Congratulations Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon, which qualified over the weekend.

We now have 23 qualified countries and 16 countries fight about the remaining 8 slots. In Africa, Algeria will meet Burkina Faso on Tuesday and need to turn around their 3-2 loss in Ouagadougou. Ghana will go to Cairo and try to defend their 6-1 lead against Egypt. In Europe, Portugal increased their chances with 14% by winning 1-0 against Sweden. Ukraine surprised the world winning 2-0 against France and are now the favourite to qualify (82%). Greece won 3-1 against Romania which was a remarkable result as Greece only scored on average 1.2 goals in previous qualification against in theory easier teams. Croatia did not manage to score against Iceland, a heroic Iceland playing with 10 men for almost entire second half. In the intercontinental playoff the teams from the western hemisphere showed their strength, when Mexico beat New Zealand with 5-1 home at Azteca and Uruguay beat Jordan away in Amman.

Country	Qual	Nov 01	Jun 01	Champ	Nov 01	Jun 01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.2	-0.1	+8.6
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.04	+0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	7.6	-0.1	-0.4
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	6.6	-0.1	+1.8
Spain	100	+0.0	+0.4	20.6	+0.0	-9.5
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.21	-0.0	+0.8
Germany	100	+0.0	+0.7	13.6	+0.0	+0.6
Russia	100	+0.0	+1.0	0.56	-0.0	-0.8
Ecuador	100	+0.0	+1.2	0.33	+0.0	-0.3
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.01	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	2.19	+0.0	+0.3
Switzerland	100	+0.0	+5.2	0.51	+0.0	+0.3
England	100	+0.0	+6.8	3.42	-0.0	-1.1
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.57	-0.1	+0.5
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.023	-0.0	-0.1
Chile	100	+0.0	+23.6	0.89	+0.0	+0.7
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+0.0	+29.9	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
Honduras	100	+0.0	+43.2	0.009	-0.0	+0.0
Belgium	100	+0.0	+49.4	1.05	+0.0	+1.0
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.04	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.016	-0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	100	+2.5	+48.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	100	+3.3	+11.7	0.26	+0.0	-0.4
Cameroon	100	+28.0	+77.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Uruguay	99.96	+9.3	+70.3	2.47	+0.2	+2.3
Ghana	99.87	+0.0	+61.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Mexico	98.75	+26.0	+1.8	0.06	+0.0	-2.2
Greece	89.9	+22.8	+22.2	0.4	+0.1	+0.2
Croatia	87.1	+1.5	-1.6	0.27	+0.0	-0.6
Ukraine	82.2	+42.7	+70.9	0.31	+0.2	+0.3
Burkina Faso	70.5	-0.1	+65.6	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Portugal	69.3	+13.6	-4.3	0.94	+0.2	-1.0
Sweden	30.7	-13.6	-34.8	0.24	-0.1	-0.4
Algeria	29.5	+0.1	+12.9	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
France	17.8	-42.7	-50.7	0.19	-0.5	-0.3
Iceland	12.9	-1.5	+10.6	0	-0.0	+0.0
Romania	10.1	-22.8	-14.3	0.005	-0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	1.25	-26.1	-35.1	0	-0.0	-0.0
Egypt	0.13	+0.0	-74.4	0	-0.0	-0.0
Jordan	0.04	-9.3	-18.0	0	-0.0	-0.0

Champions League After Day 4

Group A
8 Man United
7 Leverkusen
5 Shakhtar
1 Sociedad

Shakhtar - Sociedad
Leverkusen - Man United

• Man United clinch qualification if they win against Leverkusen
• Leverkusen clinch qualification if they win against Man United
• Shakhtar miss qualification if they lose against Sociedad and Leverkusen and Man United draw
• Sociedad miss qualification if they fail to win against Shakhtar

Group B

10 Real Madrid
4 Galatasaray
4 Copenhagen
3 Juventus

Juventus - Copenhagen
Real Madrid - Galatasaray

• Real Madrid has clinched qualification
• Copenhagen miss qualification if they lose against Juventus
• Juventus miss qualification if they lose against Copenhagen

Group C

10 Paris
7 Olympiakos
4 Benfica
1 Anderlecht

Paris - Olympiakos
Anderlecht - Benfica

• Paris clinch qualification if Olympiakos fail to win against Paris
• Olympiakos clinch qualification if Benfica fail to win against Anderlecht and Paris fail to win against Olympiakos
• Benfica miss qualification if Benfica lose against Anderlecht
• Anderlecht miss qualification if they fail to win against Benfica

Group D

12 Munich
9 Man City
3 Moscow
0 Plzen

Moscow - Munich
Man City - Plzen

• Munich has clinched qualification
• Man City has clinched qualification
• Moscow cannot qualify
• Plzen cannot qualify

Group E

9 Chelsea
6 Schalke
5 Basel
2 Bucharest

Basel - Chelsea
Bucharest - Schalke

• Chelsea clinch qualification if Schalke fail to win against Bucharest
• Schalke clinch qualification if they win against Bucharest and Chelsea win against Basel
• Basel miss qualification if they lose against Chelsea and Schalke win against Bucharest
• Bucharest miss qualification if they fail to win against Schalke

Group F

9 Arsenal
9 Napoli
6 Dortmund
0 Marseille

Arsenal - Marseille
Dortmund - Napoli

• Arsenal clinch qualification if they win against Marseille and Dortmund fail to win against Napoli
• Napoli clinch qualification if they at least draw against Dortmund
• Dortmund miss qualification if they fail to win against Napoli and Arsenal win against Marseille
• Marseille cannot qualify

Group G

12 Atletico Madrid
5 Zenit
4 Porto
1 Austria

Zenit - Atletico Madrid
Porto - Austria

• Atletico Madrid has clinched qualification
• Zenit clinch qualification if they win against Atletico Madrid and Porto fail to win against Austria
• Porto miss qualification if they fail to win against Austria and Zenit win against Atletico Madrid
• Austria miss qualification if they fail to win against Porto and Atletico Madrid fail to win against Zenit

Group H

10 Barcelona
5 Milan
4 Ajax
3 Celtic

Ajax - Barcelona
Celtic - Milan

• Barcelona has clinched qualification
• Milan clinch qualification if they win against Celtic and Barcelona win against Ajax
• Ajax miss qualification if they lose against Barcelona and Milan win against Celtic
• Celtic miss qualification if they fail to win against Milan

Champions League Day 4

Group E
6 Chelsea
6 Schalke
4 Basel
1 Bucharest

Basel - Bucharest
Chelsea - Schalke

• Bucharest miss qualification if they lose against Basel

Group F
6 Arsenal
6 Dortmund
6 Napoli
0 Marseille

Dortmund - Arsenal
Napoli - Marseille

• Marseille miss qualification if they fail to win against Napoli

Group G
9 Atletico Madrid
4 Zenit
3 Porto
1 Austria

Zenit - Porto
Atletico Madrid - Austria

• Atletico Madrid clinch qualification if they win against Austria
• Atletico Madrid clinch qualification if they draw Austria and Zenit win against Porto

Group H
7 Barcelona
5 Milan
3 Celtic
1 Ajax

Ajax - Celtic
Barcelona - Milan

• Barcelona clinch qualification if they win against Milan
• Ajax miss qualification if they lose against Celtic

Champions League Day 4

Group A
7 Man United
6 Leverkusen
4 Shakhtar
0 Sociedad

Sociedad - Man United
Shakhtar - Leverkusen

Group B
9 Real Madrid
4 Galatasaray
2 Juventus
1 Copenhagen

Juventus - Real Madrid
Copenhagen - Galatasaray

• Real Madrid clinch qualification if Juventus fail to win against Real Madrid
• Real Madrid clinch qualification if Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw

Group C
9 Paris
4 Olympiakos
4 Benfica
0 Anderlecht

Paris - Anderlecht
Olympiakos - Benfica

• Paris clinch qualification if Paris win against Anderlecht

Group D
9 Munich
6 Man City
3 Moscow
0 Plzen

Man City - Moscow
Plzen - Munich

• Munich clinch qualification if Plzen fail to win against Munich and Man City win against Moscow
• Munich clinch qualification if Munich win against Plzen and Man City and Moscow draw
• Man City clinch qualification if Plzen fail to win against Munich and Man City win against Moscow

The European playoff was drawn last week and resulted in the following matches:

a) Greece - Romania
b) Iceland - Croatia
c) Portugal - Sweden
d) Ukraine - France

Simulating the matches given that draw gives the following probabilities:

Country	Qual	Oct 1	May 1	Champ	Oct 1	May 1
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.3	-0.3	+8.7
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.04	-0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	7.7	-1.9	-0.3
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	6.7	+2.3	+1.9
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.22	+0.1	+0.8
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.012	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	2.16	-1.1	+0.3
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.63	+0.2	+0.6
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.025	-0.0	-0.1
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.04	-0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.019	-0.0	+0.0
Spain	100	+0.1	+0.4	20.6	-0.9	-9.5
Switzerland	100	+0.1	+5.2	0.5	-0.2	+0.2
Germany	100	+0.1	+0.7	13.6	+2.5	+0.6
Belgium	100	+0.7	+49.4	1.03	+0.0	+1.0
Chile	100	+1.1	+23.6	0.86	+0.2	+0.6
Ecuador	100	+6.8	+1.2	0.31	+0.0	-0.3
Russia	100	+7.0	+1.0	0.57	-0.1	-0.7
England	100	+9.6	+6.8	3.43	+0.6	-1.1
Honduras	100	+10.9	+43.2	0.011	+0.0	+0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+11.6	+29.9	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
Ghana	99.87	+50.7	+61.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	97.53	+6.0	+45.7	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	96.73	+11.2	+8.4	0.24	+0.0	-0.4
Uruguay	90.7	-3.3	+61.0	2.22	-0.2	+2.1
Croatia	85.6	+19.6	-3.1	0.27	-0.4	-0.6
Mexico	72.7	+24.7	-24.2	0.04	+0.0	-2.3
Cameroon	72	+13.8	+49.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Burkina Faso	70.6	+24.8	+65.7	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Greece	67.1	+0.3	-0.6	0.29	+0.0	+0.1
France	60.5	+6.6	-8.0	0.67	+0.2	+0.2
Portugal	55.7	-21.8	-17.9	0.75	-0.7	-1.2
Sweden	44.3	-12.7	-21.2	0.34	-0.3	-0.3
Ukraine	39.5	-17.3	+28.2	0.15	-0.1	+0.1
Romania	32.9	+16.5	+8.5	0.02	+0.0	-0.0
Algeria	29.4	-24.8	+12.8	0.0002	-0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	28	-13.8	-28.6	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	27.3	-4.5	-9.1	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	14.4	+9.9	+12.1	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Jordan	9.3	-3.7	-8.7	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	3.27	-11.2	-14.0	0	-0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	2.47	-6.0	-1.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	0.13	-50.7	-74.4	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0

Congratulations to Spain, Russia, England, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Honduras, Ecuador, and Chile, which all have qualified for World Cup.

In Europe, Denmark became the unlucky runner-up missing the playoff. In the draw of the playoff, Croatia, Greece, Portugal, and Ukraine are seeded and will play one of the following countries: France, Iceland, Romania, and Sweden.

In North and Central America Honduras secured qualification aftera draw against Jamaica. Mexico needed to at least draw against Costa Rica to secure playoff against New Zealand, but failed doing so and instead lost with 2-1. Instead Mexico were helped by USA who won against Panama.

In South America everyone expected Chile and Ecuador to draw as that would qualify both countries. Chile had other plans scored twice before Ecuador manage to finalize the scoreboard to 2-1. That gave Uruguay a small chance to win the qualification, if they could beat Argentina. They managed to pull in the victory but with a couple of too few goals, and will now play Jordan in inter-continental playoff.

In Africa the first leg of the final playoff have been played with the following result:

Ivory Coast 3 - 1 Senegal
Ethiopia      1 - 2 Nigeria
Tunisia        0 - 0 Cameroon
Ghana         6 - 1 Egypt
Burkina Fa 3 - 2 Algeria

We now have 20 countries that  have qualified for the finals in Brazil, which means there are 11 more slots to fill; 4 countries from Europe, 5 from Africa, and two from the intercontinental playoffs: Mexico-New Zealand and Uruguay-Jordan.

Below is the table with remaining countries chances as usual.

Country	Qual	Oct-01	May-01	Champ	Oct-01	May-01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.3	-0.3	+8.7
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.04	-0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	7.7	-1.9	-0.3
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	5.7	+1.3	+0.9
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.21	+0.1	+0.8
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.009	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	2.24	-1.0	+0.4
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.62	+0.2	+0.5
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.024	-0.0	-0.1
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.018	-0.0	+0.0
Spain	100	+0.1	+0.4	20.8	-0.7	-9.3
Switzerland	100	+0.1	+5.2	0.75	+0.1	+0.5
Germany	100	+0.1	+0.7	13.9	+2.8	+0.9
Belgium	100	+0.7	+49.4	1.06	+0.0	+1.0
Chile	100	+1.1	+23.6	0.9	+0.2	+0.7
Ecuador	100	+6.8	+1.2	0.32	+0.0	-0.3
Russia	100	+7.0	+1.0	0.55	-0.1	-0.8
England	100	+9.6	+6.8	3.39	+0.6	-1.1
Honduras	100	+10.9	+43.2	0.011	+0.0	+0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+11.6	+29.9	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
Ghana	99.87	+50.7	+61.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	97.56	+6.1	+45.8	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	96.7	+11.2	+8.4	0.26	+0.1	-0.4
Uruguay	90.8	-3.2	+61.1	2.25	-0.2	+2.1
Mexico	72.6	+24.6	-24.3	0.04	+0.0	-2.3
Cameroon	72	+13.8	+49.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Burkina Faso	70.5	+24.7	+65.6	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Portugal	68.9	-8.6	-4.7	0.92	-0.5	-1.0
Greece	59.8	-7.0	-7.9	0.26	-0.0	+0.1
Ukraine	58.7	+1.9	+47.4	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
France	57.6	+3.7	-10.9	0.65	+0.2	+0.2
Croatia	57.2	-8.8	-31.5	0.17	-0.5	-0.7
Sweden	53.9	-3.1	-11.6	0.42	-0.2	-0.3
Romania	31.6	+15.2	+7.2	0.016	+0.0	-0.0
Algeria	29.5	-24.7	+12.9	0.0004	-0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	28	-13.8	-28.6	0.0002	+0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	27.4	-4.4	-9.0	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	12.3	+7.8	+10.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Jordan	9.2	-3.8	-8.8	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	3.3	-11.2	-14.0	0	-0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	2.44	-6.1	-1.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	0.13	-50.7	-74.4	0	-0.0	-0.0

CONCACAF

3. Honduras 14 +1
4. Mexico 11 -1
5. Panama 8 +3

Honduras will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Jamaica or Mexico fail winning against Costa Rica.
Mexico will clinch qualification if they win against Costa Rica, and Honduras lose against Jamaica, and one of the wins is at least with two goals margin. Mexico will clinch playoff if they do not lose against Costa Rica, or if Panama fail winning against United States.

Panama will clinch playoff if they win against United States, and Mexico lose against Costa Rica, and one of the wins is with at least two goals margin.

CONMEBOL

Colombia clinched qualification. Ecuador will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Chile, or if Uruguay fail winning against Argentina. Chile will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Ecuador, or if Uruguay fail winning against Argentina.

UEFA

In Europe Belgium, Germany and Switzerland have clinched qualification. Russia will clinch qualification unless they lose against Azerbaijan and Portugal win against Luxembourg with a total goal difference of seven goals. Bosnia and Herzegovina will clinch qualification if they win against Lithuania (unless Greece win thei last game with 17 goals). England will clinch qualification if they win against Poland, or if they draw and Ukraine fail winning against San Marino. Spain will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Georgia or if France fail winning against Finland.

Sweden, Russia, Portugal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, England, Spain, and France have clinched at least playoff. One of the following countries will be the ninth runner up and miss playoff: Romania, Croatia, Hungary, Turkey, Slovenia, Armenia, Bulgaria, Denmark, Czechia. The table below shows the probability for each country that they qualify for playoff given that they end up 2nd in the group. Most likely the unlucky runner-up will come from group B.

Group Country                     Playoff  2nd

F	Russia	100.000	0.143
I	Spain	100.000	0.583
H	England	100.000	18.088
G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	100.000	28.142
G	Greece	100.000	71.858
E	Iceland	100.000	81.062
H	Ukraine	100.000	81.912
I	France	100.000	99.418
F	Portugal	100.000	99.857
C	Sweden	100.000	100.000
D	Romania	99.993	75.443
A	Croatia	99.989	100.000
D	Hungary	99.933	5.364
D	Turkey	99.880	19.193
E	Slovenia	95.823	18.938
B	Armenia	44.156	0.062
B	Bulgaria	1.896	42.407
B	Denmark	0.004	55.537
B	Czechia	0.000	1.995

The table below shows the probabity that a country will be seeded in the UEFA playoff given that they qualify for the playoff.

    Gr Country                           Seeded   Playoff

1	I	Spain	100.000	0.583
10	A	Croatia	98.497	99.989
11	F	Portugal	100.000	99.857
12	G	Greece	99.851	71.858
15	F	Russia	0.698	0.143
17	H	England	100.000	18.088
18	G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	57.691	28.142
22	C	Sweden	45.458	100.000
23	B	Denmark	81.818	0.002
25	I	France	3.988	99.418
26	H	Ukraine	48.763	81.912
29	E	Slovenia	31.030	18.147
30	D	Hungary	0.000	5.361
31	D	Romania	0.000	75.438
49	D	Turkey	0.000	19.170
54	E	Iceland	0.000	81.062
55	B	Armenia	0.000	0.027
64	B	Bulgaria	0.000	0.804

Here are the country that still can be World Champions 2014!

Country	Qual	Oct-1	Apr-1	Champ	Oct-1	Apr-1
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.6	+0.0	+9.0
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.08	+0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	9.6	+0.0	+1.6
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	4.4	+0.0	-0.4
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.09	-0.0	+0.7
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.009	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	3.25	+0.0	+1.4
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.46	+0.0	+0.4
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.029	+0.0	-0.1
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.019	-0.0	+0.0
Switzerland	100	+0.1	+5.2	0.66	+0.0	+0.4
Germany	100	+0.1	+0.7	11.1	+0.0	-1.9
Belgium	100	+0.7	+49.4	1.02	+0.0	+0.9
Spain	99.95	+0.1	+0.4	21.4	-0.1	-8.7
Russia	99.93	+6.9	+0.9	0.75	+0.1	-0.6
Chile	99.85	+0.9	+23.4	0.67	+0.0	+0.4
Ecuador	99.8	+6.6	+1.0	0.31	+0.0	-0.3
Honduras	97.32	+8.2	+40.5	0.008	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	97.3	+5.8	+45.5	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	96.43	+10.9	+8.1	0.23	+0.0	-0.5
England	95.6	+5.2	+2.4	2.95	+0.2	-1.5
Uruguay	90.3	-3.7	+60.6	2.31	-0.1	+2.2
Bosnia and Herzegov	85	-3.4	+14.9	0.18	+0.0	+0.1
Portugal	72.1	-5.4	-1.5	1.29	-0.1	-0.7
Greece	71.5	+4.7	+3.8	0.3	+0.0	+0.1
Cameroon	71.3	+13.1	+48.4	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Burkina Faso	68.4	+22.6	+63.5	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Croatia	66.9	+0.9	-21.8	0.67	+0.0	-0.2
Mexico	65	+17.0	-31.9	0.05	+0.0	-2.2
Sweden	61.1	+4.1	-4.4	0.69	+0.0	+0.0
Ukraine	59.1	+2.3	+47.8	0.2	+0.0	+0.2
France	51.1	-2.8	-17.4	0.45	-0.0	-0.0
Egypt	51.1	+0.3	-23.4	0.016	-0.0	-0.0
Ghana	48.9	-0.3	+10.2	0.015	+0.0	+0.0
Algeria	31.6	-22.6	+15.0	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	28.7	-13.1	-27.9	0.0004	+0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	28.5	-3.3	-7.9	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Romania	20.3	+3.9	-4.1	0.01	+0.0	-0.0
Jordan	10	-3.0	-8.0	0	-0.0	-0.0
Panama	9.1	-21.9	-46.8	0.003	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	7.4	+2.9	+5.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Turkey	5	+2.2	+4.4	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	3.57	-10.9	-13.7	0	-0.0	+0.0
Slovenia	3.56	+2.2	+3.3	0.0003	+0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	2.7	-5.8	-1.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Hungary	1.28	-3.5	-5.1	0.0004	-0.0	-0.0
Bulgaria	0.19	-7.7	-4.9	0	-0.0	-0.0
Armenia	0.002	-0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Denmark	0.001	-4.1	-11.8	0	-0.0	-0.0