Sunday, April 24, 2022

PL: Burnely with 80% chance on new contract

Burnley beat the Wolves and now have a 80% probability to avoid relegation, three points ahead of Everton in expected points.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Burnley: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Man United: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected


EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%100%
Fifth team100%100%< 1%
FA cup winners100%100%99.98%
League cup winners100%100%100%
Sixth team100%100%4.9%
Seventh team100%25%16%
Eighth team40%18%9%


Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39


Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City90.6+65< 1%100%100%100%100%58%< 1%< 1%100%
79Liverpool89.8+65< 1%100%100%100%100%42%< 1%< 1%100%
65Chelsea77.2+46< 1%100%100%100%99.96%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.96%
60Arsenal68.6+16< 1%>99.99%99.92%98.3%69%< 1%< 1%31%69%
58Tottenham65.8+19< 1%99.97%99.54%93%31%< 1%< 1%69%31%
54Man United60.7+5< 1%95.6%79%8%< 1%< 1%14%83%< 1%
49West Ham56.2+7< 1%60%14%< 1%< 1%< 1%31%9%36%
49Wolves55.0+2< 1%30%4.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%43%6%< 1%
44Leicester53.2-2< 1%14%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%12%36%< 1%
43Newcastle46.5-19< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Crystal Palace45.6+3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Brighton45.4-13< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Aston Villa45.4-4< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Brentford44.7-11< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Southampton44.4-17< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
33Leeds40.3-308%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
30Burnley37.8-1720%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
28Everton34.8-2572%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Watford27.2-4099.39%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Norwich24.8-52>99.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Important matches for title race
Leeds vs Man City (10.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Liverpool65%54%32%
Man City35%46%68%
Newcastle vs Liverpool (9.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Liverpool22%32%52%
Man City78%68%48%



Man CityLiverpool
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
9510%10%100%< 1%< 1%-
9410%< 1%-12%12%90%
9326%16%88%12%< 1%-
9241%15%77%29%17%68%
9151%9%62%44%15%55%
9068%18%50%54%10%43%
8979%11%36%70%17%28%
8886%7%23%80%10%18%
8793%7%15%87%7%11%
8696.7%3.2%8%94%6%6%
8598.4%1.7%4%96.8%3.0%2.6%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Leicester (7.8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Tottenham40%23%17%
Arsenal59%77%83%
West Ham vs Arsenal (7.5%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal59%67%83%
Tottenham40%33%17%



ArsenalWest HamTottenham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
752.4%2.4%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
742.4%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
738%6%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%
7217%9%99.2%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7123%6%98.9%< 1%< 1%-3.9%3.0%93%
7039%16%91%< 1%< 1%-11%7%88%
6953%14%83%< 1%< 1%-15%3.3%73%
6863%10%72%< 1%< 1%-29%14%55%
6778%15%51%< 1%< 1%-43%14%38%
6687%9%36%< 1%< 1%-53%10%24%
6592%5%23%< 1%< 1%-69%17%11%
6496.7%4.7%10%< 1%< 1%37%80%11%5%
6398.7%2.0%4%< 1%< 1%-87%7%1.8%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Brentford (6.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man United89%73%63%
Wolves3.4%9%13%
West Ham42%50%53%
Man United vs Chelsea (6.2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man United94%82%74%
Wolves2.0%6%9%
West Ham40%46%49%
Wolves vs Brighton (2.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Wolves9%2.4%1.2%
Man United81%86%87%



Man UnitedTottenhamLeicesterArsenalWest HamWolves
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
664.9%4.9%100%53%10%100%< 1%< 1%-87%9%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
654.9%< 1%-69%17%100%< 1%< 1%-92%5%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6415%10%99.5%80%11%99.99%< 1%< 1%-96.7%4.7%99.9%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%94%
6328%13%99.4%87%7%99.9%< 1%< 1%-98.7%2.0%99.8%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6236%7%97.1%94%7%99.5%< 1%< 1%83%99.46%< 1%99%3.9%2.9%84%< 1%< 1%72%
6155%19%92%97.5%3.2%98.3%< 1%< 1%-99.91%< 1%95%9%4.7%77%2.4%1.8%59%
6070%15%88%98.9%1.4%95%1.6%1.2%59%100%< 1%88%12%3.6%65%3.2%< 1%41%
5978%9%75%99.77%< 1%87%4.5%2.9%49%100%< 1%-23%11%54%9%6%25%
5890%11%61%100%< 1%71%6%1.8%44%100%< 1%-34%11%48%18%10%15%
5795.5%6%47%100%< 1%-14%8%38%100%< 1%-44%10%41%24%6%7%
5697.7%2.2%29%100%< 1%-23%9%35%100%< 1%-60%16%37%42%18%2.2%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Brighton (6.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Wolves58%40%31%
West Ham71%80%84%
Leicester44%50%54%
Man United96.2%98.0%98.6%
West Ham vs Arsenal (4.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
West Ham86%73%65%
Wolves41%50%55%
Man United vs Brentford (2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man United99.0%94%90%
Tottenham vs Leicester (2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Leicester43%48%59%
Wolves51%48%41%
West Ham77%76%72%
Man United97.6%97.2%95.8%



WolvesWest HamMan UnitedLeicester
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
612.4%1.8%98%9%4.7%99.8%55%19%99.88%< 1%< 1%-
603.2%< 1%96%12%3.6%99.1%70%15%99.6%1.6%1.2%96%
599%6%89%23%11%97.7%78%9%98.3%4.5%2.9%90%
5818%10%80%34%11%94%90%11%95%6%1.8%83%
5724%6%71%44%10%87%95.5%6%89%14%8%73%
5642%18%56%60%16%79%97.7%2.2%77%23%9%61%
5560%18%45%72%12%67%99.50%1.8%61%32%8%52%
5470%9%37%81%9%55%100%< 1%47%47%16%45%
5385%15%27%90%9%48%100%< 1%-60%12%40%
5293%9%20%95.0%5%41%100%< 1%-70%10%37%
5196.3%3.1%16%97.6%2.5%38%100%< 1%-82%12%35%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Chelsea (7.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton49%28%20%
Burnley67%79%85%
Leeds85%92%94%
Watford vs Burnley (5.9%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Burnley71%80%91%
Everton35%28%20%
Watford1.3%< 1%< 1%
Crystal Palace vs Leeds (2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Leeds88%93%98.0%
Everton30%27%24%
Crystal Palace>99.99%99.91%99.6%



EvertonBurnleyLeeds
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
421.3%< 1%99%12%5%99.96%34%9%99.95%
413.5%2.3%97%18%6%99.8%45%11%99.6%
407%3.3%89%29%12%98.6%59%14%98.1%
3910%3.6%78%40%11%95.7%70%11%96.0%
3819%9%65%51%11%92%79%10%90%
3729%9%50%66%14%84%89%9%81%
3638%10%34%76%11%73%94%5%71%
3553%15%21%84%8%62%97.2%3.1%54%
3466%12%11%92%8%46%99.35%2.2%38%
3376%10%4.7%96.2%4.0%30%100%< 1%25%
3287%11%1.4%98.3%2.1%19%100%< 1%-
3193%6%< 1%99.63%1.4%8%100%< 1%-
3096.6%3.3%< 1%100%< 1%1%100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Crystal Palace54%22%23%Leeds
Man United39%24%37%Chelsea
Newcastle18%20%61%Liverpool
Aston Villa66%19%15%Norwich
Wolves57%22%22%Brighton
Southampton46%24%30%Crystal Palace
Watford43%24%33%Burnley
Leeds17%20%63%Man City
Everton22%22%57%Chelsea
Tottenham54%22%23%Leicester
West Ham42%24%34%Arsenal
Man United70%17%13%Brentford



 

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