PL: Leeds with 7% risk of relagation

 As detailed below, Everton take more than 38 points only in 10% of the simulation, which means 38 points for Burnley and Leeds is enough to be 90% certain to avoid relegation.

	Everton			Burnley			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
42	1.3%	< 1%	99%	12%	5%	99.96%	33%	9%	99.94%
41	3.5%	2.2%	97%	18%	6%	99.7%	48%	15%	99.6%
40	7%	3.3%	89%	29%	12%	98.5%	60%	13%	98.1%
39	10%	3.6%	78%	40%	11%	95.7%	71%	11%	96.0%
38	19%	9%	65%	51%	11%	92%	83%	13%	90%
37	29%	9%	47%	66%	15%	83%	91%	8%	81%
36	38%	10%	32%	76%	11%	72%	95.2%	4.2%	71%
35	54%	15%	20%	84%	8%	62%	98.8%	3.6%	54%
34	66%	12%	10%	92%	8%	45%	100%	1.2%	38%
33	76%	10%	4.0%	96.2%	4.0%	30%	100%	< 1%	-
32	87%	11%	1.6%	98.3%	2.1%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
31	93%	6%	< 1%	99.64%	1.4%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
30	96.6%	3.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

80

Man City

90.6

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

58%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

79

Liverpool

89.8

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

42%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

65

Chelsea

77.2

+46

< 1%

100%

100%

>99.99%

99.96%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.96%

60

Arsenal

68.6

+16

< 1%

>99.99%

99.92%

98.3%

69%

< 1%

< 1%

31%

69%

58

Tottenham

65.8

+19

< 1%

99.97%

99.53%

93%

31%

< 1%

< 1%

69%

31%

54

Man United

60.7

+5

< 1%

95.7%

79%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

14%

83%

< 1%

49

West Ham

56.2

+7

< 1%

60%

14%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31%

9%

36%

49

Wolves

55.0

+2

< 1%

31%

4.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43%

6%

< 1%

44

Leicester

53.2

-2

< 1%

14%

1.9%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12%

36%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

46.5

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

41

Brighton

45.4

-13

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Aston Villa

45.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Crystal Palace

44.8

+2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brentford

44.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

44.4

-17

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Leeds

40.4

-29

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30

Burnley

37.7

-17

21%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

34.8

-25

73%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.2

-40

99.41%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

24.8

-52

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%