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In EL, Aston Villa are favorites on the lower half and likely playing Betis or Freiburg. In Conference League, Crystal Palace are favorites and likely playing Rayo Vallecano or Mainz in the final.
The English teams have secured an extra CL spot, so there will be at least five teams from Premier League. The second spot is most likely going to La Liga (66%) or Bundesliga (27%). La Liga almost secure (99.5%) a spot if four Spanish teams reach semifinals and have good (75%) chance if three Spanish teams reach semifinals.
They have
Barcelona or Atletico (100%)
Real have 1-2 vs Bayern (16%)
Betis have 1-1 vs Braga (68%)
Celta have 0-3 vs Freiburg (11%)
Rayo Vallecano have 3-0 vs AEK (93%)
Bundesliga need all three teams going through to semifinals to have a reasonable chance (42%). They have
Bayern have 2-1 vs Real (84%)
Freiburg have 3-0 vs Celta (89%)
Mainz have 2-0 vs Strasbourg (78%)
Europa League
| Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||
Betis (68%) Braga (32%) | ||||
Betis (40%) Freiburg (38%) Braga (16%) | ||||
Freiburg (89%) | ||||
Aston Villa (44%) Betis (15%) Freiburg (12%) | ||||
Forest (58%) Porto (42%) | ||||
Aston Villa (63%) Forest (20%) | ||||
Aston Villa (98%) |
Conference League
| Semi-finals | Final | Champions | ||
Shakhtar (92%) | ||||
Crystal Palace (80%) Shakhtar (16%) | ||||
Crystal Palace (96%) | ||||
Crystal Palace (51%) Mainz (18%) Rayo Vallecano (17%) | ||||
Rayo Vallecano (93%) | ||||
Rayo Vallecano (42%) Mainz (42%) Strasbourg (13%) | ||||
Mainz (78%) Strasbourg (22%) |
Which countries get extra CL spots
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ENG | 100% | 19.89 | 17.5 | 21.5 |
| ESP | 66% | 16.57 | 15.06 | 19 |
| GER | 27% | 15.96 | 14.29 | 17.71 |
| POR | 6% | 14.92 | 14 | 19 |
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Probability | 18% | 42% | 32% | 8% | |||
| Chance if | 1.4% | 11% | 46% | 92% |
Number of finalists from ESP; 247 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Probability | 22% | 43% | 28% | 7% | |||
| Chance if | 23% | 65% | 93% | 99.8% |
Number of semifinalists from ESP; 236 mbit
| n | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||
| Probability | 1.6% | 26% | 55% | 15% | 1.1% | ||||||||
| Chance if | 5% | 29% | 75% | 99.5% | >99.99% |
Number of semifinalists from POR; 169 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||
| Probability | 37% | 47% | 16% | < 1% | |||||||||
| Chance if | < 1% | < 1% | 33% | 82% |
Number of finalists from POR; 160 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| Probability | 68% | 29% | 3.5% | ||||
| Chance if | < 1% | 11% | 84% |
Number of semifinalists from GER; 129 mbit
| n | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||
| Probability | 7% | 35% | 58% | ||||||||||
| Chance if | < 1% | 9% | 42% |
Number of tournament winners for ESP; 70 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Probability | 59% | 34% | 6% | |
| Chance if | 55% | 80% | 95.2% |
Number of tournament winners for POR; 57 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | ||
| Probability | 84% | 16% | ||
| Chance if | 2.8% | 23% |
Number of tournament winners for GER; 53 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Probability | 55% | 37% | 8% | < 1% |
| Chance if | 18% | 34% | 58% | 91% |
