PL: Perfect start for Arsenal, City, Chelsea, and Hull

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
6	Arsenal	83.1	+50		99.94%	99.87%	99.71%	99.33%	79%	< 0.1%	0.20%	99.75%
6	Man City	73.4	+33	< 0.1%	97.5%	95.9%	93%	88%	16%	1.0%	4.3%	93%
3	Man United	62.7	+17	< 0.1%	72%	64%	53%	41%	1.4%	7%	19%	54%
2	Liverpool	62.5	+17	< 0.1%	72%	63%	53%	40%	1.3%	7%	19%	54%
0	Aston Villa	62.5	+16	< 0.1%	71%	63%	52%	39%	1.2%	7%	19%	53%
1	Bournemouth	57.3	+10	0.43%	46%	36%	27%	17%	0.27%	9%	15%	43%
6	Chelsea	57.3	+4	0.41%	44%	35%	25%	16%	0.27%	9%	18%	25%
4	Newcastle	56.1	+6	0.60%	39%	30%	21%	13%	0.18%	8%	17%	20%
3	Brighton	55.9	+8	0.65%	38%	29%	21%	13%	0.17%	5%	39%	20%
4	Brentford	55.6	+6	0.70%	36%	28%	19%	12%	0.16%	12%	17%	19%
4	Everton	52.1	-1	2.1%	21%	14%	9%	5%	< 0.1%	9%	11%	9%
1	Forest	51.4	-0	2.6%	18%	13%	8%	4.6%	< 0.1%	5%	11%	8%
4	Leeds	51.3	-3	2.6%	18%	12%	8%	4.3%	< 0.1%	6%	10%	8%
0	Fulham	48.9	-3	4.9%	11%	7%	4.5%	2.3%	< 0.1%	4.8%	8%	4.3%
0	Crystal Palace	48.4	-7	6%	10%	6%	3.8%	2.0%	< 0.1%	3.9%	6%	15%
0	Tottenham	45.1	-13	12%	4.3%	2.6%	1.4%	0.68%	< 0.1%	2.5%	3.8%	1.4%
3	Sunderland	42.6	-17	19%	2.1%	1.2%	0.63%	0.28%	< 0.1%	2.0%	1.8%	5%
3	Ipswich	33.1	-36	74%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.22%	0.16%	< 0.1%
0	Coventry	31.9	-34	78%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.16%	0.21%	< 0.1%
6	Hull	26.5	-52	95.4%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	79%	31%	34%	28%
Man City	16%	14%	13%	9%
Man United	1.4%	8%	6%	4.6%
Liverpool	1.3%	7%	9%	4.7%
Aston Villa	1.2%	8%	6%	5%
Bournemouth	0.27%	4.7%	8%	24%
Chelsea	0.27%	2.8%	2.0%
Newcastle	0.18%	3.1%	1.3%
Brighton	0.17%	3.3%	1.3%	34%
Brentford	0.16%	3.0%	8%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.9%	4.5%
Forest	< 0.1%	2.5%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.8%	0.72%
Fulham	< 0.1%	2.2%	1.2%
Crystal Palace	< 0.1%	1.9%	1.1%	11%
Tottenham	< 0.1%	1.3%	0.71%
Sunderland	< 0.1%	0.69%	1.1%	4.8%
Ipswich		0.13%	0.19%
Coventry		0.18%	0.13%
Hull		< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Chelsea (1.2%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (13%)
Arsenal	81%	75%	72%
Man City	14%	18%	21%