Premier League

Some stats after the weekend's matches. Expected outcome shows the average outcome in the simulations. Important matches are ranked with respect to how much they influence which teams win the league. For each outcome: home win (1), draw (X), and away win (2) the chances for top 4 teams are given. The last table shows as before the chances for each team given that they take x points.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	74.3	67-43	60
Tottenham	71.4	67-34	24
Arsenal	69.4	64-40	10.1
Man City	67.6	69-41	5.86

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci	Importance
Man City	-	Arsenal		60.9	24.5	5.54	9.07		62	25.1	9.66	3.28		56.4	22.1	20.1	1.45	28
Leicester	-	Everton		70.2	18.4	7.3	4.12		53.6	27.7	11.8	6.93		44.6	32.5	14.3	8.56	25.9
Leicester	-	Southampton		70.3	18.3	7.27	4.13		53.8	27.5	11.8	6.85		45	32.3	14.2	8.47	25.5
Sunderland	-	Leicester		47.2	31.1	13.7	8.1		55.7	26.5	11.2	6.55		71.9	17.4	6.81	3.84	25.5
Leicester	-	West Ham		69.5	18.8	7.47	4.25		52.6	28.1	12.2	7.11		43.8	33	14.5	8.68	25.3
Crystal Palace	-	Leicester		49	30	13.1	7.78		57.7	25.4	10.7	6.21		73.5	16.6	6.35	3.55	24.7
Leicester	-	Swansea		68.4	19.5	7.75	4.4		51.7	28.6	12.4	7.27		42.9	33.3	14.9	8.91	23.5
Stoke	-	Tottenham		66.1	15.1	11.8	6.93		62.3	20.9	10.6	6.22		52.1	35.6	7.85	4.49	22.7
Liverpool	-	Tottenham		65.8	15.5	11.7	6.91		62	21.4	10.5	6.13		51.7	36.1	7.75	4.41	22.5
Leicester	-	Newcastle		67.2	20.1	8.09	4.61		50.1	29.6	12.8	7.49		41.7	33.9	15.3	9.21	21.7
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		67.3	13.2	12.3	7.23		63.9	18.5	11.1	6.48		54.3	32.5	8.36	4.82	21.6
Tottenham	-	Man United		54.5	32.2	8.47	4.86		64.1	18.2	11.1	6.57		67.4	13	12.4	7.23	21.2
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		64.9	17	11.4	6.69		60.6	23.3	10.2	5.89		50.1	38.3	7.39	4.22	20.8
Man United	-	Leicester		52.3	28.3	12.2	7.16		61	23.6	9.78	5.67		76	15.1	5.68	3.22	20.6
Tottenham	-	Southampton		55.5	30.8	8.74	4.97		64.5	17.4	11.3	6.76		67.8	12.3	12.5	7.37	19.1
Chelsea	-	Leicester		53.2	27.8	12	6.99		61.6	23.1	9.62	5.6		76.5	14.8	5.59	3.15	18.6
Tottenham	-	West Brom		56.5	29.2	9.04	5.2		65.5	16.1	11.6	6.83		68.4	11.4	12.7	7.52	16.5
Everton	-	Arsenal		63	25.9	4.75	6.36		61.6	24.8	7.43	6.16		56.5	21.9	16.4	5.24	15.5
Tottenham	-	Bournemouth		56.9	28.7	9.15	5.26		65.6	15.8	11.7	6.92		68.7	11.1	12.7	7.54	15.2
West Ham	-	Arsenal		63.2	25.8	4.53	6.45		61.8	24.9	7.12	6.15		56.7	22.2	15.8	5.27	15.1

Points	Leicester		Tottenham		Arsenal		Man City
87	0.0546	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	0.247	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	0.418	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	0.544	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	1.79	99.9	0.212	97.7	-	-	-	-
81	2.14	99.8	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	3.35	99.3	0.872	93.1	-	-	-	-
79	5.78	97.9	1.31	88.9	0.458	87.5	-	-
78	6.1	95.9	1.55	82.9	-	-	0.331	83.8
77	8.19	91.8	4.51	75.4	1.62	70.6	-	-
76	10	84.5	4.69	64.4	2.24	58.9	1.29	63.4
75	9.45	75.8	6.47	53.2	2.55	46.7	1.53	51.1
74	10.4	63	9.93	41.1	6.73	33.6	2.12	38.6
73	10	47.9	9.12	28.3	6.43	21.9	5.05	25.1
72	8.19	34.8	10.7	18.5	8.36	13	5.03	15.2
71	7.3	22	11.6	10.7	11.5	6.83	7.24	8.23
70	5.7	12.1	9.3	5.3	9.89	3.11	9.62	3.53
69	3.87	6.18	8.81	2.42	10.8	1.24	8.97	1.47
68	2.79	2.7	7.31	0.906	10.4	0.379	10.5	0.476
67	1.73	1.02	4.94	0.3	8	0.106	10.5	0.137
66	0.956	0.241	3.7	0.0866	6.96	0.023	8.79	0.0296
65	0.524	0.0955	2.39	0.0209	5.23	0	8.22	0.0073
64	0.254	0.0394	1.3	0	3.39	0	6.62	0.00151