in silico soccer: December 2015

Monday, December 14, 2015

CL: Round 16 Draw

Below are the estimated chances each team has to survive the next round. The number within brackets describe how the draw changed the chances for each team. Playing the surprise Gent is as expected considered a good draw for Wolfsburg, while playing Barcelona cannot be considered particularly good. Bayern vs Juventus is interesting as it was considered a bad draw for both of the team.

Real Madrid	89%	(+2)	Roma	11%	(-17)
Wolfsburg	84%	(+29)	Gent	16%	(+7)
Atletico	87%	(+12)	PSV	13%	(-3)
Man City	72%	(-0.8)	Dynamo Kyiv	28%	(+3)
Barcelona	85%	(-3)	Arsenal	15%	(-20)
Bayern	67%	(-13)	Juventus	33%	(-10)
Chelsea	44%	(-17)	Paris SG	56%	(11)
Zenit	42%	(-2)	Benfica	58%	(23)

Euro 16: the Draw

Summary of the draw of Euro 16 finals. The column 'before' indicate the country's chance to reach round of last 16, and 'after' indicates the chance to reach last 16 given the group draw. Iceland has the most advantageous draw and gained 11%. Likewise, Ireland had the toughest draw and lost 8%.

Group F is the easist group and the teams in that group gained a total of 17.7%. Teams in group E lost in total 22% which makes the toughest group.

A	before	after	change
France	95.5	96.2	0.65
Switzerland	72.2	75.1	2.9
Romania	65.1	68.8	3.8
Albania	30.3	29.3	-0.98
Total	263	269	6.4

B	before	after	change
England	90.8	90.9	0.12
Slovakia	63.2	66.3	3.1
Russia	63.4	61.1	-2.4
Wales	46.7	50.1	3.5
Total	264	268	4.3

C	before	after	change
Germany	97.9	98.8	0.91
Ukraine	73.3	78.2	4.9
Poland	60.3	66.7	6.4
Northern Ireland	22.9	21.3	-1.7
Total	255	265	10.5

D	before	after	change
Spain	92.5	90.5	-1.9
Croatia	76.8	72.9	-3.8
Czechia	63.1	56.2	-6.9
Turkey	50.3	46.4	-3.9
Total	283	266	-16.6

E	before	after	change
Belgium	87.6	81.3	-6.3
Italy	81.8	78.6	-3.2
Sweden	70	64.6	-5.3
Ireland	50.3	42.8	-7.5
Total	290	267	-22.3

F	before	after	change
Portugal	87.8	89.4	1.5
Austria	64.1	68.1	4
Iceland	44.4	55.6	11.1
Hungary	49.6	50.7	1
Total	246	264	17.7

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Possible matches in round of 16

The teams will be drawn so a group winner plays against a runner-up. Teams from the same group, nor from the same country can play in this round. Taking these restrictions into account the possible matches have the following probabilities:

	Paris	PSV	Benf	Juve	Roma	Ars	Kyiv	Gent
Real Madrid	0	13	13	14	13	20	14	13
Wolfsburg	13	0	13	14	13	20	14	13
Atletico	13	13	0	14	13	20	14	13
Man City	17	17	17	0	17	0	17	17
Barcelona	13	13	13	14	0	20	14	13
Bayern	14	14	14	15	14	0	15	14
Chelsea	17	17	17	17	17	0	0	17
Zenit	13	13	13	14	13	20	14	0

Paris, e.g., have higher probability to end up with Man City or Chelsea because these team cannot play Arsenal. Similarly, Arsenal can only draw five teams as they cannot play Bayern, Chelsea or Man City and these five teams are equally likely at 20%.

CL: Match Day 6: Group E-H

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	6	14	15-4	Barcelona
100%	6	6	11-16	Roma
0%	6	6	13-12	Leverkusen
0%	6	5	5-12	BATE

Roma failed to win against BATE, but were saved by Barcelona who drew Leverkusen and thereby stopped Leverkusen from passing Roma.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	6	15	19-3	Bayern
100%	6	9	12-10	Arsenal
0%	6	9	6-13	Olympiakos
0%	6	3	3-14	Dinamo Zagreb

Arsenal needed to turn around a 2-3 deficit from London. Giroud scored in 29th, 49th and when he converted the penalty in 67th minute and completed his hattrick the ticket to knock out stage was clinched.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	6	13	13-3	Chelsea
100%	6	11	8-4	Dynamo Kyiv
0%	6	10	9-8	Porto
0%	6	0	1-16	M Tel Aviv

Kyiv needed a win to clinch qualification and scored the winner a quarter into first half. Then Porto needed to win on Stamford Bridge, but Chelsea scored an early goal and killed the group in second half with a second goal.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-
100%	6	15	13-6	Zenit
100%	6	10	8-7	Gent
0%	6	6	5-9	Valencia
0%	6	4	5-9	Lyon

Valencia needed to win against Lyon to have a chance, but never really close and lost with 2-0.

CL: Match Day 6: Group A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	16	19-3	Real Madrid
100%	6	13	12-1	Paris SG
0%	6	3	7-14	Shakhtar
0%	6	3	1-21	Malmoe

Favorites Real Madrid and Paris SG qualified for the knockout stage.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	9-6	Wolfsburg
100%	6	10	8-7	PSV
0%	6	8	7-7	Man United
0%	6	4	5-9	CSKA Moskva

This group was the only one still alive in terms of which teams pass on to the knockout stage. And the evening did indeed turn out quite exciting. Wolfsburg, Man United, and PSV started the evening with 91%, 62%, and 48% chance, respectively. Man U took the lead in the group with an early goal bumping their chances to 76%, but Wolfsburg equalized within a couple of minutes the standing were back on square one. When Wolfsburg scored another goal ten minutes later they bumped up from 91% to a 97% chance, while Man U now were struggling at 47% as they needed either themselves or Moskva to score. Forty-five minutes later, with a quarter remaining, the score was still 2-1 in Wolfsburg and scoreless in Eindhoven, which meant, according to our estimations, Wolfsburg now had a 99.8% chance, Man U were struggling at 28% and PSV had 72%. In the 76th minute de Jong fouled inside the box and Moskva converted the kick from 12 yards to a goal. Suddenly PSV were down to 14% and Man U flew up to 86%. Two minutes later PSV equalized through de Jong gaining back PSV's chances to 76%. Man U, again needed to score or rely on Moskva, which were trailing a win and ticket to Europa League. Indeed, four minutes later Man U were helped by a Wolfsburg own goal, which meant a draw and Man U were up 80%. But they could not hold that for long, as two minutes later Wolfsburg scored the winner, which means Man U were again down to 15% and when PSV another two minutes later scored the group was settled and done. The upset was reality and Man U is the biggest disappointment in the first four groups.