1st Leg Quarterfinals Europa and Conference League

In EL, Aston Villa are favorites on the lower half and likely playing Betis or Freiburg. In Conference League, Crystal Palace are favorites and likely playing Rayo Vallecano or Mainz in the final.

The English teams have secured an extra CL spot, so there will be at least five teams from Premier League. The second spot is most likely going to La Liga (66%) or Bundesliga (27%). La Liga almost secure (99.5%) a spot if four Spanish teams reach semifinals and have good (75%) chance if three Spanish teams reach semifinals.

They have

Barcelona or Atletico (100%)

Real have 1-2 vs Bayern (16%)

Betis have 1-1 vs Braga (68%)

Celta have 0-3 vs Freiburg (11%)

Rayo Vallecano have 3-0 vs AEK (93%)

 

Bundesliga need all three teams going through to semifinals to have a reasonable chance (42%). They have 

Bayern have 2-1 vs Real (84%)

Freiburg have 3-0 vs Celta (89%)

Mainz have 2-0 vs Strasbourg (78%)

 

Europa League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (68%) Braga (32%)
		Betis (40%) Freiburg (38%) Braga (16%)
Freiburg (89%)
				Aston Villa (44%) Betis (15%) Freiburg (12%)
Forest (58%) Porto (42%)
		Aston Villa (63%) Forest (20%)
Aston Villa (98%)

 

Conference League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (92%)
		Crystal Palace (80%) Shakhtar (16%)
Crystal Palace (96%)
				Crystal Palace (51%) Mainz (18%) Rayo Vallecano (17%)
Rayo Vallecano (93%)
		Rayo Vallecano (42%) Mainz (42%) Strasbourg (13%)
Mainz (78%) Strasbourg (22%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.89	17.5	21.5
ESP	66%	16.57	15.06	19
GER	27%	15.96	14.29	17.71
POR	6%	14.92	14	19

Number of finalists from GER; 259 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	42%	32%	8%
Chance if	1.4%	11%	46%	92%

Number of finalists from ESP; 247 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	22%	43%	28%	7%
Chance if	23%	65%	93%	99.8%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 236 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	26%	55%	15%	1.1%
Chance if	5%	29%	75%	99.5%	>99.99%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	37%	47%	16%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	33%	82%

Number of finalists from POR; 160 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	3.5%
Chance if	< 1%	11%	84%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 129 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	7%	35%	58%
Chance if	< 1%	9%	42%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 70 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	59%	34%	6%
Chance if	55%	80%	95.2%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 57 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	2.8%	23%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 53 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	55%	37%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	18%	34%	58%	91%