Group G

Germany wins the group if they at least draw against the United States (82%). They come second if they lose and the winner of other match does catch up on goal difference, which gives them an estimated 99.7% chance to advance to last 16.

United States wins the group if they win against Germany (18%). They secure second place if they draw (20%). If the United States lose, they need either that other match is a draw or that Portugal wins with small margin. United States have two and five goals margin against Ghana and Portugal respectively. This gives United States 78% chance to advance to last 16.

Portugal needs to win against Ghana and they need to catch up 5 goals against United States (or 8 against Germany) giving them 12%.

Ghana needs to win against Portugal and hope that Germany defeats United States. If one of the wins is with at least two goals margin, Gahan ends second. If both wins are with one goal margin, most scored goals decides (US: 4; Ghana: 3). If United States defeats Germany Ghana needs to catch up five goals against Germany. In total this gives Ghana 9%.

With German coaches in both Germany and the United States, there will be suggestions that the former colleagues (WC06) have an agreement. The model predicts the chance for a draw to 20% even without taking into consideration the circumstances that there is a lot to lose for both team in case of a loss.

1.	Germany	6-2	4
2.	United States	4-3	4
3.	Ghana	3-4	1
4.	Portugal	2-6	1

Possible outcomes in Group G

P	First		Second
60%	Germany		United States
18%	United States		Germany
12%	Germany		Portugal
10%	United States		Ghana
<0.2%	United States		Portugal
<0.2%	United States		Ghana