%	1.5%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	95.8%	18%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	84%	18%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	85%	19%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	55%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	13%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (96%)
		Paris SG (50%) Barcelona (25%) Chelsea (24%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
				Paris SG (32%) Liverpool (22%) Barcelona (15%) Chelsea (14%)
Galatasaray (85%)
		Liverpool (41%) Tottenham (33%) Galatasaray (19%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
						Arsenal (22%) Paris SG (15%) Bayern (14%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Real Madrid (87%)
		Real Madrid (43%) Man City (31%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
				Arsenal (31%) Bayern (23%) Real Madrid (16%) Man City (15%)
Dortmund (84%)
		Arsenal (42%) Bayern (37%) Dortmund (18%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)
								Arsenal (29%) Bayern (15%) Man City (10%) Liverpool (9%)
Newcastle (100%)
		Newcastle (42%) Barcelona (29%) Chelsea (28%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
				Newcastle (22%) Liverpool (20%) Barcelona (17%) Chelsea (16%) Atletico (13%)
Atletico (75%) Brugge (25%)
		Liverpool (36%) Atletico (32%) Tottenham (26%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
						Arsenal (24%) Bayern (16%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Bodoe Glimt (55%) Inter (45%)
		Man City (37%) Sporting (29%) Inter (23%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
				Arsenal (32%) Bayern (25%) Man City (17%) Inter (10%)
Leverkusen (96%)
		Arsenal (43%) Bayern (39%) Leverkusen (18%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.85%	20.71	14.67	25.83
GER	43%	15.62	10.57	21.79
POL	22%	14.97	12	22.5
POR	22%	14.8	11.3	22.5
ITA	6%	13.57	9.57	22.79
ESP	6%	13.6	9.25	19.94
GRE	< 1%	11.97	9.2	19.8
CYP	< 1%	11.47	9.63	16.88
FRA	< 1%	11.6	8.69	16.19
CZE	< 1%	9.77	7.3	16
TUR	< 1%	9.29	6.6	16.3

Number of semifinalists from GER; 234 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	42%	30%	9%	1.1%
Chance if	7%	30%	66%	91%	99.0%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	29%	49%	20%	2.2%
Chance if	2.1%	16%	59%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	2.9%	25%	46%	25%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	16%	56%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 187 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	53%	19%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	20%	60%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 186 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	32%	40%	18%	2.0%
Chance if	4.0%	21%	50%	78%	92%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	2.7%
Chance if	9%	47%	92%

Number of finalists from GER; 143 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	22%	51%	82%	97%

Number of finalists from POR; 110 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	65%	31%	3.6%
Chance if	11%	37%	83%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 107 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.6%	36%	42%	17%	2.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	20%	57%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 105 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	24%	61%