The figure below shows the estimated chances for the team in Group A to survive the group stage. The estimations are based on 1,000,000 monte carlo simulations (see below for model) given the standing at each minute. As the results in Group A were quite expected, the favourites won, not very much changed. Brazil reached above 95.5% and it seems the key game will be between Croatia and Mexico in last round.

Model

The games are simulated using a simplistic model. The probability of scoring only depends on which teams are playing. As estimate of teams' strength we use Elo ratings, which can be translated to a probability of of winning against a given opponent. Only correction is that Brazil is given 82 bonus Elo points to reflect their home ground advantage. Having the winning probability, we select scoring rates (goals per hour) that yield this probability with the condition that the geometric mean of the two rates equals unity. That mean a typical game will have three goals or slightly more if the sides are uneven. This boils down to modeling the match as two Poisson processes.