euro: Group Stage

With the last groups completed we can summarize the group stage. By comparing with estimated probabilities before the group started, we can list the greatest disappointments in the group stage.

Disappointments

Country	Chance Before Tournament
Ukraine	77%
Austria	73%
Russia	66%
Romania	66%
Turkey	65%
Sweden	53%
Czechia	49%
Albania	33%

Likewise by looking at the countries that did go through to the next round we can list the positive surprises.

Positive Surprises

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
Northern Ireland	29	7	1.7	0.35	0.053
Wales	41	12	2.7	0.59	0.11
Iceland	49	14	3.5	0.82	0.15
Ireland	53	20	7.3	2.4	0.65
Hungary	54	18	4.6	1.2	0.26
Croatia	63	29	12	4.8	1.6
Poland	64	26	10	3.4	0.92
Slovakia	66	29	9.6	3.1	0.9
Switzerland	68	28	11	3.7	0.99
Italy	78	40	20	8.9	3.6
Belgium	85	49	26	13	5.9
Spain	91	63	41	25	13
Portugal	91	53	27	13	5.7
England	94	65	39	22	11
Germany	96	74	50	31	19
France	98	76	58	39	27

Notably, not many surprises among the countries pushing through. Most countries had 50% chance or more basically because two thirds of the countries survive the group stage. As we would call head a surprise when flipping a coin we see not much of surprises here. With Northern Ireland as possible with exception, who were predicted to go through only three out of ten times.

Here are the estimated chances at this point in the:

Country	Last 16	QF	SF	F	Champions
France	100	83	56	34	25
Germany	100	79	47	25	18
Belgium	100	76	61	37	14
England	100	82	36	17	11
Spain	100	64	33	16	11
Portugal	100	61	40	24	9
Croatia	100	39	22	11	3.1
Italy	100	36	14	4.7	2.5
Switzerland	100	50	19	8.3	1.9
Poland	100	50	19	8.1	1.9
Hungary	100	24	14	4.6	0.78
Wales	100	54	14	4.2	0.61
Slovakia	100	21	5.9	1.4	0.57
Ireland	100	17	5.5	1.4	0.54
Northern Ireland	100	46	11	2.8	0.35
Iceland	100	18	2.8	0.47	0.14