PL: 6-point matches in CL race

Man City dropped two points and technically no longer has the title race in their own hands, but if they win all their matches, they win the title in 92% of simulations. Next weekend there are United play Villa at home and Chelsea play Newcastle, two important matches in the CL race. In the relegation race four teams are fighting over three new contracts, while Wolves and Burnley are unlikely to escape the hole they've found themselves in.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
West Ham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Tottenham: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 less than expected
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Newcastle: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected
Fulham: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
67	Arsenal	84.2	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
60	Man City	75.9	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.79%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
51	Aston Villa	66.1	+9	< 1%	99.14%	96.0%	84%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	90%
51	Man United	64.9	+13	< 1%	98.1%	92%	76%	54%	< 1%	2.0%	22%	76%
48	Liverpool	63.8	+14	< 1%	96.6%	89%	67%	43%	< 1%	2.5%	26%	71%
48	Chelsea	62.8	+23	< 1%	95.3%	86%	61%	35%	< 1%	3.5%	32%	62%
44	Brentford	57.3	+6	< 1%	59%	24%	9%	3.0%	< 1%	20%	48%	9%
43	Everton	53.7	-2	< 1%	18%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	16%	1.6%
39	Newcastle	52.3	+0	< 1%	11%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	15%	3.4%
40	Bournemouth	51.9	-3	< 1%	9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	8%	< 1%
40	Fulham	51.2	-5	< 1%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	< 1%
37	Brighton	49.9	+3	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	4.2%	< 1%
40	Sunderland	48.9	-10	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	2.4%	< 1%
38	Crystal Palace	48.6	-6	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	39%	< 1%
31	Leeds	43.0	-12	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%
29	Tottenham	40.8	-8	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%
28	Forest	39.6	-16	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%
28	West Ham	37.7	-24	53%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
19	Burnley	27.8	-32	99.25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Wolves	24.0	-35	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	94%	44%	59%	35%
Man City	6%	12%	41%	10%
Aston Villa	< 1%			35%
Man United	< 1%
Liverpool	< 1%	14%		11%
Chelsea	< 1%	12%		4.2%
Brentford		3.4%
Newcastle		5%		2.9%
Fulham		4.1%
Sunderland		< 1%
Crystal Palace				38%
Leeds		3.3%
Tottenham				1.2%
Forest				7%
West Ham		1.2%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Everton (2%)	Home Win (74%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Arsenal	95.4%	90%	86%
Man City	4.6%	10%	14%
West Ham vs Man City (2%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Man City	2.6%	4.2%	9%
Arsenal	97.3%	95.8%	91%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	2.8%	2.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	2.8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	10%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
88	17%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
87	23%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	92%
86	37%	14%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
85	48%	11%	99.4%	1.1%	< 1%	71%
84	59%	11%	98.5%	2.1%	1.1%	56%
83	71%	12%	96.4%	3.7%	1.6%	46%
82	79%	8%	93%	8%	3.8%	30%
81	87%	7%	89%	11%	4.0%	21%
80	92%	5%	81%	17%	6%	13%
79	95.2%	3.2%	73%	26%	8%	7%
78	97.4%	2.2%	63%	34%	8%	4.3%
77	98.7%	1.3%	51%	44%	10%	2.1%
76	99.37%	< 1%	40%	55%	11%	1.0%
75	99.73%	< 1%	28%	64%	9%	< 1%
74	99.89%	< 1%	20%	73%	9%	< 1%
73	99.96%	< 1%	14%	81%	8%	< 1%
72	99.99%	< 1%	6%	87%	6%	< 1%
71	>99.99%	< 1%	-	92%	4.8%	< 1%
70	>99.99%	< 1%	-	95%	3.3%	< 1%
69	100%	< 1%	-	97.1%	2.1%	< 1%
68	100%	< 1%	-	98.5%	1.4%	< 1%
67	100%	< 1%	-	99.26%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Man United vs Aston Villa (6.5%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Man United	86%	73%	63%
Aston Villa	85%	90%	96.2%
Chelsea vs Newcastle (4.5%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Chelsea	72%	56%	47%
Liverpool	68%	73%	75%
Man United	73%	78%	80%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Man City (5.7%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
West Ham	65%	47%	38%
Forest	65%	73%	78%
Tottenham	80%	85%	88%
Leeds	90%	93%	95%
Forest vs Fulham (4.8%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Forest	83%	70%	62%
West Ham	41%	49%	54%
Tottenham	83%	86%	88%

	West Ham			Forest			Tottenham			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.8%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	4.2%	2.1%	100%	12%	4.3%	100%
47	1.0%	< 1%	100%	3.8%	1.9%	100%	7%	2.6%	100%	18%	7%	100%
46	1.9%	< 1%	99.9%	6%	2.4%	100%	11%	3.9%	100%	25%	7%	100%
45	3.3%	1.4%	99.9%	10%	3.7%	99.99%	17%	6%	>99.99%	34%	9%	>99.99%
44	6%	2.8%	99.6%	16%	6%	99.9%	24%	7%	99.98%	45%	10%	99.97%
43	10%	3.4%	98.2%	22%	6%	99.5%	32%	9%	99.8%	55%	10%	99.8%
42	15%	5%	95%	30%	8%	98.4%	43%	10%	99.2%	65%	10%	99.2%
41	22%	7%	88%	40%	10%	95.2%	53%	10%	97.6%	75%	10%	97.2%
40	30%	8%	78%	50%	10%	90%	63%	10%	94%	82%	8%	93%
39	40%	10%	65%	60%	10%	81%	73%	10%	87%	88%	6%	86%
38	51%	11%	50%	70%	10%	70%	81%	8%	78%	93%	4.8%	75%
37	61%	10%	36%	78%	8%	56%	87%	7%	65%	96.2%	2.9%	60%
36	71%	10%	23%	86%	7%	42%	92%	5%	50%	98.1%	2.0%	45%
35	81%	9%	14%	91%	6%	29%	95.6%	3.2%	36%	99.22%	1.1%	29%
34	88%	7%	7%	95%	3.6%	18%	97.8%	2.2%	24%	99.69%	< 1%	16%
33	93%	5%	3.5%	97.3%	2.5%	10%	99.03%	1.3%	13%	99.90%	< 1%	7%
32	96.6%	3.7%	1.3%	98.8%	1.5%	6%	99.60%	< 1%	7%	99.98%	< 1%	3%
31	98.4%	1.9%	< 1%	99.51%	< 1%	2%	99.87%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%
30	99.40%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
29	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points