Man City win the league in 13% of the simulations and on average finish 6.7 points behind Arsenal, mostly due to tougher schedule but the match at home against Arsenal will be massively important. City play Leeds away next, while Arsenal play Chelsea at home. In the relegation race West Ham go to Anfield while Forest go down to the coast at Brighton. Team 17 finished with 38-41 points in most of the simulations.
|
| Average Simulated
Season | Probabilities |
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 61 | Arsenal | 82.1 | +47 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 86% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 56 | Man City | 75.4 | +38 | < 1% | >99.99% | >99.99% | 99.92% | 99.45% | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.93% |
| 51 | Aston Villa | 70.2 | +16 | < 1% | 99.90% | 99.44% | 96.9% | 89% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.7% | 98.2% |
| 45 | Liverpool | 64.7 | +14 | < 1% | 97.0% | 92% | 77% | 52% | < 1% | 2.0% | 18% | 79% |
| 45 | Man United | 62.6 | +12 | < 1% | 91% | 81% | 58% | 31% | < 1% | 6% | 31% | 58% |
| 45 | Chelsea | 61.5 | +19 | < 1% | 90% | 79% | 52% | 25% | < 1% | 5% | 36% | 55% |
| 40 | Brentford | 55.6 | +4 | < 1% | 41% | 19% | 7% | 1.9% | < 1% | 19% | 33% | 7% |
| 36 | Newcastle | 53.3 | +2 | < 1% | 22% | 9% | 2.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 23% | 6% |
| 38 | Bournemouth | 53.3 | -2 | < 1% | 20% | 8% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 16% | 2.2% |
| 37 | Everton | 52.5 | -3 | < 1% | 16% | 6% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 12% | 2.0% |
| 37 | Fulham | 52.1 | -3 | < 1% | 13% | 4.4% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 16% | 1.2% |
| 34 | Brighton | 49.8 | +3 | < 1% | 7% | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 6% | < 1% |
| 35 | Crystal Palace | 47.5 | -9 | < 1% | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.8% | 33% | < 1% |
| 36 | Sunderland | 46.3 | -13 | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | < 1% |
| 31 | Leeds | 45.8 | -10 | 2.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.3% | 3.5% | < 1% |
| 29 | Tottenham | 44.1 | -4 | 3.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.9% |
| 27 | Forest | 40.3 | -17 | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% |
| 25 | West Ham | 35.7 | -25 | 75% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| 19 | Burnley | 30.1 | -30 | 96.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 10 | Wolves | 19.9 | -39 | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | League | FA Cup | League Cup | Europe |
|
|
|
| Arsenal | 86% | 44% | 61% | 29% |
| Man City | 13% | 11% | 39% | 10% |
| Aston Villa | < 1% |
|
| 41% |
| Liverpool | < 1% | 13% |
| 10% |
| Man United | < 1% |
|
|
|
| Chelsea | < 1% | 13% |
| 6% |
| Brentford |
| 3.1% |
|
|
| Newcastle |
| 6% |
| 3.2% |
| Fulham |
| 5% |
|
|
| Crystal Palace |
|
|
| 32% |
| Sunderland |
| < 1% |
|
|
| Leeds |
| 2.9% |
|
|
| Tottenham |
|
|
| 1.9% |
| Forest |
|
|
| 8% |
| West Ham |
| 1.1% |
|
|
| Wolves |
| < 1% |
|
|
Important matches for title race
|
| Leeds vs Man City (2.6%) | Home Win (28%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (48%) |
| Man City | 7% | 10% | 17% |
| Arsenal | 92% | 89% | 82% |
Important matches for CL race
|
| Everton vs Man United (4.4%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Man United | 49% | 58% | 71% |
| Everton | 3.5% | 1.2% | < 1% |
| Chelsea | 58% | 55% | 50% |
| Man United vs Crystal Palace (3.7%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Man United | 66% | 52% | 44% |
| Chelsea | 51% | 57% | 60% |
| Liverpool | 78% | 81% | 82% |
Important matches for avoiding relegation
|
| Liverpool vs West Ham (3%) | Home Win (72%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (12%) |
| West Ham | 21% | 28% | 43% |
| Forest | 82% | 78% | 70% |
| Tottenham | 96.7% | 95.8% | 93% |
| Brighton vs Forest (2.8%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Forest | 75% | 81% | 90% |
| West Ham | 28% | 24% | 18% |
| Burnley | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Brighton | 99.97% | 99.82% | 99.5% |
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