CL: And so they were six

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Bayern (49%) Paris SG (43%)
Bayern (84%)
				Arsenal (44%) Bayern (24%) Paris SG (18%)
Atletico (100%)
		Arsenal (73%) Atletico (23%)
Arsenal (93%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.7	17.5	20.5
ESP	66%	16.55	15.06	19.13
GER	28%	15.96	14.29	17.71
POR	6%	14.92	14	19

Number of finalists from GER; 260 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	42%	32%	8%
Chance if	1.5%	12%	47%	92%

Number of finalists from ESP; 248 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	22%	44%	28%	6%
Chance if	23%	65%	93%	99.8%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 237 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	26%	55%	15%	1.1%
Chance if	5%	29%	75%	99.5%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 172 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	36%	47%	16%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	34%	83%

Number of finalists from POR; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	3.5%
Chance if	< 1%	11%	85%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 129 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	7%	35%	58%
Chance if	< 1%	9%	42%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 69 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	60%	33%	6%
Chance if	55%	80%	95.5%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 57 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	2.9%	23%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 53 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	55%	37%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	18%	34%	59%	90%