CL: Final Four

 Probabilities final four

Final		Champions
Bayern (58%) Paris SG (42%)
		Arsenal (44%) Bayern (29%) Paris SG (19%)
Arsenal (79%) Atletico (21%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.69	17.78	20.39
ESP	51%	16.32	15.06	18
GER	43%	16.23	14.79	17.71
POR	6%	14.96	14.2	17.4

Number of finalists from GER; 300 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	13%	38%	37%	12%
Chance if	3.4%	21%	63%	96.7%

Number of finalists from ESP; 282 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	46%	23%	3.5%
Chance if	12%	52%	89%	99.6%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 192 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.9%	33%	61%	4.9%
Chance if	2%	20%	64%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 159 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	40%	47%	13%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	41%

Number of finalists from POR; 148 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	26%	2.3%
Chance if	< 1%	14%	94%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 82 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	1.6%	25%	73%
Chance if	< 1%	19%	53%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 71 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	67%	29%	4.0%
Chance if	40%	68%	92%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 60 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	48%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	31%	49%	73%	96%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 52 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	86%	14%
Chance if	2.9%	25%