PL: Tottenham won against Stoke

Tottenham won against Stoke and is only two four points behind in expected outcome (average outcome in simulations). The probability that they will catch up that deficit is estimated to 18% - one in six.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	78.6	65-39	81.6
Tottenham	74.8	71-30	17.9
Arsenal	69.9	66-39	0.291
Man City	69.2	70-38	0.277

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci	Importance
Leicester	-	Swansea		90.3	9.72	0	0		73.3	25.6	0.553	0.52		63.2	35	0.916	0.881	42
Leicester	-	Everton		91.5	8.48	0	0		75.6	23.5	0.443	0.428		66	32.5	0.762	0.722	41.8
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		89.4	9.85	0.39	0.361		84.2	15.2	0.275	0.267		63.9	35.8	0.111	0.122	37.4
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		92.8	6.31	0.484	0.414		89.1	10.3	0.333	0.335		71.9	27.8	0.165	0.175	35.9
Tottenham	-	Southampton		74	25.6	0.188	0.186		90	9.29	0.372	0.374		93.6	5.52	0.486	0.427	31.4
Tottenham	-	West Brom		76	23.6	0.207	0.218		90.8	8.4	0.398	0.353		94.1	4.97	0.516	0.437	25.4
Man United	-	Leicester		75	24.1	0.448	0.427		83	16.5	0.234	0.224		94.5	5.46	0	0	25.4
Chelsea	-	Leicester		75.9	23.3	0.421	0.405		83.4	16.1	0.235	0.216		94.8	5.24	0	0	22.7

Points	Leicester		Tottenham		Arsenal		Man City
85	1.62	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	4.45	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	9.28	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	4.28	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	16.9	95.1	4.87	80.2	-	-	-	-
79	17.7	95.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	9.32	85.4	9.83	45.5	-	-	-	-
77	16.6	70.3	15.1	36.4	-	-	-	-
76	10.3	63.2	6.9	19.8	-	-	-	-
75	3.99	40	19.8	9.02	5.38	4.72	4.36	5.51
74	4.03	25.5	15	4.93	-	-	-	-
73	1.46	14.3	8.33	1.15	10.5	0.346	9.2	0.399