Europa and Conference League

England (99.99%) and Spain (81%) strengthen their position to get an extra CL slot.

Below are the probabilities from 1,000,000 simulations. Betis vs Aston Villa is the most common EL final, while Crystal Palace vs Strasbourg is the most common final in Conference League.

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Braga (100%)
		Betis (62%) Braga (38%)
Betis (100%)
				Betis (36%) Celta (26%) Freiburg (21%) Braga (18%)
Freiburg (100%)
		Celta (54%) Freiburg (46%)
Celta (100%)
						Aston Villa (46%) Betis (13%) Forest (10%)
Porto (100%)
		Forest (53%) Porto (47%)
Forest (100%)
				Aston Villa (62%) Forest (17%) Porto (15%)
Bologna (100%)
		Aston Villa (84%)
Aston Villa (100%)

 

Conference League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (100%)
		Alkmaar (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
Alkmaar (100%)
				Crystal Palace (62%) Fiorentina (19%) Shakhtar (9%)
Crystal Palace (100%)
		Crystal Palace (72%) Fiorentina (28%)
Fiorentina (100%)
						Crystal Palace (41%) Strasbourg (18%) Fiorentina (9%) Mainz (9%)
Rayo Vallecano (100%)
		Rayo Vallecano (50%) AEK (50%)
AEK (100%)
				Strasbourg (38%) Mainz (21%) Rayo Vallecano (21%) AEK (20%)
Mainz (100%)
		Strasbourg (60%) Mainz (40%)
Strasbourg (100%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.99%	19.74	16.83	21.83
ESP	81%	16.83	14.69	19.63
POR	12%	15.23	13.6	19.8
GER	7%	15.04	13.43	17.71
ITA	< 1%	13.63	13.07	15.79

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 231 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	38%	26%	7%
Chance if	10%	58%	89%	98.5%	99.95%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	27%	46%	24%	3.4%
Chance if	< 1%	2.2%	33%	76%

Number of finalists from POR; 181 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	64%	31%	4.6%
Chance if	1.5%	22%	81%

Number of finalists from ESP; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	44%	30%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	40%	83%	96.1%	99.5%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	13%	39%	37%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%	43%

Number of finalists from GER; 131 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	43%	14%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	4.1%	30%	88%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 58 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	7%	33%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 41 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	57%	36%	7%
Chance if	73%	89%	97.4%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 29 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	25%	2.7%
Chance if	4.3%	13%	35%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.7%	14%	33%	36%	14%
Chance if	99.9%	>99.99%	100%	100%	100%