PL: Leicester three (of five) wins from title

Leicester three wins from the title with five rounds to go. They can, in other words, afford to lose twice and still secure their title. Tottenham is the only contender in practice (7%) as Arsenal failed to beat West Ham.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	79.5	65-38	91.7
Tottenham	73.1	68-31	6.68
Arsenal	71.1	68-39	1.51
Man City	67.4	68-40	0.114

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci	Importance
Leicester	-	Swansea		96.4	3.14	0.439	0.02		87.7	9.7	2.43	0.148		81.3	14.5	3.85	0.372	23.7
Leicester	-	West Ham		96.7	2.87	0.393	0.0154		88.6	9.08	2.24	0.134		82.3	13.8	3.57	0.341	23.6
Leicester	-	Everton		96.9	2.72	0.355	0.0172		89	8.81	2.07	0.114		83.2	13.1	3.43	0.319	22.9
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		95.2	2.93	1.7	0.127		92.7	5.66	1.52	0.125		83.9	14.9	1.12	0.0791	18.1
Stoke	-	Tottenham		95.8	2.25	1.8	0.144		93.7	4.6	1.58	0.125		86	12.8	1.15	0.0749	18.1
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		96.2	1.8	1.81	0.151		94.5	3.72	1.67	0.13		87.9	10.7	1.27	0.0863	14.8
Man United	-	Leicester		88.3	9.31	2.18	0.184		92.7	5.88	1.32	0.0678		98.1	1.68	0.206	0.00452	13.2
Tottenham	-	Southampton		88.8	9.81	1.31	0.0969		94.9	3.28	1.71	0.127		96.4	1.59	1.83	0.149	12.7
Chelsea	-	Leicester		88.8	8.95	2.11	0.175		93	5.7	1.21	0.0594		98.2	1.62	0.199	0.00653	11.8
Tottenham	-	West Brom		89.6	8.95	1.37	0.0996		95	3.07	1.74	0.149		96.7	1.39	1.81	0.134	9.99
Man City	-	Arsenal		92.6	6.9	0.314	0.209		92.3	6.73	0.939	0.0163		89.3	6.16	4.55	0.00201	9.64
Sunderland	-	Arsenal		92.8	6.93	0.149	0.112		92.6	6.8	0.478	0.121		90.8	6.52	2.52	0.112	5.06
Arsenal	-	Crystal Palace		91.2	6.57	2.08	0.107		92.6	6.87	0.382	0.127		92.8	6.94	0.117	0.136	3.3
Arsenal	-	West Brom		91.3	6.56	2.05	0.117		92.6	6.9	0.392	0.107		92.8	6.98	0.094	0.111	3.19
Arsenal	-	Norwich		91.4	6.57	1.95	0.112		92.6	6.95	0.336	0.133		92.7	7.05	0.124	0.101	2.67
Arsenal	-	Aston Villa		91.4	6.61	1.87	0.11		92.6	6.92	0.321	0.123		92.9	6.88	0.108	0.139	2.25
Chelsea	-	Man City		91.8	6.67	1.53	0.00464		91.7	6.78	1.53	0.0308		91.6	6.61	1.46	0.319	0.924
Southampton	-	Man City		91.8	6.69	1.51	0.0012		91.7	6.77	1.53	0.0242		91.6	6.61	1.49	0.253	0.756
Swansea	-	Man City		91.8	6.68	1.53	0.00272		91.8	6.69	1.53	0.0175		91.6	6.67	1.49	0.213	0.584
Newcastle	-	Man City		91.8	6.66	1.5	0.00472		91.8	6.71	1.51	0.0168		91.6	6.67	1.51	0.191	0.464

Points	Leicester		Tottenham		Arsenal		Man City
87	0.914	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	2.85	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	5.53	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	3.34	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	12.4	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	12.9	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	9.86	98.2	1.78	61.6	-	-	-	-
79	16.8	98.3	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	11.8	93.5	4.82	35	-	-	-	-
77	7.98	83	7.44	22.8	3.69	20.9	-	-
76	8.23	78.3	4.91	15	-	-	-	-
75	4	57.6	14.8	6.56	8.13	5.4	1.44	5.76
74	1.78	39.9	13.1	2.68	11.7	1.99	-	-
73	1.22	28.1	10.5	1.04	6.87	0.692	4.05	0.654
72	0.321	12.7	15.3	0.184	17.8	0.104	5.28	0.0927