Quarterfinals in Europe - Probabilities

Champions League

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Liverpool	87%	51%	28%
Man City	77%	48%	26%
Bayern	77%	40%	21%
Chelsea	50%	22%	10%
Real Madrid	50%	22%	10%
Atletico	23%	8%	2%
Villarreal	23%	6%	2%
Benfica	13%	3%	< 1%

 

Europa League

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	76%	49%	31%
RB Leipzig	52%	39%	19%
Atalanta	48%	35%	16%
West Ham	61%	28%	16%
Lyon	39%	14%	7%
Rangers	55%	15%	5%
Frankfurt	24%	9%	4%
Braga	45%	11%	3%

 

Europa Conference League

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Leicester	51%	32%	19%
Marseille	74%	38%	17%
PSV	49%	29%	17%
Feyenoord	55%	32%	15%
Roma	63%	27%	14%
Slavia Praha	45%	23%	10%
Bodoe Glimt	37%	12%	5%
PAOK	26%	7%	2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PL: Liverpool are trailing 1.6 points behind City

Liverpool are trailing 1.6 points behind City.

 Hot Teams
Chelsea: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.6 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	91%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	91%	< 1%
Seventh team	92%	3.7%	1.8%
Eighth team	7%	3.4%	1.5%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Man City	89.5	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
69	Liverpool	87.9	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Chelsea	79.1	+48	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.77%
51	Arsenal	68.8	+17	< 1%	99.0%	95.2%	84%	63%	< 1%	4.3%	31%	63%
50	Man United	64.9	+12	< 1%	95.4%	83%	55%	19%	< 1%	14%	62%	19%
48	Tottenham	63.9	+12	< 1%	91%	74%	44%	15%	< 1%	18%	57%	15%
45	West Ham	59.5	+12	< 1%	64%	31%	12%	2.8%	< 1%	31%	25%	8%
46	Wolves	58.4	+6	< 1%	46%	16%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	15%	< 1%
33	Leicester	50.6	-4	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	22%	< 1%
36	Aston Villa	48.7	-0	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Southampton	46.0	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%
34	Crystal Palace	45.3	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%
33	Brighton	43.0	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Newcastle	42.4	-20	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Brentford	38.8	-20	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Leeds	37.1	-34	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	36.3	-17	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	35.6	-24	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
21	Watford	30.8	-34	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	25.2	-52	99.43%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Burnley vs Man City	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	45%	53%	68%
Liverpool	54%	47%	32%
Liverpool vs Watford	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	42%	28%	22%
Man City	58%	72%	78%

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Arsenal	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	52%	60%	73%
Man United	24%	20%	14%
Tottenham	19%	16%	11%
Tottenham vs West Ham	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	21%	11%	7%
West Ham	6%	7%	11%
Arsenal	60%	66%	66%
Man United vs Leicester	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	23%	13%	9%
Arsenal	60%	67%	69%
Tottenham	14%	16%	18%
Tottenham vs Newcastle	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	19%	10%	7%
Arsenal	61%	66%	68%
Man United	18%	20%	21%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Tottenham vs West Ham	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	84%	69%	55%
West Ham	22%	33%	51%
Tottenham vs Newcastle	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	79%	66%	58%
West Ham	30%	35%	38%
Wolves	13%	17%	19%
Man United	80%	83%	84%
Man United vs Leicester	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	87%	75%	67%
Wolves	14%	17%	19%
West Ham	31%	35%	37%
Wolves vs Aston Villa	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	21%	11%	7%
Man United	79%	83%	84%
Tottenham	70%	73%	75%
West Ham vs Everton	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	39%	26%	21%
Tottenham	70%	74%	77%
Man United	79%	83%	85%
Wolves vs Leeds	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	20%	10%	7%
Man United	79%	83%	84%
Tottenham	70%	74%	75%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Tottenham vs West Ham	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	54%	64%	79%
Tottenham	95.7%	89%	82%
Wolves vs Aston Villa	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	55%	39%	30%
West Ham	59%	68%	71%
Aston Villa	< 1%	1.0%	3.6%
Tottenham	88%	91%	93%
Wolves vs Leeds	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	54%	38%	30%
West Ham	59%	68%	72%
Tottenham	89%	92%	93%
West Ham vs Everton	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	70%	56%	49%
Wolves	41%	50%	55%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Newcastle	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	70%	54%	46%
Newcastle	95.9%	98.3%	99.7%
Leeds	69%	73%	75%
Leeds vs Southampton	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	82%	68%	60%
Everton	56%	61%	63%
Watford	13%	16%	18%
Wolves vs Leeds	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	66%	74%	86%
Everton	61%	59%	55%
West Ham vs Everton	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	54%	62%	76%
Leeds	73%	71%	66%
Burnley	70%	68%	64%
Burnley vs Man City	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	82%	71%	63%
Leeds	68%	71%	73%
Everton	55%	59%	61%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	48%	24%	29%	Newcastle
Wolves	58%	21%	21%	Leeds
Aston Villa	34%	24%	42%	Arsenal
Tottenham	48%	24%	29%	West Ham
Liverpool	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Chelsea	79%	13%	8%	Brentford
Leeds	44%	24%	32%	Southampton
Wolves	54%	22%	24%	Aston Villa
Burnley	19%	21%	61%	Man City
Brighton	60%	21%	19%	Norwich
Man United	62%	20%	18%	Leicester
West Ham	62%	20%	18%	Everton
Tottenham	59%	21%	20%	Newcastle

CL: Last Eight

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	100%	68%	43%	25%
Liverpool	100%	67%	42%	24%
Bayern	100%	63%	37%	20%
Chelsea	100%	54%	26%	12%
Real Madrid	100%	54%	26%	12%
Atletico	100%	36%	11%	4%
Villarreal	100%	34%	10%	3%
Benfica	100%	23%	5%	1%

 

CL: Ten teams left

 

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	100%	68%	43%	25%
Liverpool	100%	68%	43%	24%
Bayern	100%	64%	37%	20%
Real Madrid	100%	54%	26%	12%
Chelsea	94%	51%	25%	11%
Atletico	100%	37%	11%	4%
Juventus	60%	21%	6%	2%
Villarreal	40%	13%	4%	1%
Benfica	100%	23%	5%	1%
Lille	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: Liverpool trailing 3p behind

City lose points against Palace and Pool are trailing three points in average points (in simulations). Watford win against Southampton and now have a 15% hope to avoid relegation.

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.84%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.2%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	91%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	>99.99%	91%	2.1%
Seventh team	91%	6%	2.1%
Eighth team	9%	3.5%	1.5%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Man City	89.5	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
66	Liverpool	86.5	+61	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
59	Chelsea	79.0	+48	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.74%
51	Arsenal	70.0	+19	< 1%	99.46%	97.4%	91%	74%	< 1%	2.5%	23%	73%
50	Man United	64.9	+12	< 1%	96.0%	85%	60%	17%	< 1%	12%	64%	20%
45	Tottenham	62.3	+10	< 1%	84%	61%	31%	7%	< 1%	23%	53%	7%
45	West Ham	59.5	+12	< 1%	67%	35%	13%	2.4%	< 1%	29%	30%	8%
46	Wolves	58.4	+6	< 1%	49%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	19%	< 1%
33	Leicester	50.6	-4	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	22%	< 1%
36	Aston Villa	48.7	-0	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Southampton	46.0	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%
34	Crystal Palace	45.3	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%
33	Brighton	44.4	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Newcastle	42.4	-20	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Brentford	38.9	-20	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Leeds	37.1	-34	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	36.3	-17	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	35.6	-24	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
21	Watford	30.8	-34	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	25.2	-52	99.41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	40%	24%	36%	Tottenham
Arsenal	33%	24%	43%	Liverpool
Everton	48%	24%	29%	Newcastle
Wolves	58%	21%	21%	Leeds
Aston Villa	34%	24%	42%	Arsenal

 

ECL: Leicester, Feyernord and Roma favorites

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Leicester	87%	57%	37%	22%
Feyenoord	100%	57%	31%	16%
Roma	85%	48%	26%	13%
Slavia Praha	95%	48%	22%	10%
Marseille	73%	39%	20%	10%
PSV	43%	27%	16%	9%
Alkmaar	48%	26%	14%	7%
Bodoe Glimt	52%	23%	10%	4%
FC Kobenhavn	57%	22%	8%	3%
Rennes	13%	8%	4%	2%
PAOK	66%	18%	5%	1%
Basel	27%	9%	3%	< 1%
Gent	34%	10%	3%	< 1%
Vitesse	15%	5%	2%	< 1%
LASK	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Partizan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

EL: Barcelona, Leipzig and Sevilla favorites

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	85%	59%	39%	24%
RB Leipzig	100%	60%	33%	17%
Sevilla	71%	46%	29%	16%
Atalanta	55%	31%	16%	8%
Lyon	68%	33%	14%	6%
Porto	32%	20%	11%	6%
Leverkusen	45%	24%	12%	6%
West Ham	29%	18%	10%	5%
Frankfurt	79%	33%	12%	5%
Rangers	95%	31%	9%	3%
Betis	21%	11%	5%	2%
Braga	77%	22%	6%	2%
Monaco	23%	10%	4%	1%
Crvena Zvezda	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	15%	2%	< 1%	< 1%