PL: Burnely with 80% chance on new contract

Burnley beat the Wolves and now have a 80% probability to avoid relegation, three points ahead of Everton in expected points.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Burnley: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.98%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	100%	4.9%
Seventh team	100%	25%	16%
Eighth team	40%	18%	9%

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

80

Man City

90.6

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

58%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

79

Liverpool

89.8

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

42%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

65

Chelsea

77.2

+46

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.96%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.96%

60

Arsenal

68.6

+16

< 1%

>99.99%

99.92%

98.3%

69%

< 1%

< 1%

31%

69%

58

Tottenham

65.8

+19

< 1%

99.97%

99.54%

93%

31%

< 1%

< 1%

69%

31%

54

Man United

60.7

+5

< 1%

95.6%

79%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

14%

83%

< 1%

49

West Ham

56.2

+7

< 1%

60%

14%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31%

9%

36%

49

Wolves

55.0

+2

< 1%

30%

4.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43%

6%

< 1%

44

Leicester

53.2

-2

< 1%

14%

1.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12%

36%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

46.5

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

45.6

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

41

Brighton

45.4

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Aston Villa

45.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brentford

44.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

44.4

-17

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Burnley

37.8

-17

20%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

34.8

-25

72%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.2

-40

99.39%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

24.8

-52

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Leeds vs Man City (10.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	65%	54%	32%
Man City	35%	46%	68%
Newcastle vs Liverpool (9.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	22%	32%	52%
Man City	78%	68%	48%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	10%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	10%	< 1%	-	12%	12%	90%
93	26%	16%	88%	12%	< 1%	-
92	41%	15%	77%	29%	17%	68%
91	51%	9%	62%	44%	15%	55%
90	68%	18%	50%	54%	10%	43%
89	79%	11%	36%	70%	17%	28%
88	86%	7%	23%	80%	10%	18%
87	93%	7%	15%	87%	7%	11%
86	96.7%	3.2%	8%	94%	6%	6%
85	98.4%	1.7%	4%	96.8%	3.0%	2.6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Leicester (7.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	40%	23%	17%
Arsenal	59%	77%	83%
West Ham vs Arsenal (7.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	59%	67%	83%
Tottenham	40%	33%	17%

	Arsenal			West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	2.4%	2.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	2.4%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	8%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%
72	17%	9%	99.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	23%	6%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.9%	3.0%	93%
70	39%	16%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	7%	88%
69	53%	14%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-	15%	3.3%	73%
68	63%	10%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	-	29%	14%	55%
67	78%	15%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	-	43%	14%	38%
66	87%	9%	36%	< 1%	< 1%	-	53%	10%	24%
65	92%	5%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	-	69%	17%	11%
64	96.7%	4.7%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	37%	80%	11%	5%
63	98.7%	2.0%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	87%	7%	1.8%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Brentford (6.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	89%	73%	63%
Wolves	3.4%	9%	13%
West Ham	42%	50%	53%
Man United vs Chelsea (6.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	94%	82%	74%
Wolves	2.0%	6%	9%
West Ham	40%	46%	49%
Wolves vs Brighton (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	9%	2.4%	1.2%
Man United	81%	86%	87%

	Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal			West Ham			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	4.9%	4.9%	100%	53%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	87%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	4.9%	< 1%	-	69%	17%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	92%	5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	15%	10%	99.5%	80%	11%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.7%	4.7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
63	28%	13%	99.4%	87%	7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.7%	2.0%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	36%	7%	97.1%	94%	7%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	99.46%	< 1%	99%	3.9%	2.9%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	72%
61	55%	19%	92%	97.5%	3.2%	98.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.91%	< 1%	95%	9%	4.7%	77%	2.4%	1.8%	59%
60	70%	15%	88%	98.9%	1.4%	95%	1.6%	1.2%	59%	100%	< 1%	88%	12%	3.6%	65%	3.2%	< 1%	41%
59	78%	9%	75%	99.77%	< 1%	87%	4.5%	2.9%	49%	100%	< 1%	-	23%	11%	54%	9%	6%	25%
58	90%	11%	61%	100%	< 1%	71%	6%	1.8%	44%	100%	< 1%	-	34%	11%	48%	18%	10%	15%
57	95.5%	6%	47%	100%	< 1%	-	14%	8%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	44%	10%	41%	24%	6%	7%
56	97.7%	2.2%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	23%	9%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	60%	16%	37%	42%	18%	2.2%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Brighton (6.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	58%	40%	31%
West Ham	71%	80%	84%
Leicester	44%	50%	54%
Man United	96.2%	98.0%	98.6%
West Ham vs Arsenal (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	86%	73%	65%
Wolves	41%	50%	55%
Man United vs Brentford (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	99.0%	94%	90%
Tottenham vs Leicester (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	43%	48%	59%
Wolves	51%	48%	41%
West Ham	77%	76%	72%
Man United	97.6%	97.2%	95.8%

	Wolves			West Ham			Man United			Leicester
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	2.4%	1.8%	98%	9%	4.7%	99.8%	55%	19%	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	3.2%	< 1%	96%	12%	3.6%	99.1%	70%	15%	99.6%	1.6%	1.2%	96%
59	9%	6%	89%	23%	11%	97.7%	78%	9%	98.3%	4.5%	2.9%	90%
58	18%	10%	80%	34%	11%	94%	90%	11%	95%	6%	1.8%	83%
57	24%	6%	71%	44%	10%	87%	95.5%	6%	89%	14%	8%	73%
56	42%	18%	56%	60%	16%	79%	97.7%	2.2%	77%	23%	9%	61%
55	60%	18%	45%	72%	12%	67%	99.50%	1.8%	61%	32%	8%	52%
54	70%	9%	37%	81%	9%	55%	100%	< 1%	47%	47%	16%	45%
53	85%	15%	27%	90%	9%	48%	100%	< 1%	-	60%	12%	40%
52	93%	9%	20%	95.0%	5%	41%	100%	< 1%	-	70%	10%	37%
51	96.3%	3.1%	16%	97.6%	2.5%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	82%	12%	35%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Chelsea (7.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	49%	28%	20%
Burnley	67%	79%	85%
Leeds	85%	92%	94%
Watford vs Burnley (5.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	71%	80%	91%
Everton	35%	28%	20%
Watford	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Crystal Palace vs Leeds (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	88%	93%	98.0%
Everton	30%	27%	24%
Crystal Palace	>99.99%	99.91%	99.6%

	Everton			Burnley			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
42	1.3%	< 1%	99%	12%	5%	99.96%	34%	9%	99.95%
41	3.5%	2.3%	97%	18%	6%	99.8%	45%	11%	99.6%
40	7%	3.3%	89%	29%	12%	98.6%	59%	14%	98.1%
39	10%	3.6%	78%	40%	11%	95.7%	70%	11%	96.0%
38	19%	9%	65%	51%	11%	92%	79%	10%	90%
37	29%	9%	50%	66%	14%	84%	89%	9%	81%
36	38%	10%	34%	76%	11%	73%	94%	5%	71%
35	53%	15%	21%	84%	8%	62%	97.2%	3.1%	54%
34	66%	12%	11%	92%	8%	46%	99.35%	2.2%	38%
33	76%	10%	4.7%	96.2%	4.0%	30%	100%	< 1%	25%
32	87%	11%	1.4%	98.3%	2.1%	19%	100%	< 1%	-
31	93%	6%	< 1%	99.63%	1.4%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
30	96.6%	3.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Crystal Palace	54%	22%	23%	Leeds
Man United	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea
Newcastle	18%	20%	61%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	66%	19%	15%	Norwich
Wolves	57%	22%	22%	Brighton
Southampton	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Watford	43%	24%	33%	Burnley
Leeds	17%	20%	63%	Man City
Everton	22%	22%	57%	Chelsea
Tottenham	54%	22%	23%	Leicester
West Ham	42%	24%	34%	Arsenal
Man United	70%	17%	13%	Brentford

 

PL: Advantage Arsenal (69%) in CL race

The race on the 4th CL spot is a two-horse race after United lost at Emirates. Arsenal have a 2.9 advantage in average points over Tottenham, which translates to finishing 4th in 69% of the simulations. The most frequent outcome is 10 points in the final five games (16%) followed by 7 points ( 15%), as detailed below.

Liverpool need to win the derby today to keep a 43% chance on the title. Otherwise they are down to 25% (or 17% if Everton win)

Hot Teams
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Southampton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.93%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	100%	6%
Seventh team	100%	23%	14%
Eighth team	39%	18%	11%

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

80

Man City

90.6

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

61%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

76

Liverpool

89.3

+66

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

39%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

76.3

+46

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.83%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.83%

60

Arsenal

68.6

+16

< 1%

>99.99%

99.84%

98.0%

69%

< 1%

< 1%

31%

69%

58

Tottenham

65.8

+19

< 1%

99.92%

99.14%

92%

31%

< 1%

< 1%

69%

31%

54

Man United

60.7

+5

< 1%

92%

71%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

20%

75%

< 1%

49

West Ham

56.9

+7

< 1%

57%

18%

1.6%

< 1%

< 1%

26%

12%

36%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

41%

11%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

12%

< 1%

44

Leicester

53.2

-2

< 1%

10%

1.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

8%

35%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

46.5

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brighton

46.0

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

45.6

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Aston Villa

45.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brentford

44.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Southampton

44.5

-17

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

27

Burnley

36.2

-18

35%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

35.1

-25

59%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.2

-40

99.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

24.8

-52

99.97%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Leeds vs Man City (10.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	61%	50%	30%
Man City	39%	50%	70%
Newcastle vs Liverpool (8.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	20%	29%	48%
Man City	80%	71%	52%
Liverpool vs Everton (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	43%	25%	17%
Man City	57%	75%	83%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	10%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	10%	< 1%	-	10%	10%	90%
93	26%	16%	90%	10%	< 1%	-
92	41%	15%	79%	25%	15%	69%
91	51%	9%	66%	38%	13%	56%
90	68%	18%	55%	48%	10%	44%
89	79%	11%	40%	65%	17%	28%
88	86%	7%	28%	75%	10%	19%
87	93%	7%	19%	83%	8%	12%
86	96.7%	3.2%	11%	91%	7%	6%
85	98.4%	1.7%	6%	95%	3.9%	2.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Leicester (7.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	40%	22%	17%
Arsenal	60%	77%	83%
West Ham vs Arsenal (7.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	59%	67%	83%
Tottenham	40%	33%	17%

	Arsenal			West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	2.4%	2.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	2.4%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	8%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%
72	17%	9%	99.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	23%	6%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.9%	3.0%	93%
70	39%	16%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	7%	89%
69	53%	14%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-	15%	3.3%	73%
68	63%	10%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	29%	14%	55%
67	78%	15%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	56%	43%	14%	38%
66	87%	9%	36%	< 1%	< 1%	-	53%	10%	24%
65	92%	5%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	39%	69%	17%	11%
64	96.7%	4.7%	10%	2.2%	1.4%	37%	80%	11%	5%
63	98.7%	2.0%	4%	3.3%	1.2%	35%	87%	7%	1.7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Chelsea (7.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	89%	73%	63%
Wolves	6%	13%	18%
West Ham	42%	48%	52%
Man United vs Brentford (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	82%	63%	53%
Wolves	8%	18%	23%
West Ham	45%	52%	56%
Burnley vs Wolves (5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	5%	9%	22%
Man United	81%	78%	68%
Wolves vs Brighton (3.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	17%	7%	3.7%
Man United	71%	80%	82%

	Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal			Wolves			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	5.0%	5.0%	99.9%	53%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	87%	9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	5.0%	< 1%	-	69%	17%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	92%	5%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
64	15%	10%	98.4%	80%	11%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.7%	4.7%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	2.2%	1.4%	98%
63	28%	13%	97.1%	87%	7%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.7%	2.0%	99.1%	1.3%	< 1%	85%	3.3%	1.2%	92%
62	36%	7%	92%	94%	7%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	99.46%	< 1%	97%	3.9%	2.6%	69%	8%	4.6%	83%
61	55%	19%	85%	97.5%	3.2%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.90%	< 1%	90%	8%	4.3%	56%	13%	5%	76%
60	70%	15%	76%	98.9%	1.4%	89%	1.6%	1.2%	57%	100%	< 1%	79%	12%	3.7%	39%	19%	6%	62%
59	78%	9%	61%	99.78%	< 1%	79%	4.4%	2.9%	46%	100%	< 1%	-	23%	11%	22%	31%	12%	52%
58	90%	11%	47%	100%	< 1%	59%	6%	1.8%	41%	100%	< 1%	-	35%	12%	13%	42%	11%	46%
57	95.5%	6%	32%	100%	< 1%	-	14%	8%	37%	100%	< 1%	-	45%	10%	6%	53%	11%	39%
56	97.7%	2.2%	19%	100%	< 1%	-	23%	9%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	61%	17%	2.0%	67%	14%	37%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Burnley vs Wolves (6.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	45%	55%	72%
West Ham	79%	74%	65%
Man United	96.8%	95.5%	92%
Wolves vs Brighton (6.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	66%	49%	40%
West Ham	68%	77%	82%
Man United	94%	96.3%	97.4%
Leicester	41%	46%	49%
West Ham vs Arsenal (4.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	83%	70%	63%
Wolves	50%	59%	64%
Man United	93%	95.6%	96.4%
Chelsea vs West Ham (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	69%	75%	87%
Wolves	60%	55%	47%
Man United	95.6%	95%	93%
Man United vs Brentford (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	97.6%	91%	85%

	Wolves			West Ham			Man United			Leicester
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	1.3%	< 1%	99.8%	3.3%	1.2%	99.9%	28%	13%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	3.9%	2.6%	98.7%	8%	4.6%	99.7%	36%	7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
61	8%	4.3%	96.8%	13%	5%	98.9%	55%	19%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	12%	3.7%	93%	19%	6%	97.1%	70%	15%	98.4%	1.6%	1.2%	92%
59	23%	11%	85%	31%	12%	93%	78%	9%	95.0%	4.4%	2.9%	83%
58	35%	12%	76%	42%	11%	86%	90%	11%	89%	6%	1.8%	74%
57	45%	10%	65%	53%	11%	77%	95.5%	6%	81%	14%	8%	63%
56	61%	17%	52%	67%	14%	68%	97.7%	2.2%	67%	23%	9%	53%
55	74%	13%	42%	77%	10%	56%	99.49%	1.8%	52%	32%	8%	46%
54	83%	8%	34%	85%	8%	48%	100%	< 1%	38%	47%	16%	40%
53	92%	9%	25%	93%	7%	42%	100%	< 1%	-	60%	12%	38%
52	96.4%	4.6%	19%	96.3%	3.8%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	70%	10%	36%
51	98.3%	1.9%	15%	98.4%	2.0%	36%	100%	< 1%	-	82%	12%	35%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Watford vs Burnley (7.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	54%	64%	80%
Everton	49%	42%	30%
Watford	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leeds	95%	94%	91%
Burnley vs Wolves (7.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	78%	62%	52%
Everton	31%	44%	51%
Leeds	91%	94%	95.3%
Everton vs Chelsea (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	62%	43%	33%
Burnley	50%	64%	71%
Leeds	89%	93%	95%
Liverpool vs Everton (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	38%	48%	67%
Burnley	67%	60%	46%
Leeds	94%	92%	87%

	Watford			Everton			Burnley			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
34	2.1%	1.5%	21%	69%	12%	24%	79%	11%	43%	99.35%	2.2%	44%
33	4.6%	2.4%	9%	78%	10%	14%	86%	7%	29%	100%	< 1%	30%
32	7%	2.5%	3%	88%	10%	7%	92%	6%	18%	100%	< 1%	-
31	14%	7%	< 1%	94%	6%	3.0%	96.1%	4.3%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
30	22%	8%	< 1%	97.1%	3.0%	< 1%	98.2%	2.1%	3%	100%	< 1%	-
29	31%	8%	< 1%	99.34%	2.2%	< 1%	99.29%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
28	46%	15%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
27	58%	13%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
26	69%	11%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	82%	13%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	90%	8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	95%	4.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
22	98.7%	3.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Chelsea	64%	19%	16%	West Ham
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Wolves
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Southampton
Liverpool	82%	12%	7%	Everton
Crystal Palace	54%	22%	24%	Leeds
Man United	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea
Newcastle	18%	20%	61%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	66%	19%	15%	Norwich
Wolves	57%	22%	21%	Brighton
Southampton	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Watford	43%	24%	33%	Burnley
Leeds	17%	20%	63%	Man City
Everton	22%	22%	57%	Chelsea
Tottenham	54%	22%	23%	Leicester
West Ham	42%	24%	34%	Arsenal
Man United	70%	17%	12%	Brentford

Hot Teams
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Southampton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.93%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	100%	6%
Seventh team	100%	23%	14%
Eighth team	39%	18%	11%

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

80

Man City

90.6

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

61%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

76

Liverpool

89.3

+66

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

39%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

76.3

+46

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.83%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.83%

60

Arsenal

68.6

+16

< 1%

>99.99%

99.84%

98.0%

69%

< 1%

< 1%

31%

69%

58

Tottenham

65.8

+19

< 1%

99.92%

99.14%

92%

31%

< 1%

< 1%

69%

31%

54

Man United

60.7

+5

< 1%

92%

71%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

20%

75%

< 1%

49

West Ham

56.9

+7

< 1%

57%

18%

1.6%

< 1%

< 1%

26%

12%

36%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

41%

11%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

12%

< 1%

44

Leicester

53.2

-2

< 1%

10%

1.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

8%

35%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

46.5

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brighton

46.0

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

45.6

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Aston Villa

45.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brentford

44.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Southampton

44.5

-17

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

27

Burnley

36.2

-18

35%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

35.1

-25

59%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.2

-40

99.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

24.8

-52

99.97%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Leeds vs Man City (10.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	61%	50%	30%
Man City	39%	50%	70%
Newcastle vs Liverpool (8.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	20%	29%	48%
Man City	80%	71%	52%
Liverpool vs Everton (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	43%	25%	17%
Man City	57%	75%	83%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	10%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	10%	< 1%	-	10%	10%	90%
93	26%	16%	90%	10%	< 1%	-
92	41%	15%	79%	25%	15%	69%
91	51%	9%	66%	38%	13%	56%
90	68%	18%	55%	48%	10%	44%
89	79%	11%	40%	65%	17%	28%
88	86%	7%	28%	75%	10%	19%
87	93%	7%	19%	83%	8%	12%
86	96.7%	3.2%	11%	91%	7%	6%
85	98.4%	1.7%	6%	95%	3.9%	2.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Leicester (7.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	40%	22%	17%
Arsenal	60%	77%	83%
West Ham vs Arsenal (7.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	59%	67%	83%
Tottenham	40%	33%	17%

	Arsenal			West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	2.4%	2.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	2.4%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	8%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%
72	17%	9%	99.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	23%	6%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.9%	3.0%	93%
70	39%	16%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	7%	89%
69	53%	14%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-	15%	3.3%	73%
68	63%	10%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	29%	14%	55%
67	78%	15%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	56%	43%	14%	38%
66	87%	9%	36%	< 1%	< 1%	-	53%	10%	24%
65	92%	5%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	39%	69%	17%	11%
64	96.7%	4.7%	10%	2.2%	1.4%	37%	80%	11%	5%
63	98.7%	2.0%	4%	3.3%	1.2%	35%	87%	7%	1.7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Chelsea (7.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	89%	73%	63%
Wolves	6%	13%	18%
West Ham	42%	48%	52%
Man United vs Brentford (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	82%	63%	53%
Wolves	8%	18%	23%
West Ham	45%	52%	56%
Burnley vs Wolves (5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	5%	9%	22%
Man United	81%	78%	68%
Wolves vs Brighton (3.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	17%	7%	3.7%
Man United	71%	80%	82%

	Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal			Wolves			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	5.0%	5.0%	99.9%	53%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	87%	9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	5.0%	< 1%	-	69%	17%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	92%	5%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
64	15%	10%	98.4%	80%	11%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.7%	4.7%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	2.2%	1.4%	98%
63	28%	13%	97.1%	87%	7%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.7%	2.0%	99.1%	1.3%	< 1%	85%	3.3%	1.2%	92%
62	36%	7%	92%	94%	7%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	81%	99.46%	< 1%	97%	3.9%	2.6%	69%	8%	4.6%	83%
61	55%	19%	85%	97.5%	3.2%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.90%	< 1%	90%	8%	4.3%	56%	13%	5%	76%
60	70%	15%	76%	98.9%	1.4%	89%	1.6%	1.2%	57%	100%	< 1%	79%	12%	3.7%	39%	19%	6%	62%
59	78%	9%	61%	99.78%	< 1%	79%	4.4%	2.9%	46%	100%	< 1%	-	23%	11%	22%	31%	12%	52%
58	90%	11%	47%	100%	< 1%	59%	6%	1.8%	41%	100%	< 1%	-	35%	12%	13%	42%	11%	46%
57	95.5%	6%	32%	100%	< 1%	-	14%	8%	37%	100%	< 1%	-	45%	10%	6%	53%	11%	39%
56	97.7%	2.2%	19%	100%	< 1%	-	23%	9%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	61%	17%	2.0%	67%	14%	37%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Burnley vs Wolves (6.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	45%	55%	72%
West Ham	79%	74%	65%
Man United	96.8%	95.5%	92%
Wolves vs Brighton (6.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	66%	49%	40%
West Ham	68%	77%	82%
Man United	94%	96.3%	97.4%
Leicester	41%	46%	49%
West Ham vs Arsenal (4.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	83%	70%	63%
Wolves	50%	59%	64%
Man United	93%	95.6%	96.4%
Chelsea vs West Ham (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	69%	75%	87%
Wolves	60%	55%	47%
Man United	95.6%	95%	93%
Man United vs Brentford (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	97.6%	91%	85%

	Wolves			West Ham			Man United			Leicester
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	1.3%	< 1%	99.8%	3.3%	1.2%	99.9%	28%	13%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	3.9%	2.6%	98.7%	8%	4.6%	99.7%	36%	7%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
61	8%	4.3%	96.8%	13%	5%	98.9%	55%	19%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	12%	3.7%	93%	19%	6%	97.1%	70%	15%	98.4%	1.6%	1.2%	92%
59	23%	11%	85%	31%	12%	93%	78%	9%	95.0%	4.4%	2.9%	83%
58	35%	12%	76%	42%	11%	86%	90%	11%	89%	6%	1.8%	74%
57	45%	10%	65%	53%	11%	77%	95.5%	6%	81%	14%	8%	63%
56	61%	17%	52%	67%	14%	68%	97.7%	2.2%	67%	23%	9%	53%
55	74%	13%	42%	77%	10%	56%	99.49%	1.8%	52%	32%	8%	46%
54	83%	8%	34%	85%	8%	48%	100%	< 1%	38%	47%	16%	40%
53	92%	9%	25%	93%	7%	42%	100%	< 1%	-	60%	12%	38%
52	96.4%	4.6%	19%	96.3%	3.8%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	70%	10%	36%
51	98.3%	1.9%	15%	98.4%	2.0%	36%	100%	< 1%	-	82%	12%	35%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Watford vs Burnley (7.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	54%	64%	80%
Everton	49%	42%	30%
Watford	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leeds	95%	94%	91%
Burnley vs Wolves (7.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	78%	62%	52%
Everton	31%	44%	51%
Leeds	91%	94%	95.3%
Everton vs Chelsea (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	62%	43%	33%
Burnley	50%	64%	71%
Leeds	89%	93%	95%
Liverpool vs Everton (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	38%	48%	67%
Burnley	67%	60%	46%
Leeds	94%	92%	87%

	Watford			Everton			Burnley			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
34	2.1%	1.5%	21%	69%	12%	24%	79%	11%	43%	99.35%	2.2%	44%
33	4.6%	2.4%	9%	78%	10%	14%	86%	7%	29%	100%	< 1%	30%
32	7%	2.5%	3%	88%	10%	7%	92%	6%	18%	100%	< 1%	-
31	14%	7%	< 1%	94%	6%	3.0%	96.1%	4.3%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
30	22%	8%	< 1%	97.1%	3.0%	< 1%	98.2%	2.1%	3%	100%	< 1%	-
29	31%	8%	< 1%	99.34%	2.2%	< 1%	99.29%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
28	46%	15%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
27	58%	13%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
26	69%	11%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	82%	13%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	90%	8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	95%	4.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
22	98.7%	3.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Chelsea	64%	19%	16%	West Ham
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Wolves
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Southampton
Liverpool	82%	12%	7%	Everton
Crystal Palace	54%	22%	24%	Leeds
Man United	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea
Newcastle	18%	20%	61%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	66%	19%	15%	Norwich
Wolves	57%	22%	21%	Brighton
Southampton	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Watford	43%	24%	33%	Burnley
Leeds	17%	20%	63%	Man City
Everton	22%	22%	57%	Chelsea
Tottenham	54%	22%	23%	Leicester
West Ham	42%	24%	34%	Arsenal
Man United	70%	17%	12%	Brentford