PL: Title match at Etihad

Title match at Etihad where Arsenal can clinch the title with a win and City are likely to win the league if they win given the momentum.

Before that we have plenty of important matches for qualifications to the Europa cups. And on top of that a tight relegation race with Spurs visiting Brighton and Burnley going to Forest for a last chance. 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	82.8	+46	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
64	Man City	76.1	+39	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
55	Aston Villa	64.9	+8	< 1%	99.47%	98.2%	94%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	96.5%
55	Man United	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.0%	96.9%	91%	73%	< 1%	1.0%	8%	91%
52	Liverpool	61.8	+12	< 1%	95%	88%	73%	40%	< 1%	3.9%	19%	74%
48	Chelsea	57.3	+14	< 1%	67%	48%	21%	6%	< 1%	10%	53%	21%
47	Everton	55.7	+3	< 1%	38%	21%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	18%	27%	7%
47	Brentford	55.1	+5	< 1%	33%	17%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	19%	24%	6%
46	Brighton	55.1	+7	< 1%	36%	20%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	18%	26%	6%
45	Bournemouth	53.3	-1	< 1%	14%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	11%	1.2%
46	Sunderland	52.1	-7	< 1%	7%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5%	< 1%
44	Fulham	51.4	-5	< 1%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	4.2%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	50.4	-2	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	2.5%	< 1%
42	Crystal Palace	49.6	-5	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	52%	< 1%
36	Leeds	44.4	-10	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	< 1%
33	Forest	41.1	-12	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%
32	West Ham	38.2	-20	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Tottenham	37.2	-13	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	25.4	-35	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	24.3	-36	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	91%			43%
Man City	9%	57%	100%
Aston Villa	< 1%			44%
Liverpool				2.8%
Chelsea		28%
Crystal Palace				51%
Leeds		12%
Forest				11%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Arsenal (13.4%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Arsenal	80%	94%	99.0%
Man City	20%	6%	1.0%

Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Liverpool (10.5%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Liverpool	61%	74%	88%
Everton	15%	3.9%	1.2%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Everton vs Liverpool (10.3%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Everton	52%	29%	20%
Liverpool	88%	94%	98.6%
Brentford vs Fulham (9.7%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Brentford	41%	21%	12%
Fulham	1.2%	3.6%	12%
Tottenham vs Brighton (7.1%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Brighton	19%	28%	49%
Brentford	33%	31%	26%
Newcastle vs Bournemouth (5.7%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Bournemouth	6%	11%	26%
Newcastle	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Fulham (13.8%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Brentford	63%	39%	25%
Fulham	3.9%	9%	25%
Everton vs Liverpool (9.2%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Everton	71%	49%	37%
Liverpool	95%	98.0%	99.68%
Newcastle vs Bournemouth (8.9%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Bournemouth	15%	24%	44%
Newcastle	11%	3.0%	1.1%
Tottenham vs Brighton (7.8%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Brighton	35%	47%	69%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Brighton (9.6%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Tottenham	68%	47%	37%
West Ham	48%	63%	71%
Forest	87%	91%	94%
Forest vs Burnley (3.9%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Forest	95.3%	86%	79%
Tottenham	49%	54%	57%
West Ham	58%	62%	65%