Euro: Round of 16

Round of 16 gave us a couple of penalty shootouts and one or two upsets. Most notably, Iceland's triumph against England. Other than that most results were more or less expected, except perhaps that reigning champs, Spain, were kicked out by Italy.

Looking ahead the table below shows estimated chance for each team to reach semi-final, final, and win the tournament. The Icelandic Saga continues and based on this model they would win one of nine matches against France, Wales would win one of five quarter-finals against Belgium, and Italy and Poland would win roughly one of three matches afgainst Germany and Portugal, respectively.

Country	Semi	Final	Champions
France	89	54	39
Germany	69	34	23
Belgium	79	45	17
Portugal	67	36	13
Italy	31	10	5
Poland	33	13	2.8
Wales	21	5.6	0.76
Iceland	11	1.9	0.5